Starting Gate: For Clinton, Mission Unaccomplished

Hillary Clinton got the kind of debate conditions she wanted in Philadelphia last night. A heavy focus on Barack Obama’s problem spots in the campaign (such as those “bitter” comments and Rev. Wright) dominated the entire first half. There was even a “surprise” twist thrown in when Obama was grilled about his relationship with former Weather Underground radical William Ayers.

This was the ground of Clinton’s choosing, a debate as much about the issue of electability as the issues of the day. And Obama withered a bit in the spotlight. Clearly prepared for the “bitter” debate (and the piling on from Clinton), he seemed taken by surprise as that segued into more discussions about Jeremiah Wright and Ayers. About the only “skeleton” kept in the closet was indicted Chicago developer Tony Rezko.

It was in so many ways almost a perfect setup for Clinton’s remaining argument in the Democratic primary contest – that she is the most electable. That’s what she is trying to convince voters of in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia. More importantly, it’s the argument she’d like to convince those all-important superdelegates of before this process is over.

Two things worked against Clinton in that drive last night. First, for the first time (in at least a very long time), she emphatically agreed that Obama could defeat John McCain in November. When first asked the question, she tried to dodge it, talking about her confidence that Democrats would win in November. But when pressed about whether Obama can win, she said “yes, yes, yes.”

But what may hurt Clinton most is the one thing working in her favor – Obama’s stumbles. She didn’t appear elegant in piling on last night but she didn’t exactly overplay her hand either. But the sight of the front-runner sweating under the spotlight may lead to an increased desire among Democratic leaders to get this nomination process over with quickly. And the only way to do that is for Obama to win it and avoid an August convention fight.

If there is lasting damage to the party’s ability to unify for the general election, it’s far more likely to come from a Clinton nomination. Obama has generated genuine excitement and opened up a flood of new donors to the party. His support is passionate and comes from two groups – blacks and young voters – likely to be most turned off should they feel the nomination is somehow taken unjustly by Clinton (i.e. superdelegates). He leads in delegates, the popular vote and total contests won.

Party leaders do not want to find themselves in a position where they appear to be handing the nomination to Clinton after all that’s happened in this race. The damage to the party in that case might last far beyond November. Events like last night’s debate might increase the sense of urgency to put this primary process behind them.


Royalties Welcomed: Obama released his 2007 tax returns yesterday, showing that he and wife Michelle earned $4.2 million last year, mostly income from the sales of Obama’s two books. Income from the sales of “Dreams From My Father” and “The Audacity of Hope,” both written previous to 2007, accounted for about $4 million of the couple’s total income in a year spent mostly on the campaign trail. Obama earned just over $157,000 from his salary as a U.S. Senator and Michelle Obama earned over $103,000 in her position as a vice president at the University of Chicago Medical Center. The couple paid $277,431 in federal taxes and their charitable donations included $26,270 to Trinity United Church of Christ, the former church of Rzev. Jeremiah Wright, whose controversial statements have caused problems for Obama’s campaign.


Delegate Count Update: Just because we haven’t had a primary contest for five weeks or so doesn’t mean that the delegate counts have remained static. Here’s the most recent count from the CBS News election and survey unit: Obama leads overall in CBS News’ delegate estimate, 1,637 to 1,495 (2,025 total are needed to win the nomination). Among “pledged” delegates won in state contests (excluding Florida and Michigan), Obama leads 1,411 to 1,243 with 566 remaining to be won in upcoming contests. Among “superdelegates” who have declared support for a candidate, Clinton retains a narrow 252 to 226 lead with 317 who have yet to decide.


Around The Track

In a meeting with Jewish leaders in Philadelphia yesterday, Obama criticized former president Jimmy Carter’s plans to sit visit with leaders of Hamas during an upcoming trip to the Middle East. “We must not negotiate with a terrorist group intent on Israel's destruction," Obama said. "We should only sit down with Hamas if they renounce terrorism, recognize Israel's right to exist and abide by past agreements."

John McCain responded to Rep. John Murtha’s suggestion that he is too old to be president in an interview with CNN yesterday. Murtha, who at 75 is four years older than McCain, said that the stresses of the job were too much for someone their age. “"All I can tell you is that I admire and respect Jack Murtha,” McCain responded. “Speak for yourself, Jack. I'm doing fine. Thanks."

Michelle Obama spent another day fighting back against the perception that her husband is an elitist who is out of touch with small town Americans. Stumping in Indiana, the candidate’s wife said he understands the frustrations that exist. “We
shouldn't be surprised that people are cynical,” she said. “There is a level of cynicism that comes when you feel like no matter how hard you work, no matter how much you do, you never catch up and you certainly can't get ahead. So you don't believe that politics can do anything for you, you lose hope. Naturally, you fold your arms in disgust of the process."

Executives at ESPN have put the kibosh on a discussed interview by popular columnist Bill Simmons and Obama, saying that the network does sports, not politics. “Fans don’t expect political coverage on our outlets,” said ESPN public relations exec Josh Krulewitz.