WASHINGTON -- Fighters with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, are likely to put up a stiff defense of Mosul but eventually lose their grip and morph into an insurgency, a U.S. Army general said Wednesday.
Maj. Gen. Gary Volesky, commander of U.S. and coalition land forces in, said this transition from conventional combat to counter-insurgency is deemed so predictable that the U.S. training regimen for Iraqi security forces is already being adjusted to prepare them for insurgent threats.
Volesky, speaking to reporters at the Pentagon via video link from his headquarters in Baghdad, also disclosed that U.S. Army Apache helicopters have entered the battle for Mosul. He declined to provide specifics, citing the need to preserve operational security, but said they have been striking ISIS targets at night. The mere presence of the Apaches on the battlefield has been a confidence booster for Iraqi soldiers, he said.
The Apaches, he said, can “see a long range at night” and strike targets from a great distance. “That’s what they’re doing,” he said.
Iraqi Kurds have recaptured about 20 villages in the area east of Mosul from the extremists in the last two days since the offensive to retake the city began, CBS News correspondent Holly Williams reports from the front line.
Volesky said some ISIS forces already are giving up their positions in the outskirts of Mosul and pulling back into the city. He said he expects this trend to continue. They are then likely to attempt to block the entry of Iraqi forces into the city, using a “full-fledged conventional defense.”
At some point, he predicted, the Iraqi forces will prevail, and at that point, “I expect they (ISIS fighters) are going to go into insurgency mode.”
“That’s my assessment,” he added. “That’s what we’re preparing the Iraqis for.”
Earlier this month, a Canadian general who runs a portion of the coalition training of Iraqi security forces told reporters that retaking Mosul from ISIS would open a new, more dangerous phase of the counter-ISIS fight. Brig. Gen. Dave Anderson said the period between the fall of Mosul and the ultimate defeat of ISIS “is probably when it’s most dangerous.”
“Literally, what we’ve been talking about is how do we position police forces and minister of interior forces in order to be able to fight the enemy the day after Mosul and its new metastasized form,” Anderson said Oct. 5.
Separately, another U.S. general said the fight for Mosul, launched this week by Iraqi security forces supported by U.S. air power and advisers, could take months and is likely to feature periods of fierce combat.
Army Gen. Joseph Votel, the commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, said the duration of the battle will be determined in part by how ISIS reacts and adjusts to the unfolding Iraqi offensive. He noted that the extremist group has had more than two years to prepare its defenses in and around the sprawling Tigris River city.
The militants thus far have put up significant resistance in villages surrounding Mosul. They have sent trucks loaded with explosives careening toward the front lines and fired mortars to slow the Iraqi forces’ advance since Monday. Iraqi soldiers are in the lead combat role; the U.S. is supporting them with a variety of aircraft, artillery and advisers but the Pentagon has said repeatedly that none of the Americans are on the front lines.
Speaking at the Center for American Progress, a Washington think tank, Votel said Iraqi officials have publicly spoken of the Mosul battle lasting for weeks or months. He said he is comfortable with the Iraqis’ timeframe and said it was important to credit ISIS with being an adaptive enemy capable of adjusting to setbacks.
“I’ll give you an example,” he said. “The operation we did to Manbij, in northern Syria, took about 71 days to complete, from start to finish.” That was completed in August. Votel noted that another key objective in Syria - Raqqa, the self-proclaimed ISIS capital - is about three times the size of Manbij.
“Mosul is about three times the size of Raqqa,” he said, suggesting that Mosul could be orders of magnitude harder than either Manbij or Raqqa. There had been speculation that offensives to retake Raqqa and Mosul might happen simultaneously. Asked about that, Votel repeatedly stressed the importance of what he called “simultaneous application of pressure.”
“I think it’s extraordinarily important and we are certainly attempting to do that,” Votel said. “I think what we’ve seen is when we apply pressure on the Islamic State forces, they do squirt out, they try to go to other locations, they move leaders, they move the bulk of their forces, they try to relocate some of their operations.”
He said the U.S. and its coalition partners could respond to that in various ways, including directing airstrikes at ISIS fighters seeking to move from Mosul to Raqqa.
“I think it’s extraordinarily important to apply pressure in many areas, Iraq and Syria,” he added.