Analysis: Different Showdown, Same Story
This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.
In a presidential campaign marked mostly by sharp turns, surprising development and shattered predictions, the Democratic contest has now become a story of remarkable consistency. Tonight saw more of the same - more victories by Barack Obama, more erosion of support from the types of voters who once formed Hillary Clinton's base and more separation between the two.
It's all making it more and more likely Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination.
Obama continues to eat into Clinton's once solid base of support, splitting the vote among women, low and middle income voters and those without college degrees, while maintaining his strong edge among more affluent, educated and younger voters. Obama has also begun winning large numbers of men, a trend that continued in Wisconsin. And importantly, he won among Democrats as well as independents.
Another constant in the election is the concern voters are expressing about the state of the economy. Exit polls everywhere this year have shown it clearly to be the number one issue on the minds of voters. Forty three percent of voters in Wisconsin's Democratic primary cited the economy as their number one issue, 55 percent of them voted for Obama. He won 57 percent of those who said the war in Iraq was most important to them and even 51 percent concerned primarily about health care.
As in other contests, change trumped experience in Wisconsin. Both candidates carried those respective categories by wide margins but by two to one, Democratic primary voters said they were looking for change over experience.
For Clinton the experience argument has cut both ways. While she edged Obama on the question of who is most qualified to be Commander In Chief -- 50 percent to 48 percent -- her claims to the experience mantle rests partly on her years as First Lady in her husband's administration -- one responsible for some policies unpopular among Democrats, like NAFTA. In exit polls, 70 percent said trade with other nations take more jobs from the U.S. than they create.
Trade is among those issues likely to be a chief topic in Ohio, one of two states Clinton has tapped as must-wins for her campaign on March 4th, the next major primary date.
More of the same has not been a winning formula for Clinton of late but her campaign has shown little willingness to change the message. In a speech made shortly after her loss in Wisconsin was projected by CBS News and other news organizations, Clinton emphasized economic issues within the framework of "experience."
"Both Senator Obama and I would make history," she will say according to the released excerpts. "But only one of us is ready on day one to be commander in chief, ready to manage our economy, and ready to defeat the Republicans. Only one of us has spent 35 years being a doer, a fighter and a champion for those who need a voice. That is what I would bring to the White House. That is the choice in this election."
Clinton released an ad in Ohio this week appealing directly to "overlooked" and "night shift" workers. "One candidate has put forth an American family agenda to make things easier for everyone who works so hard," the ad says. "Universal healthcare. Increased daycare. And help with elder health care. She understands. She's worked the night shift, too."
But her argument of being "ready on day one" did not win over Democratic voters in Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, Maryland or the other 20-plus states her opponent has piled into his win column. Since a split of sorts on Super Tuesday, Obama has rolled through state after state, peeling away Clinton's support. And the Democratic race is getting more predictable all the time.