One week out, polls as close as ever

Monday's third presidential debate will focus exclusively on foreign policy, and could play a critical role in the election's outcome. Rebecca Jarvis and Anthony Mason discussed it with pollster and Republican strategist Frank Luntz.

One week out from election day, the presidential race could scarcely be closer, with polls showing the candidates tied nationally and in several key swing states.

A new Pew Research poll released yesterday shows a dead even national race, with President Obama and Mitt Romney tied among likely voters at 47 percent apiece. The previous Pew poll, conducted at the beginning of October, showed Romney ahead of the president by 4 points nationally, 49 to 45 percent.

Pew's latest survey also reflects a turnout edge for Romney, whose voters are more enthusiastic about casting their ballot - 76 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters describe themselves as likely to vote, while only 62 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters say the same.

The Pew poll, which surveyed 1,495 likely voters nationwide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 points, was conducted between October 22 and 28.

The close national race is reflected in several new swing-state surveys as well, with Mr. Obama and Romney statistically tied in new surveys from Florida, Colorado, and North Carolina.

In Florida, a CNN/Opinion Research poll released yesterday shows Romney ahead of the president by one point, 50 to 49 percent, a statistically insignificant edge for the Republican. The CNN poll, conducted between October 25 and 28, surveyed 770 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.

Meanwhile, yesterday's American Research Group (ARG) survey of likely voters in Colorado also shows Romney with a statistically insignificant one point lead over the president, 48 to 47 percent. The ARG survey polled 600 likely Colorado voters between October 25 and 28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

Finally, despite some recent polls suggesting that North Carolina might be slipping out of Mr. Obama's grasp, a new Elon University survey released yesterday shows the race all tied up in the Tarheel state, with both candidates netting the support of 45 percent of respondents. The Elon survey polled 1,238 likely voters between October 21 and 26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.79 points.

  • Jake Miller

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