Thanksgiving dinner won't eat up your wallet this year

Here’s a helping of good news that’s bound to take the sting out of the costly holiday season: Americans will spend less this year on their Thanksgiving feasts, owing in part to falling turkey prices.

The average cost of a Thanksgiving meal for 10 is just under $50 this year, down slightly from last year, when the price tag was $50.11, according to the American Farm Bureau’s yearly informal price survey. The findings are based on data collected by about 150 volunteers, who searched for the “the best possible prices” (without taking advantage of coupons or special offers) on a 16-pound turkey, side-dish ingredients and other designated items at grocery stores in 40 states.

• For more tips on budgeting and spending for the festive season, see our annual Holiday Financial Guide
  

Adjusting for inflation, the average cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 has fallen to its lowest level since 2010, according to the trade organization.

Americans eat an estimated 46 million turkeys during Thanksgiving, and this year buying a bird will gobble up less of your budget. Turkey prices are generally lower than they were last year because of relatively high production levels.

Prices for pumpkin pie mix, milk and vegetable trays have also dropped, although items like brown-and-serve rolls, pie shells, whipping cream and fresh sweet potatoes will cost a bit more, according to the American Farm Bureau survey.

Last year, wholesale turkey prices were relatively high -- although supermarkets generally didn’t pass on the added costs to consumers -- because of the bird flu outbreak that swept Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota and Wisconsin in the spring. Minnesota is the country’s leading turkey producer. The state’s StarTribune reports that farmers there raise about 18 percent of all the birds produced and sold in the U.S.

As of last Friday, the advertised price for fresh hens at major supermarkets, based on a weighted average, was $1.70 per pound -- which represented a decline of more than 2 percent from a year earlier, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The advertised price of frozen hens actually increased by about 4 percentage points on average to 99 cents per pound during the same period. But advertised prices for fresh and frozen bone-in whole breasts fell by nearly 9 percentage points and 4 percentage points, respectively, to $2.93 and $1.70 per pound.

Wholesale turkey prices can fluctuate dramatically, but consumers generally don’t see wild swings in the cost of Thanksgiving birds because big supermarket chains largely absorb price increases to keep holiday shoppers coming through their doors. Once in the stores, they tend to load up on higher-margin items, such as stuffing, pies and other trimmings.

“Turkeys are loss leaders at Thanksgiving time. They’re priced well under their wholesale cost,” explained Thomas Elam, president of FarmEcon, an agricultural consulting firm whose clients include turkey producers.

“There are plenty of turkeys available this year,” said Elam. “If you see a price that isn’t reasonable, you need to shop around, particularly if you live in a bigger city where you have several supermarkets from which to choose.”