Horserace
June 25, 2008 8:45 AM

Starting Gate: Just How Confident Should Democrats Be?

Does Barack Obama already have the presidency locked up? For Democrats, it might be tempting to think so.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll out yesterday shows Obama with a 12 point edge – an advantage that stretches to 15 points when Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are included.

The poll also suggests that more voters are identifying as Democrats than Republicans, and that John McCain is suffering from a “passion gap” – while just 58 percent of conservatives said they would vote for McCain, 79 percent of liberals vowed to vote for Obama.

In addition, almost every metric in the race favors the Democratic candidate – among them the candidate’s fundraising ability, trends in party identification, and disenchantment with the current (Republican) president. McCain seems to realize that he faces an uphill battle: At a fundraiser yesterday, the presumptive GOP nominee said, “We are behind, we are the underdog. That’s what I like to be.”

And while that may be a stretch, Democrats would be wise to temper their enthusiasm. For a cautionary tale, they need look no further than 1988: In May of that year, Michael Dukakis had a 10 point lead over George Bush in a New York Times/CBS News Poll. A Gallup poll taken two months later, just after the Democratic convention, showed Dukakis with a 17 point lead. Note this passage in the 1988 Times story on the May poll, concerning the silver lining for Republicans: “Many voters, for example, worried that Mr. Dukakis may lack the [experience] to be President.” Sound familiar?

Just as Republicans are looking to do with Obama, Dukakis was defined by his opponent over the course of the election as an elitist who was unprepared to deal effectively with national security issues. The Massachusetts governor’s missteps on the trail – chief among them the disastrous M1 Abrams tank photo-op – only exacerbated that perception. (Obama, of course, has already shown a propensity for missteps of his own, among them the “bitter/cling” comments and his connection to former pastor Jeremiah Wright.)

Obama is no Dukakis: The Illinois senator is a far more charismatic campaigner, and will not take the sort of time off from running for president that Dukakis disastrously did in 1988. And as Power Line points out, June polls have become far more predictive of final results since Dukakis’ failed run. But even now, McCain’s chances may be better than these early national polls suggest: CBS News chief political consultant Marc Ambinder examined the general election map Friday and found that between base states and those leaning towards McCain, the Arizona senator could claim 220 electoral votes. Obama could claim 212.

McCain’s biggest problem may simply be that he needs Obama’s help. If the presumptive Democratic nominee doesn’t make serious mistakes in the coming months, it may be extremely difficult for his rival to close the gap – even if McCain’s campaign comes up with the 2008 equivalent of a Willie Horton ad. Still, anyone who thinks the election is already over would be wise to study their political history – and remember we have no idea what surprises could come between now and Election Day.

Around The Track:

  • In an ad out yesterday, Oregon Republican senator Gordon Smith crossed party lines to align himself with Obama. “Who says Gordon Smith led the fight for better gas mileage and a cleaner environment? Barack Obama,” an announcer says in the spot, which you can see here. ”He joined with Gordon and broke through a 20-year deadlock to pass new laws that increase gas mileage for automobiles.” Responding to the ad, campaign spokesman Bill Burton said in a statement that while Obama “has a long record of bipartisan accomplishment,” the candidate supports Smith’s rival, Democrat Jeff Merkley, in the Oregon Senate race.

  • Obama is “giving the green light to his financial contributors to help pay off Senator Hillary Clinton’s campaign debt,” CBS News’ Maria Gavrilovic reports. The presumptive Democratic nominee gave the go-ahead on a conference call with his National Finance Committee last night. Obama’s finance team is expected to help Clinton pay off roughly $10 million in debt, though not the $12.5 million she lent her own campaign.

  • McCain announced more foreign travel yesterday, this time a planned trip to Columbia which is scheduled to take place before July 4th. “I want to assure [Colombian President Alvaro Uribe] that I believe in free trade between our two countries, that I believe that our two nations can work together and fight back the scourge of drugs that has so much afflicted their country and ours,” McCain said. Obama opposes a proposed free-trade deal with Columbia. Senators Lindsey Graham and Joe Lieberman will accompany McCain on the trip.

