Horserace
February 8, 2008 8:57 AM

Starting Gate: So Long, For Now

(AP)
Mitt Romney has left the building but he probably hasn't left the political arena all together. He very well may be a presidential candidate again, especially should a Democrat win the White House in November. A person who puts an estimated $40 to $50 million of his own money on a campaign has some ambition.

The question is which Mitt Romney would we see on the next go-around? Will we see the rock-solid social conservative who spent so much of his campaign explaining how he arrived at those positions after years of holding the opposite ones? Or will we see the CEO Romney who saved the Salt Lake City Olympics, made millions of dollars in the private sector and managed a state?

Romney spent so much time trying to convince voters that he was a new and improved conservative on some of the core issues of the party that his real strengths were muffled, if not lost altogether.

Nobody on the Republican side of the aisle ran a better nuts-and-bolts campaign than Romney. He hired all the right people, armed them with state-of-the-art technology and techniques, did and said all the right things and outworked the competition. Romney (and his large family) spent enough time roaming the state of Iowa that they're on a first-name basis with the entire population.

He spread around enough money to qualify as a stimulus package. As a business model, it was top-shelf. But campaigns aren’t businesses, they're contests about message and personalities and Romney couldn't sell his at the end. The perception that his conversions on social issues were politically expedient left an opening for Mike Huckabee in Iowa. His focus on holding that state, and his failure to push economic concerns, left room for John McCain's resurgence in New Hampshire.

Romney's sole early win was in Michigan. As one of his three home states, and one where his father once served as governor, it's easy to overlook. But it's a state McCain won big in 2000 and Romney beat him there. How? By focusing his message on the economy and his business know-how and playing to his strength.

Had Romney run his Michigan campaign throughout the process, he may still not have won Iowa. But he may have had a better shot at winning Florida, the state where McCain began pulling away from the field. It may have helped him in California as well, a state where a win would have likely saved his campaign. More importantly, it may have helped him connect to voters on an authentic level.

If he gets a shot to run in 2012, Romney will start in a better position. Having become the anti-McCain candidate for conservatives, he leaves the race with a lot of good will, something his exit speech at CPAC demonstrated. Next time, he can be himself.


Still Stewing: McCain has started to rally GOP institutional support behind his candidacy. Even Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran, who has been a harsh critic of McCain and has raised questions about his temperament signaled to the Washington Post that he's on board. "Oh, yes, I'll support John," he told the paper. But the rank-and-file is still a problem. Yesterday, evangelical leader James Dobson, who has said he will never support McCain, endorsed Mike Huckabee. "I am endorsing Gov. Mike Huckabee for President of the United States today," he said in a statement issued as a private citizen, not representing his organization, Focus on the Family. "My decision comes in the wake of my statement on Super Tuesday that I could not vote for Sen. John McCain, even if he goes on to win the Republican nomination. His record on the institution of the family and other conservative issues makes his candidacy a matter of conscience and concern for me."


The GOP Thinks The Dems Are Tied, Too: From CBSNews.com's David Miller, at the CPAC convention: Any close observer of political rhetoric attending the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington this week may have noticed a shift in the way Republicans talk about the Democratic race -- a shift that indicates even they think the Democrat they all love to bash, Hillary Clinton, may not win this thing after all.

Over the course of several panels and speakers -- and in talking to many people attending the event -- it was hard to find someone who would mention Clinton without throwing in Barack Obama's name immediately afterward. That reflects a shift from earlier in the race: After Clinton's comeback win in New Hampshire, Republican candidates often spoke of her as though she was the only one running.

Apparently, the results on Super Tuesday, a night on which Obama won the majority of states and possibly even more delegates than Clinton, changed the way the GOP views the race.

John McCain's CPAC speech definitely shows he's unsure of who he'll face in the general election: "Senator Clinton and Senator Obama want to increase the size of the federal government," "Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will raise your taxes," and "Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will withdraw our forces from Iraq based on an arbitrary timetable," were some of the claims he made Thursday, always making sure to include both Democrats in his critique.

It's not exactly the kind of acknowledgment Obama's going to tout in a press release, but coming from a party that loves to hate Clinton, it may be a somewhat meaningful barometer of the state of the race.


Around The Track

  • Shelve any thoughts that Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman might be able to have an impact on selecting the Democratic nominee. The Democrat-turned-Independent is still a registered Democrat and caucuses with the party in the Senate but his endorsement of McCain disqualifies him from being a super delegate, according to the Hartford Courant.

  • Super Tuesday is not in the books yet. We may not know the winner of the Democratic caucuses in New Mexico for a couple more days as we await the counting of more than 17,000 provisional ballots, according to the AP. With the rest of the votes counted, Clinton leads by a little more than 1,100 votes.

  • Republicans vote this weekend in Washington, Kansas and Louisiana while Democrats square off in Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska the Virgin Islands and Maine. Are we the only ones who are starting to think there are more than 50 states?

