Giuliani Exit May Benefit McCain But Where Do Edwards Voters Go?

Kathy Frankovic, director of surveys for CBSNews.com offers her analysis of what might happen to John Edwards’ supporters now that he is dropping out:

On the Republican side, we can make the assumption that many of those who favored Rudy Giuliani will now support John McCain – he’s tough on terrorism, he appeals to independent voters, much as the former Mayor of New York hoped to. But trying to figure out what the Edwards supporters will do is not so easy.

The Florida Democratic primary may not have mattered in terms of delegates, but it can tell us what a lot of voters do without a real campaign in their state. Edwards voters in Florida were very different from those favoring Barack Obama and those voting for Hillary Clinton.

First of all, Edwards had almost no minority support. One percent of African-Americans and only 8 percent of Hispanics voted for him. He ran best with white men, getting one in four of their votes (about the same share that Obama received). One in four Edwards voters called themselves conservatives – and just a third said they were liberal. Majorities of Clinton and Obama voters called themselves liberals.

[By the way, Clinton received 25 percent of African-American votes in Florida, and Obama 23 percent of white votes.]

Second, the Edwards supporters were the most likely to say that they would be dissatisfied if either of the other candidates won the nomination. Fifty-three percent of them would be dissatisfied if Clinton won the nomination, and 52 percent if Obama won (most of Clinton’s and Obama’s voters said they’d be satisfied whatever the final outcome). Edwards voters were also much less likely to think that the country overall was ready to elect a black or a female president than other voters were – 59 percent versus 82 percent of all Florida Democrats in the case of a woman, 57 percent versus 71 percent in the case of a black.

This isn’t a white male feeling – men and women who voted for Edwards answered these questions pretty much the same way.

So Edwards might not be able to move his voters to either of the other candidates en masse. Some of his supporters will clearly opt not to support either Clinton or Obama.