  • Michelle Obama will give the keynote address at the Gay and Lesbian Leadership Council Gala in New York City tomorrow night. She will be joined at the Democratic National Committee fundraiser by DNC Chair Howard Dean and New York First Lady Michelle Paterson.
  • Tags:
    barack obama ,
    michael dukakis ,
    john mccain ,
    1988 ,
    poll
    Topics:
    Starting Gate
    Add a Comment See all 94 Comments
    by barocalto June 25, 2008 9:42 AM PDT
    I wouldn''t start paying attention to polls until after Labor Day, by that time more people will know the truth about Obama, that he is just another politician nothing more and that Obama doesn''t real like white people. He didn''t go to Rev Wright''s lets hate whitey church for 20 plus years and have his daughters become members for nothing.
    Reply to this comment
    by dnsallday June 25, 2008 10:10 AM PDT
    a misstep is what the media decides is a misstep. The next 3 months will be spent with the corporate media trying to knock Obama off balance.
    when Mccain says something cockeyed that makes no sense, the pundits say, "that''s understandable" that he would make a mistake like that.
    When Obama makes a mistake , it is because he is "inexperienced".
    When Obama''s flamboyant preacher, he is portrayed in a never ending media loop as some scary black dude".

    When McCain seeks out the endorsement of extremist preachers, it is overlooked because they are white!
    Reply to this comment
    by haoli25 June 25, 2008 10:13 AM PDT
    I''m still having trouble getting used to the sound of President B.O.
    Reply to this comment
    by broadwayphi June 25, 2008 10:16 AM PDT
    Coming from Oregon, I find it interesting that the GOP is now seeking to ties ITS candidates with Barack Obama.

    Guess trying to tie Democratic candidates with Obama didn''t work so well?

    Take note, Senator McCaon.

    My friend.
    Reply to this comment
    by barocalto June 25, 2008 10:17 AM PDT
    Posted by raflin1
    younger, more intelligent
    .................

    If Obama is smarter then John McCain how come he won''t do one on one town hall debates with him. And this is after he said he would debate McCain anywhere anytime now it no way no how... So what''s he afraid of cluck, cluck, chicken, chicken???
    Reply to this comment
    by broadwayphi June 25, 2008 10:17 AM PDT
    I mean, Senator McNeocon...
    Reply to this comment
    by broadwayphi June 25, 2008 10:19 AM PDT
    Posted by Barocalto at 10:17 AM

    My sense is that he doesn''t want to give SEnator McCain the free air time.

    Let McCain go out and earn his own cash.

    It''s the American way.
    Reply to this comment
    by broadwayphi June 25, 2008 10:23 AM PDT
    I find it surprising, Barocalto, that you decry Obama''s (now severed) ties with a church and call him a "Whitey hater" when you give McCain a pass for smooching wacko bigots like Hagee & Co.

    You know..."The Cathloic Church is the great wh--re?"

    "Please, Hagee -- endorse me!"

    What a laugh.
    Reply to this comment
    by mattcat25 June 25, 2008 10:23 AM PDT
    In light of all the detrimental results from the Conservative Agenda implemented by Bush/Cheney and the Rubber Stamp Congress, Americans should be confident that this is still a democracy. The Republicans aren%u2019t offing any concessions to their program. John McCain has adopted the Bush Plan to continue to divert wealth to the wealthy while simultaneously forcing the American Middle Class into poverty. War Mongering and Privatization of our Military is the track the Conservatives are on to cement their power and profits. The only thing the Republicans are resorting to in this election is to once again attack the Democratic Presidential Candidate with Smear Tactics and Swift Boat fabrication.

    Perpetual War mismanaged, and Fear Mongering.
    Unfair taxation of the Middle Class.
    High prices for Gasoline, Electricity, and Everything Else!
    High Medical Costs and Prescription Drugs.
    Pollution.
    Invasion of Privacy, and disregard for our Constitution.
    Politicization of the Justice Department.
    Corruption, Corruption, Corruption.
    Religious Hypocrisy and abuse of tax laws.
    Degradation of our Infrastructure.
    Continued export of American Jobs to overseas Slave Labor.
    Decline in US stature and respect of the World Community.