  • Barack Obama launched his candidacy one year ago today.
  • Tags:
    Romney ,
    McCain ,
    Huckabee ,
    Clinton ,
    Obama
    Topics:
    Starting Gate
    Add a Comment
    by bayoujackie February 9, 2008 11:34 AM EST
    The CBS story of Mike Huckabee''s relationship with Kenneth Copeland barely scratched the surface on Huck''s lack of ethics, his years of questionable fundraising, personal use of public funds, backdoor gifts of items and cash and the ever-present Huck above-it-all attitude of "how dare you ask questions of me." He is a self-centered, self-serving person who cared more about what buildings were named after him (and his wife Janet), and how he could use anyone else''s money and jets for his personal use. He has had his hand out (and passed the offering plate) his entire adult life, this campaign is no different. The American people should be smarter than to think a fast-talking, eloquent speaking guitar player is really qualified to be President of the United States. He is a tax & fee raising, free spending, government-builder devois of ethics whose real record in Arkansas deserves much more scrutiny than this one solid story. Reporters need to look under the nice guy persona and dig deeper and REPORT. The Arkansas Times and others in the media in AR have long reported about Huckabee. Get past the nice guy on the surface, reveal the self-serving heretic, just like Kenneth Copeland is, below the smiling Mike Huckabee facade.
    Huck VP? Why would John McCain want to spend the fall campaign trying to explain when the world began, what creationism is and whether he embraces Kenneth Copeland and his money-grabbing from seniors and poor people?
    Reply to this comment
    by ih2005 February 9, 2008 6:04 AM EST
    Increasingly, Mike Huckabee is what Leadership looks like ( http://snipr.com/leaderlook ). He''s an adroit public speaker; he''s all about calling his listeners to "do something," to awaken them to their own empowerment, and summon them to action in order that "Main Street," and not "Wall Street," will prevail in guarding the values and beliefs upon which the Republic was founded.

    Huckabee puts his listeners at ease, and reassures them, articulating clear concepts in a natural, easy style (no doubt something well-cultivated as a pastor). One can easily imagine sitting comfortably with Mike over a cup of coffee at the Main Street Cafe.

    Most importantly, Huckabee is ONE with the FairTax grassroots movement ( http://snipr.com/nextrung ). Recent responses to FairTax questioning on %u201CThis Week with Geo. Stephanopoulos ( http://snipurl.com/stephanopoulosdebate )%u201D drew a sharp contrast between Huckabee and all other presidential front-runners who will not embrace it. Huckabee understands that what''s wrong with the income tax can''t be fixed with "a tap of the hammer, nor a twist of the screwdriver." That his opponents cling to the destructive Tax Code, the IRS, preserving political power of granting tax favors at continued cost to - and misery of - American families, invigorates his campaign''s raison d''etre. %u201CMain Street%u201D will have to demand ( http://snipr.com/scrapthecode ) that their legislators deliver the bill to Huckabee, if elected.
    Reply to this comment
    by waynew57 February 8, 2008 3:46 PM EST
    Part-IV

    The RNC%u2019s decision to support John McCain is demonstrating the mindset of the RNC is no longer interested in being the guiding light of many in the GOP but instead has evolved into that of TAKE-TAKE-TAKE and screw the voters'' for big business mentality.

    It is clearly time for the RNC to be demolished & dismantled again (like in 1976 history does have a way of repeating itself). I must follow someone this election year ... I will not follow McCain or Huckabee but instead I shall follow either Obama or Clinton and where-ever that may lead me.

    Thank you.
    Reply to this comment
    by waynew57 February 8, 2008 3:44 PM EST
    Part-III

    But what stands out in my mind is John McCain%u2019s arrogance towards the citizens of the United States of America. His remarks about migrant workers do the work we will not do ... and his insistence that he is right and the opposition is dead wrong. What ever happened to free speech? To think he actually wants to reward criminals? What an awful example for our youth. No wonder knives and weapons are confiscated every day at schools across the USA. Schools used to be places to learn. Not today - because John McCain%u2019s lesson to our youth has been for at least six years now that crime does pay for illegal immigrants and their families. Think of our children and their children... McCain and Huckabee could care less about our children and their future in a way we conservatives define. The two and the RNC don''t give a ***, beyond any reasonable doubt. Why not? They have no conscience.

    Continued...
    Reply to this comment
    by waynew57 February 8, 2008 3:42 PM EST
    Part-II

    McCain, simply put, is not capable of earning my vote. He has no voting record I support. John McCain%u2019s arrogance towards the citizens of the United States of America is very well documented. John McCain%u2019s corruption is clearly shown by his involvement with the Keating group and promising the Whitewater group they will be pardoned. John McCain%u2019s corruption is further enhanced by his lies and deceits of the public as in McCain/Feingold campaign finance reform bill that was supposed to establish ethics and campaign finance laws but really does not go the extent the public was demanding - that a new person could run and compete when in fact all it did was help established candidates. John McCain%u2019s anger towards fellow GOP members and the American voting public is well documented in the US Senate Archives. John McCain%u2019s support for the North American Union and desire to give big-businesses low-wage laborers in the form of illegal immigrants instead of making business-executives accept lower levels of compensation will destroy the sovereignty of our country and its Constitution and Institutions conservatives hold dear for decades. All John McCain has done is show youth CRIME DOES PAY HUGE DIVIDENDS.

    Continued...
    Reply to this comment
    by waynew57 February 8, 2008 3:38 PM EST

    Part-I

    My stance is a candidate MUST earn my vote - and I know the RNC will write eloquent, nice sounding speeches for McCain and Huckabee to deliver trying to attract voters but do not expect McCain and Huckabee to stand behind the words in those speeches. Once elected, McCain or Huckabee will do whatever they want or what the RNC tells them - with a fancy SPIN by certain analysts in the news media. McCain and Huckabee and the RNC are all united by one common trait - they are liars (beyond any reasonable doubt).

    Continued...
    Reply to this comment

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