Pure Horserace: Electoral College Ending?

Maryland is set to become the first state to adopt legislation that, if enough states follow its lead, would effectively make the popular vote supreme in presidential elections and render the Electoral College irrelevant.

The Washington Post reported today that Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley is prepared to sign a bill passed by the legislature that would assign the state's presidential electors based on who won the nationwide popular vote, even if that result contradicts the wishes of Maryland voters.

The bill has a one big catch though: It only goes into effect if similar legislation is adopted by other states that, combined, possess 270 electoral votes, which is required to win a presidential election.

According to National Popular Vote, which is pushing similar legislation in 50 states, the plan has been approved by at least one house of the state legislature in Colorado, Hawaii and Arkansas — where Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe has said he'll sign such legislation if passed by the state Senate.

In other states, however, legislation is languishing. Opponents say such a plan would ensure that presidential candidates only visit a handful of urban areas. And states that now bear the "battleground" label may be reluctant to give up clout for the sake of now-ignored Texas Democrats and California Republicans.

However, there is one member of the California GOP who has already signaled disapproval for the proposal: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Earlier this year, he vetoed legislation that would have made California and its 55 electoral votes subject to the plan.

What Happens When The Trees Go Bare? The 2008 presidential candidates are launching last-minute blitzes to haul in campaign cash before the first-quarter fundraising deadline Saturday. The final tallies will be ones politicos (like us) will obsess over the way overzealous teens do about "American Idol."

While we're sure to see some eye-popping amounts, CBSNews.com's Jennifer Hoar reminds us that the law of diminishing returns may come into play for these money-hungry campaign machines. Federal law limits individual contributions to $2,300 for the nominating process, and political action committees are limited to $5,000 for candidates accepting PAC money. Hillary Clinton reportedly raised nearly $3 million on one night alone at a Hollywood fund-raiser last weekend — but there are only so many of those events to be had.

"I'd be surprised if she couldn't tap the trees in L.A. But remember, this is the low-hanging fruit, for everybody…the money comes harder now," communications/PR expert Mike Collins tells Hoar.

A strategist from the Democratic side also put the prodigious fundraising into context. "Can candidates maintain the same level of fundraising in the second quarter after all the low-hanging fruit is picked?" says Cutter Media Group's Stephanie Cutter.

So while you can expect a few candidates to make a first-quarter splash, the challenge will soon be to demonstrate an ability to maintain the pace — something that will be harder now that so much of the easy money has been gobbled up.

Changing The Subject: CBS News' Brian Goldsmith reminds us: One of the most important lessons of political combat is the necessity of changing the subject, shifting the campaign debate away from your weaknesses and toward your strengths. The political scientists call it agenda-setting, and it's an exercise that Rudy Giuliani is involved in right now.

Giuliani knows that as a pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control, thrice-married estranged father, he isn't exactly a favorite son as far as social conservatives as concerned.

But, luckily for Rudy, evangelicals and abortion opponents are not the only important constituency in the GOP. In fact, there's a pretty large semi-libertarian business segment piece within the party — and it may be one of the most underestimated.

So Giuliani is agenda-setting — focusing on his 9/11 national security credentials, and more recently on his fiscal conservatism. His first ads on the radio, featured the phrase "supply side policies" — code to GOP leaders that Rudy's a conservative on the economy.

And just yesterday he landed the endorsement of Steve Forbes, known to most of America as the preppy billionaire magazine heir who dropped tens of millions on two runs for president — but known to fiscal hawks as the heroic champion of a flat tax (an idea Giuliani disparaged as New York mayor).

Next week, Rudy and surrogates will fan across America talking about — not abortion, not gay marriage, but his new favorite subject: the flat tax.

And, in doing so, Giuliani is picking a fight he just might win.

Editor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click

By Vaughn Ververs