    Vote Republican to continue to STAY THE COURSE!
    Reply to this comment
    by broadwayphi June 25, 2008 10:24 AM PDT
    But maybe that''s ok with you, Barocalto.

    Maybe that''s just fine.
    Reply to this comment
    by barocalto June 25, 2008 10:31 AM PDT
    ive McCain a pass for smooching wacko bigots like Hagee & Co.
    Posted by broadwayphi
    .............

    McCain was never a member of Hagee church all he got from Hagee was an endorsement. Obama went 20 plus years to Trinity and had his daughters where baptized there.
    Reply to this comment
    by barocalto June 25, 2008 10:36 AM PDT
    The Cathloic Church is the great wh--re?"

    "Please, Hagee -- endorse me!
    By the way Hagee is not Catholic I believe he is baptist and Hagee doesn''t like gay people he doesn''t bash black people the way Obama and Trinity bashes white people.

    By the way I don''t like Hagee either...
    Reply to this comment
    by dnsallday June 25, 2008 10:39 AM PDT
    If Obama is smarter then John McCain how come he won''''t do one on one town hall debates with him. And this is after he said he would debate McCain anywhere anytime now it no way no how... So what''''s he afraid of cluck, cluck, chicken, chicken???

    Posted by Barocalto
    ********************************
    Obama is a leader and will create his own terms.
    I have listened to a few of McCains town hall events. Although the media seems to think he does better at these, rather than show his incapacity to read a teleprompter, they are full of gaffes and confused efforts to explain his own flip flopping.

    Maybe Obama wants to wait until McCain finishes debating with himself over the issues.
    Reply to this comment
    by dnsallday June 25, 2008 10:45 AM PDT
    Yes, Obama was a member of the Trinity Unity church. How many times in the 20 years that he was a member did he actually attend that church?

    Interesting how people have such a problem associating with a flamboyant preacher, but don''t seem to have any problem with Republicans close relationships with currupt liars and theives.
    Reply to this comment
    by ioweign June 25, 2008 10:51 AM PDT
    McCain was never a member of Hagee church all he got from Hagee was an endorsement. Obama went 20 plus years to Trinity and had his daughters where baptized there.

    Posted by Barocalto at 10:31 AM : Jun 25, 2008


    McCain "pursued" that endorsement for over a year. Now getting an endorsement from wacko Hagee shows all that McCain "experience"...
    Reply to this comment
    by briannorwood June 25, 2008 10:52 AM PDT
    McCain%u2019s biggest problem may simply be that he needs Obama%u2019s help?

    NO, NO, NO.

    McCain''s problem is that he is just too, too old for this job. That is why his campaign is so anemic.

    I expect Obama''s lead in the polls to continue upward throughout the summer months. Probably one or two points per week.

    Expect a November blowout!
    Reply to this comment
    by ijagpoj June 25, 2008 10:53 AM PDT


    It is typical for rivals to help the other retire debt after primary process because it makes for party unity towards general election.

    At the same time, it is reported that if only 20% of Hillary''s 18 million voters sit out or vote McCain, Obama loses in November. That is only about 4 million voters.

    Sources say, Al Gore may try to become the Dem nominee when Obama may be driven out by his own scandals unleased by media. Apparently Obama''s only role is to rid Hillary, then self destruct so Gore will waltz in and claim the nomination in August.

    What do you think?
    Reply to this comment
    by ijagpoj June 25, 2008 10:53 AM PDT


    It is typical for rivals to help the other retire debt after primary process because it makes for party unity towards general election.

    At the same time, it is reported that if only 20% of Hillary''s 18 million voters sit out or vote McCain, Obama loses in November. That is only about 4 million voters.

    Sources say, Al Gore may try to become the Dem nominee when Obama may be driven out by his own scandals unleased by media. Apparently Obama''s only role is to rid Hillary, then self destruct so Gore will waltz in and claim the nomination in August.

