Starting Gate: Great Expectations
"Let's tamp down expectations here." That's what Barack Obama told reporters questioning him about the throngs of people expected to greet the Democratic candidate at his speech in Germany today. It may be a little too late for that.
The Obama campaign has promoted a confusing line of perception on the candidate's trip overseas this week, protesting against any suggestions that it has a political tint to it while at the same time staging some of the most picture-perfect campaign events of the entire cycle. If a million people show up to see the candidate in Berlin today, it will produce images certain to be replayed in campaign ads (or at least convention videos).
The week has clearly been a success for Obama back home, where John McCain has struggled to stay in the news or on message. Those expectations Obama may be trying to tamp down are only growing on the campaign trail as a result. He may flinch at the description, but Obama has to be considered the front-runner in the presidential race right now. And his campaign has done everything they can to push that (see the very public decision to deliver his acceptance speech at Invesco field in front of some 70,000 people).
It's not the worst position to be in but is the bar too high for even Obama to clear when it comes to the expectations? There remain plenty of obstacles and potential pitfalls in his way. None may be bigger or more important than his vice presidential selection. If the golden rule of that process is to do no harm, Obama may have to do more than that. This will be his first presidential-level decision and any hint of a miss will be magnified. Don't underestimate the importance of first impressions when it comes to this.
Then there are the issues. Obama may benefit greatly from being the "outsider" but that doesn't mean he can skate through the campaign without taking some positions that might cost him support. Underplayed but not unnoticed is Obama's assertions overseas that the surge in Iraq is not what has helped stem violence in that country. Plenty of tricky issues remain – the economy, energy, health care, etc.
And there are the fall debates. Obama's decision not to accept McCain's challenge to appear at joint town hall meetings aren't going to hurt him but doing at least a couple of them couldn't have hurt. For all the oratorical skills on display when he speaks to huge arenas, those one-on-one debates are a different animal. Sure, he did over 20 of them throughout the Democratic primary and he got better at them as time went on. But it's been awhile. McCain isn't always his best in those situations either but the spotlight will almost certainly be on Obama when the debates begin.
Tamping down expectations for Obama is going to be easier said than done. And as they grow, the potential downsides get larger as well. The bigger they are, the harder they fall – that's something most Americans instinctively understand. How big will the expectations for Obama get?
Around The Track