Can Republicans make terrorism an effective campaign issue?
There's no question Americans are troubled by the threat of extremism around the globe.
As many as 51 percent of Americans said in a CBS News/New York Times poll released last week that they think a terrorist attack in the U.S. is very likely or somewhat likely to happen in the next few months. Most are dissatisfied with President Obama's handling of the threat of terrorism.
It's unclear at this point whether Republicans can seize on the issue of national security to make headway ahead of the midterms -- the president's stepped up military action in recent days may undercut attempts to do so. Still, the GOP is testing out the strategy in some races.
"We all know the growing threat we face today," a male narrator says in an ad released Tuesday by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). The narration plays over ominous news coverage of ISIS. "What we don't know is why Congressman Rick Nolan voted to release terrorists held at Guantanamo Bay and then voted against funding for our troops fighting the war on terror."
The ad is referencing two June votes -- one that would have opened up funding for the construction of new facilities in the U.S. to detain Guantanamo Bay prisoners, and one that would have put further restrictions on the president's authority to use military force.
The NRCC last week released similar ads in Iowa and New York.
"Voters are extremely unhappy about the direction President Obama is taking the country," NRCC spokesman Andrea Bozek told CBS News. "They disapprove of the way he has handled the economy, health care and now they don't trust him to keep us safe. These ads should put Democrats candidates on notice - voters will hold them accountable for their policies that would put families in danger and our safety at risk."
Some individual candidates, like New Hampshire's Republican Senate nominee Scott Brown, are running similar ads.
Washington State University professor Travis Ridout, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, told CBS News that there's room for Republicans to talk about terrorism and foreign affairs, given that the economy and Obamacare are now less of a concern than they have been in past elections.
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"If there aren't any other big issues out there, it seems like there can be a vacuum to fill, and campaigns have more ability to set the agenda," he said.
In the CBS News/New York Times poll, 17 percent of Americans said terrorism would be the most important issue to them in the midterms, putting it second only to the economy.
Moreover, as Ridout pointed out, the party out of power "often tries to nationalize a midterm election to make it a referendum on the president -- this is your chance to punish the president if you don't like what he's doing."
And as the CBS News/New York Times poll showed, just 41 percent of Americans approve of Mr. Obama's handling of the threat of terrorism, a drop of 12 points since March.
Foreign policy typically takes a backseat to other issues during campaigns -- in 2012, international issues only accounted for 7 percent of issue ads in congressional races, Ridout said.
This year appears to be no different, even with the threat of ISIS looming. In the past week, only one or two new ads per day have hit on national security in the past week, media tracker Kantar Media/CMAG told CBS News. That's out of the dozens to hundreds of new political ads that run every day.
While Republicans are tackling the issue in a handful of ads, Republican pollster Neil Newhouse told CBS News that the GOP has to be "very careful trying to score political points on this."
Newhouse helped conduct focus groups earlier this month in Arkansas and Iowa, showing that "Walmart moms" (shorthand, of course, for moms with children under 18 who shop at Walmart) are keenly aware of ISIS and concerned about the threat the group poses.
However, Newhouse pointed out that the focus groups were conducted ahead of Mr. Obama's stepped up airstrikes against ISIS, which polling shows the public supports.
"I'm not sold there's an opportunity to make political hay of this," he said. "In times of crisis like this, voters generally try to rally around the president."
Furthermore, with Election Day just about six weeks away, Newhouse suggested Republicans may be better off using their remaining time on the campaign trail discussing other issues.
"You've got to weigh what you're going to get out of it," he said. "There's no question voters are concerned about what they're hearing out of the Middle East... I'm not sure voters think about this or can be convinced to think about this in starkly partisan terms."