    What do you think?
    Reply to this comment
    by irliberal June 25, 2008 10:57 AM PDT
    Sources say, Al Gore may try to become the Dem nominee when Obama may be driven out by his own scandals unleased by media. Apparently Obama''''s only role is to rid Hillary, then self destruct so Gore will waltz in and claim the nomination in August.

    What do you think?



    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Posted by ijagpoj at 10:53 AM

    I think you''ve been sniffing too much glue.
    Reply to this comment
    by jack3213 June 25, 2008 11:05 AM PDT
    This might be very blunt -but it is the truth: There will never be an unqualified & inexperianced black President of the USA. There would be a "white" one before anything else. Blacks may have come far, as women have, but there are issues that will not just disappear because one is running for the Presidency. If Obama was "white" he wouldhave lost against Hillary. Think about it. The polls will change dramatically in the next two months.
    Reply to this comment
    by chris52562 June 25, 2008 11:12 AM PDT
    I don''t understand how the democrates can be so in Ito Obama. I think it is almost like a groopy thing. I am an independant and I''m not keen on what the "Bush machine" has done , but I find it hard to endorse a first year Senator who for some reason (big money?) has so much power. I do think that McCain has been at least a man who isn''t afraid to go his own way even when the popular vote is against him ( the surge in troops). I may not agree with everything McCain says , but at least he sticks to his guns and dosn''t flip-flop onhis decisions.
    Reply to this comment
    by rowdywicca June 25, 2008 11:19 AM PDT
    Posted by briannorwood at 10:52 AM : Jun 25, 2008

    Two letters for this delusion...

    B....................S!
    Reply to this comment
    by tawpdawg11 June 25, 2008 11:22 AM PDT
    Posted by jack3213 at 11:05 AM : Jun 25, 2008

    Jack-

    Come November we will be voting for the candidate that is talking common sense. Obama is that person. He is closing in on 50 years old. He is not without experience regardless of what Landslide Limbaugh says. His education blows McCain''s away.

    McCain finished 894th out of 899 class rank at Navy. We been there....done that....DISASTER!

    On election day you will notice an ARMY of determined voters marching in lockstep to the polling place. Please stay out of the way. We are dtermined to vote for the person who will look out for the middle class and we don''t care if that person is GREEN!

    You can keep your "ISSUES" with race to yourself.

    The rest of us will take care of business and do what is RIGHT!

    Sorry Jack - SPLAT!
    Reply to this comment
    by tawpdawg11 June 25, 2008 11:27 AM PDT
    I may not agree with everything McCain says , but at least he sticks to his guns and dosn''''t flip-flop onhis decisions.

    Posted by chris52562 at 11:12 AM : Jun 25, 2008


    You''re being facetious, right?
    Reply to this comment
    by tawpdawg11 June 25, 2008 11:28 AM PDT
    What do you think?

    Posted by ijagpoj at 10:53 AM : Jun 25, 2008

    I think you picked a bad week to quit tweakin!
    Reply to this comment
    by wdrussell1 June 25, 2008 11:28 AM PDT
    I am never overconfident. The GOP, since Reagan, has been nothing but a disaster for America, but the one thing they are good at is winning elections.
    Reply to this comment
    by jack3213 June 25, 2008 11:31 AM PDT
    Hye TawpDog- You are an idiot like so many who want to pay high taxes and believe in fairy tales with ignorant liberal fools-LOL
    *splat*-youself!
    Reply to this comment
    by tawpdawg11 June 25, 2008 11:31 AM PDT
    "A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll out yesterday shows Obama with a 12 point edge %u2013 an advantage that stretches to 15 points when Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are included."

    And just a couple weeks ago polls showed McBush was winning vs Clinton OR Obama.

    Nooo........this margin will only get bigger and bigger. Tsunami alert!
    Reply to this comment
    by tawpdawg11 June 25, 2008 11:39 AM PDT
    Hye TawpDog- You are an idiot like so many who want to pay high taxes and believe in fairy tales with ignorant liberal fools-LOL
    *splat*-youself!

