New Hampshire's Political Pulse

Political Players is a weekly conversation with the leaders, consultants, and activists who are shaping American politics. In advance of this Sunday's Democratic presidential debate, CBSNews.com talked with Dick Bennett, the president of the nonpartisan American Research Group, to discuss Fred Thompson's entry into the race, Hillary Clinton's organization, Rudy Giuliani's campaign style, and how pollsters figure out who will vote.

CBSNews.com: Your latest American Research Group poll in New Hampshire shows Hillary Clinton maintaining an almost two-to-one lead over her nearest competitor, John Edwards —- a far broader lead than in many other polls. First, what does Hilary seem to be doing right? And second, what do you think the other polls are missing?

Dick Bennett: Well first off, she's Hillary Clinton. And she's using the Clinton organization effectively in New Hampshire. And I think that's the most important thing. I can't speak for the other polls, but what we find basically is her support is fairly consistent.

She's strong among Democrats, the core group of supporters. But her real strength is among women and she gets 43 percent of women in New Hampshire. And more women vote in the Democratic primary than men. Forty-three percent of women say they vote for Clinton, compared to 23 percent of men. And if she's able to attract and hold women, it's a great constituency for her.

CBSNews.com: How do you measure for likely voters in your polls?

Dick Bennett: We screen with a ten point scale. So one means that someone would definitely not vote in the Democratic primary. And ten means they would definitely vote. And we have two other questions about their intent to vote. And someone who gives a seven or greater will be included.

CBSNews.com: How do you control for people saying to a pollster on the phone that they'll vote and then not voting?

Dick Bennett: You can't control for that. But we know that people who are likely voters don't need to vote to represent the pool of actual voters. So if someone goes through our screen and they become a likely voter, whether or not they vote will make no difference, because they will actually represent the pool of actual voters on election day.

CBSNews.com: Only 14 percent are undecided in your New Hampshire poll on the Democratic side. Is that an unusually small number and does that mean that the task for Obama and Edwards and others to climb past Hillary is that much harder?

Dick Bennett: Well it's not that unusual. The biggest factor, since 2000, is the dissatisfaction towards George W. Bush among Democrats.
But the whole point of a campaign is that orders move in and out of candidates. Usually the candidates move up and down. And depending on what they do, depending on received performance, or what's happening in the state, what happens in Iowa, that kind of thing.

CBSNews.com:: You mentioned Iowa as a factor in determining how well you do in New Hampshire. How true is the perception of an Iowa bounce --that the winner in Iowa does better in New Hampshire?

Dick Bennett: I don't know. It may not help in terms of the eventual vote in New Hampshire. But it helps in terms of having that candidate be evaluated by voters in New Hampshire. So because the primary process is a sequential process, if someone does well unexpectedly in Iowa, voters in New Hampshire will look at that candidate. And they make a judgment of their own based on that. But, at least, they get the look.

But part of what Iowa does -- and the whole process does -- is it whittles out. So there will be some candidates who perform poorly in Iowa who will lose support in New Hampshire.

CBSNews.com: Back to Hillary, who we were discussing earlier. What does it mean in terms of her organization from a New Hampshire perspective that Billy Shaheen, former Governor Shaheen's husband, is chairing her campaign in the state?

Dick Bennett: Well it means that the Clinton organization is alive and well -- and that, among Democratic activists, they have a formidable organization. And it's extensive. And, you know, Obama has sort of the Gephardt organization.

And we'll see. But Hillary Clinton's people are very effective. They know what to do because they've done it before.

CBSNews.com: How well would Al Gore, who won the New Hampshire primary in 2000, perform if he were to enter the race? Is there an opening for him on the Democratic side?

Dick Bennett: Well I think there's an opening. I don't know how well he would do. And if Hillary Clinton stumbled or John Edwards, I guess. But I don't see that as an option because I think that the Clinton vote is pretty satisfied with Clinton. And the Obama voters are satisfied with him. And the Edwards voters are satisfied.

And that locks up a lot of the vote that's out there. And the other thing about New Hampshire, and you see it on the Republican side, is that the voters here want someone to commit to the race. You know, earlier in the year when Rudy Giuliani spoke to the Republican convention here and didn't announce. Are you in or not? And I don't think there are very many activists sitting on the sidelines at the moment, waiting for Al Gore.

CBSNews.com: On the Republican side your latest poll shows a more tightly packed race with McCain, the winner of the 2000 New Hampshire primary, in the lead with 30 percent, followed by Romney with 23 percent, and Giuliani with 21 percent. And everyone else is far behind. Does it mean, in effect, that 70 percent are rejecting McCain, who is a very well known quantity in New Hampshire?

