Politics

Starting Gate: The Hits Keep Coming

By Vaughn Ververs

July 30, 2008 / 9:50 AM EDT / CBS News

The string of scandals that have hit the Republican Party's congressional wing for the past two years grew yesterday with the indictment of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens for failing to report gifts given to him by corporate executives of an oil company with deep ties in his state. The senator allegedly decided not to list some of the gifts, which supposedly included some tools, a grill and, oh yes, a new level on his house.

Veco, a now non-existent company, has been the central player in a bribery scandal that has rocked Alaska's Republican political establishment and now threatens to extend its damage nationally. It seemed unthinkable even a few months ago that Democrats would be able to win enough seats to achieve a 60 vote (thus filibuster-proof) majority in the U.S. Senate. Not anymore.

The current Senate makeup holds 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans and two independents who caucus with the Democratic Party to give them control of the majority. There are 35 seats up this November, 23 held by Republicans and just 12 held by Democrats – almost all of them considered safe. Democrats need to win a net of nine seats to get to that magic number 60 (ten to neutralize the possibility of Independent Joe Lieberman deciding to caucus with the GOP, at least on some issues).

It's a large amount of seats to take but events seem to be breaking all their way. Alaska has been one of the most reliably GOP states at the federal level for decades. While Democratic governors have proven popular, Republicans have had a stranglehold on the two senate seats and the one at-large house seat for decades. The indictment of Stevens, already facing a very tough re-election, could be the perfect storm Democrats have waited for in the state.

Other events have combined to give Democrats hope of big gains. Retirements in the key swing states of Colorado, Virginia and New Mexico have left those seats among the most vulnerable targets. Difficult fights await GOP incumbents in blue states like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon and Maine. Add Alaska and the unpredictability of a special election in Mississippi and the numbers begin to add up.

What has to make Republicans all the more nervous is the prospect of potential coattails from the top of the ticket, which could endanger safer seats in a state like North Carolina. Yes, Democrats would have to run the table but with the possible exception of Louisiana, they have the advantage of being on the offense rather than defending their own. And in any "wave" election, there are some unexpected results (see the GOP Tsunami of 1994).

Stevens, who has proclaimed his innocence, couldn't remove himself from the primary ballot next month even if he wanted to and he retains a reservoir of goodwill for the largess he has delivered the state in his 40 years in office. But even in Alaska, the GOP brand is looking shaky and that gives Democrats high hopes of winning even more than the White House this November.

Around The Track

Look for a round of "hubris watch" stories coming down the pike. The Washington Post reported that during a closed-door meeting with House Democrats, Barack Obama supposedly told the legislators about the reason some 200,000 Germans showed up for his Berlin speech last week: "I have become a symbol of the possibility of America returning to our best traditions."

The New York Times hasn't been a real friend of John McCain's this year. His primary opponents used the paper's primary endorsement of McCain to portray him as a favorite of the liberal establishment and today, the paper's editorial page pounds him for his increased criticism of Obama. "The candidate who started out talking about high-minded, civil debate has wholeheartedly adopted Mr. Rove's low-minded and uncivil playbook," the editorial states.

The mole removed from McCain's face this week is not cancerous, according to a statement from the campaign: "Senator McCain visited the Mayo Clinic in Scottsdale, Arizona, yesterday for a routine check of his dermatological health. The biopsy that was performed did not show any evidence of skin cancer. No further treatment is necessary."

Does Obama have a problem with women voters? One Chicago Sun-Times columnist thinks he does. And columnist Carol Marin warns, "It seems pretty clear that if Obama is not going to pick Clinton as his running mate, he'd better not pick a woman at all."