    Posted by jack3213 at 11:31 AM : Jun 25, 2008

    I''m sorry for you.
    Reply to this comment
    by jack3213 June 25, 2008 11:40 AM PDT
    "Anything" isn''t better -for the WhiteHouse than - Rebuplican, as some would think. Would you rather have someone who puts this country at risk, raise you taxes, makes you promises that can never be delivered, make you feel and look like a fool? That would happen with a LIBERAL. You are all fools for believing Obama. God help you.
    Reply to this comment
    by Syndicate June 25, 2008 11:41 AM PDT
    McCain is controlling the debate. Obama can only react to McCain. Gas prices will be Obama''s down fall. He doesn''t seem to care that we are suffering. At least McCain is making proposals. What is Obama doing? He calls McCain''s ideas gimmicks. What are Obama''s ideas? (silence with crickets) Obama is upset that gas prices rose to quickly. Perhaps will get lucky and he will slow the rise of prices as he raises them to $10 a gallon. Obama may inspire the ignorant but he scares the hell out of me.
    Reply to this comment
    by tawpdawg11 June 25, 2008 11:42 AM PDT
    make you feel and look like a fool?

    Posted by jack3213 at 11:40 AM : Jun 25, 2008

    You''re doing just fine on your own without any help, sir.
    Reply to this comment
    by tawpdawg11 June 25, 2008 11:47 AM PDT
    What are Obama''''s ideas?

    Posted by cbscrash07 at 11:41 AM : Jun 25, 2008

    Not only does he want to close the Enron loophole, he wants to increase controls on gambling on oil prices. Listening to Monica Crowlyu all day you won''t find out Barack''s plans to better America. But, if you go here:

    http://www.barackobama.com/issues/


    Reply to this comment
    by jack3213 June 25, 2008 11:48 AM PDT
    A "Dummocrat" isn''''t better -for the WhiteHouse than - a Republican, as some would think. Would you rather have someone who puts this country at risk, raise you taxes, makes you promises that can never be delivered, make you feel and look like foolish? That would happen with a LIBERAL. You are all fools for believing Obama. God help you.

    Hey TawDawg- or whatever your name is- Get lost
    Reply to this comment
    by tawpdawg11 June 25, 2008 11:50 AM PDT
    What are Obama''s ideas?

    Posted by cbscrash07 at 11:41 AM : Jun 25, 2008

    Not only does he want to close the Enron loophole, he wants to increase controls on gambling on oil prices. Listening to Monica Crowley all day you won''t find out Barack''''s plans to better America. But, if you go here:

    http://www.barackobama.com/issues/

    you can educate yourself rather than blindly following Limbaugh''s instructions.

    (silence with crickets)

    Reply to this comment
    by tawpdawg11 June 25, 2008 12:05 PM PDT
    That''s right .....you boys better go someplace else where you can post yer BS without gettin yer nose bloodied!
    Reply to this comment
    by max0010 June 25, 2008 12:08 PM PDT
    The Consumers Rights League issued a report that reveals that ACORN (AHC) may have reaped substantial financial gains by misusing taxpayer dollars for political ends. What does OBAMA have to do with ACORN---time to get enlightened!

    http://www.townhall.com/columnists/MichelleMalkin/2008/06/25/the_acorn_obama_knows
    Reply to this comment
    by mattcat25 June 25, 2008 12:11 PM PDT
    Why would any (real) American want to follow the people that have lead us to where we%u2019re at now?

    The Republicans have planned, implemented, and succeeded to hold every American hostage for energy and provide tax cuts to those making huge profits!

    The only weapon the American People have is the Voting Booth, given that the Republicans won%u2019t bamboozle another election%u2026
    Reply to this comment
    by tawpdawg11 June 25, 2008 12:16 PM PDT
    Matt - Speaking of bamboozling elections......

    Why did the NYFD hear all those POP POP POPS as the tower came down?

    Why did I hear all those POP POP POPS on internet footage of the tower collapse?

    Why were there HUGE increases in PUT OPTION VOLUME on airline stocks in the days just before 9/11?

    Are those same "SPECULATORS" making big money now betting on oil futures?