Dick Bennett: I don't think they're rejecting him. I think they have a preference for some of the other Republicans in the race. I mean, you could say that 99 percent are rejecting Tommy Thompson.

But again, with McCain, of the Republicans, McCain is the only one who's done the truly hard work. And he kept his organization alive for eight years. And he's adding to that with former Bush people. And I think the McCain strategy is based on the belief that McCain lost because he didn't have the organization that George W. Bush had. And this time, he's going to have it.

CBSNews.com: You've done a lot of work on the effectiveness of TV advertising. Mitt Romney is the only GOP candidate to have advertised on New Hampshire TV thus far. How impactful has that been in terms of how well he's doing?

Dick Bennett: The one spot has been very effective, when he talks about vetoing spending bills and that he likes to veto. Republicans responded very favorably to that. That helped him and, at the moment, he's very competitive in the state. And if you look at just Republicans in the state, he's essentially tied with McCain and Giuliani. He's doing very well. And he wasn't doing that well at all prior to the advertising.

CBSNews.com: You're referencing the fact that independents are allowed to vote in either primary.

Dick Bennett:: Right. And John McCain's strength in 2000 was among the independent voters in New Hampshire who came and declared to vote in the Republican primary, much to Bill Bradley's dismay.

And McCain is getting 40 percent of the undeclared voters who say that they will vote in the Republican primary. McCain's problem is, will they actually come through? Because if they don't, the race is very close among Republicans.

CBSNews.com: Fred Thompson, who appears to be entering the race soon, seems to be having very little impact in New Hampshire. According to your poll, he's at three percent. Do Republicans in New Hampshire seem more satisfied with their field than Republicans nationally?

Dick Bennett: I think they do because the campaign is on here. I've been doing this for thirty years, and I've never seen such intensity so early. And as I said before, voters want candidates to get in the race, to be a part of the campaign. I think it was in March when we first put Fred Thompson's name on in the poll. And he was at ten percent. And if he gets in the race, he could probably go back to that and then have to build.

But I think he made a mistake by waiting, by being coy because what it allows the other campaigns to do is find and attract the voters. And Romney was running at nine percent in December. And now, he is right in the middle of it. And you know, I don't think he's going to want to give up his supporters just like Giuliani or McCain will want to give up their supporters.

CBSNews.com: Why is Giuliani, who is leading nationally, not leading in New Hampshire?

Dick Bennett: He hasn't been here much. I think organizationally, he's behind. He's behind McCain. He's behind Romney. And again, I think that his style of campaigning doesn't fit well with what is in New Hampshire.

CBSNews.com: What do you mean by his style?

Dick Bennett: He's a sender, not a receiver. And meeting voters in New Hampshire, the candidates have to learn how to be receivers. They have to hear and understand what the voters are saying to them. And John McCain is a master of it. Romney's getting better at it. But, you know, Rudy Giuliani comes and says what he wants to say and that's it. And if you don't agree with him, tough luck.

The voters here, well first off, they haven't seen much of him. But secondly, they don't respond well to that kind of a campaign. And that's what the Giuliani campaign is talking about. You know, less of an emphasis on Iowa, less of an emphasis on New Hampshire, and go wait until February, or whenever it may be and move in on the bigger states where that kind of style has less of an impact.

CBSNews.com: My last question is a little bit more impressionistic, which is that many Americans have this image of New Hampshire residents as kind of flinty libertarian New Englanders who take the process seriously but don't necessarily represent the make up of most Americans. Why do you think New Hampshire should be as prominent in the campaign as it is?

Dick Bennett:: Well first off, people of New Hampshire are not that different than other people in the country. And we know that because we talk to people all over the country. What's different about New Hampshire is institutional, and it's constitutional. The New Hampshire Constitution is unique in that it forces government to be very close to the people.

And that means that the relationship that New Hampshire voters have with their elected officials is a little bit different than in other states. We have 400 state representatives. We still have a town meeting form of government. And so, it's not unusual for voters in New Hampshire to know and to question the actions of their elected officials.

And I think the beauty of the New Hampshire primary is the voters get to ask anything that's on their minds of the candidates running for president -- in the way they would their elected officials. And we know that when somebody moves to New Hampshire from Massachusetts, it doesn't take them long to understand and enjoy the system of government. And they get converted to questioning their elected officials. And I think that's the beauty of New Hampshire.

By Brian Goldsmith