Polls show Donald Trump with clear lead in one early state
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump maintains a strong lead in New Hampshire but is battling Texas Sen. Ted Cruz for the top spot in Iowa, two new polls of Republican voters show.
In New Hampshire, Trump is the clear leader with 32 percent support among likely Republican voters, a new Monmouth University poll shows. He's up from 26 percent support in November. Cruz saw his support rise by five percentage points, to 14 percent, and is tied with Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who also received 14 percent. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida, got 12 percent, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie received 8 percent support. All other candidates received five percent support or less.
The most precipitous drop was neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who saw 16 percent support in November drop to just 3 percent in the latest poll.
The percentage of voters who say they are locked into their choice has grown from 20 percent in November to 32 percent in the latest survey. Roughly one in four voters, 42 percent, say they have a strong preference but are willing to consider other candidates.
"As Granite State voters start to firm up their decision, it's looking more and more unlikely that Trump will be toppled from his perch. The real fight is for second place," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
About one in four likely Republican voters say they have seen at least one of the presidential candidates in person. The most commonly-seen candidates are Christie and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. Fifteen percent of likely voters have been to one of her events (though she is the first choice of just 5 percent of those surveyed). Thirteen percent say they have attended one of Trump's events, and fewer than 10 percent of likely New Hampshire GOP voters have seen Cruz, Carson or Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky.
Interestingly, five percent have seen Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and three percent have seen Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, who is also competing for the Democratic nomination.
Iowa is a different story. There Trump is locked in a dead heat with Cruz, getting 31 percent to Cruz's 29 percent - within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus four percent.
The results are virtually unchanged from the organization's last poll in December, when Trump got 28 percent and Cruz 27 percent. Rubio went from 15 percent in December to 14 percent in January, and Carson dropped from 10 percent to 7 percent. Christie got 4 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush just 3 percent.
A full quarter of voters, 26 percent say they would never vote for Trump or Bush. Cruz does much better on that question, with only 7 percent of voters saying they would never vote for him. Five percent of voters say they are undecided, and 46 percent said they may still change their mind.
"The Iowa Republican Caucuses are tight as a tick entering the final two weeks of the campaign. Voters like Sen. Ted Cruz better than Donald Trump and give him much higher scores for honesty, empathy, experience and for sharing their values," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
"But they see the New York businessman as better able to handle some key issues. Trump is way ahead on handling the economy and terrorism."
Jobs have retaken the top spot as the chief concern among Iowa voters, with 27 percent naming it as the most important issue for them. Eighteen percent named terrorism. In the December survey, which was taken in the aftermath of the San Bernardino shooting, 30 percent said terrorism was the most important issue and 21 percent named the economy and jobs.
The Monmouth University Poll surveyed 414 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters by telephone from Jan. 7 to 10. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University poll surveyed 602 likely Iowa Republican voters by land line and cell phone from Jan. 5 to 10. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.