    Will there be another "EVENT" just in the nick of time for McBush?
    Reply to this comment
    by elsylee28 June 25, 2008 12:18 PM PDT
    Guys check out these great article:

    "The Country I Lie To"
    Obama LIES on his first general election ad! Also, a short background check on Obama''s VP adviser; Eric Holder.

    wwww.savagepolitics.com/?p=800

    "Tyrants or Children"
    Kim Jong Il and his North Korean murderers endorse Barack Obama. Also, a short profile of Cindy McCain and her charity work.

    www.savagepolitics.com/?p=805
    Reply to this comment
    by mattcat25 June 25, 2008 12:27 PM PDT
    Jack3213 is one of those people unfortunately (for him) that find themselves completely dependent on the continuation of the Conservative Agenda. I don%u2019t blame him for being combative, antagonistic, and a bit hostile at the prospect of losing his tax shelter or, Bush entitlement program for the wealthy. Jack3213 and those like him have their finger in the doorway and it%u2019s very likely the door could be SLAMMED!

    Vote for change.
    Reply to this comment
    by texanforlogi June 25, 2008 12:37 PM PDT
    I''''m still having trouble getting used to the sound of President B.O.


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Posted by haoli25 at 10:13 AM : Jun 25, 2008

    It''ll get easier! And our country will be the better for it.
    Reply to this comment
    by dnsallday June 25, 2008 12:39 PM PDT
    elsylee28 ...The source you use to get your information (hate speech), says a lot more about you than it does about Barack Obama.
    Reply to this comment
    by dnsallday June 25, 2008 12:41 PM PDT
    Posted by max0010 ....ha ha ha, you get your news from Michelle Malkin. She is making millions off suckers like you
    Reply to this comment
    by dnsallday June 25, 2008 12:43 PM PDT
    Obama is so much more intelligent he is afraid to engage in any debate without prescripted speeches.

    Posted by Cryos
    ******************************
    I really doubt that Obama is afraid of McSybil
    Reply to this comment
    by ozonmojo June 25, 2008 12:45 PM PDT
    A terrorist attack like the London or Madrid bombs is enough to wipe out any major advantage of Obama over McCain.
    Reply to this comment
    by chaos0xomega June 25, 2008 12:45 PM PDT
    "Jack3213 is one of those people unfortunately (for him) that find themselves completely dependent on the continuation of the Conservative Agenda. I don%u2019t blame him for being combative, antagonistic, and a bit hostile at the prospect of losing his tax shelter or, Bush entitlement program for the wealthy. Jack3213 and those like him have their finger in the doorway and it%u2019s very likely the door could be SLAMMED!

    Vote for change."

    Mattcat25, you realize you just described YOURSELF, right? Allow me to assist:

    Mattcat25 is one of those people unfortunately (for him) that find themselves completely dependent on the rekindling of the Democratic Agenda. I don%u2019t blame him for being combative, antagonistic, and a bit hostile at the prospect of losing social welfare, Democratic entitlement program for those too lazy to work(that''s not to say everyone on social welfare IS too lazy to work). Mattcat25 and those like him have their finger in the doorway and it%u2019s very likely the door could be SLAMMED!

    Vote for Reason. Vote McCain.
    Reply to this comment
    by dnsallday June 25, 2008 12:46 PM PDT
    "Dummocrat" isn''''''''t better -for the WhiteHouse than - a Republican, as some would think. Would you rather have someone who puts this country at risk, raise you taxes, makes you promises that can never be delivered, make you feel and look like foolish? That would happen with a LIBERAL. You are all fools for believing Obama. God help you.

    Posted by jack3213
    ********************************
    So far we have the anti-Obama commenters admit to being puppets for Limbaugh, savage and Michelle Malkin. All documented liars.
    Reply to this comment
    by pvperson June 25, 2008 12:56 PM PDT
    And where do you hope the attack will occur ozonmojo? Home Land Security is waiting to know.
    Reply to this comment
    by pvperson June 25, 2008 12:58 PM PDT
    haoli25...If McCain gets elected we''ll need to get used to hearing C**T all the time, Which is worse, BO or C**T?
    Reply to this comment
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