February 11, 2009 9:30 PM

Three-Week Honeymoon

An early term report card on the new Bush administration from CBS News Senior Political Editor Dotty Lynch.

Twenty days into the first hundred and the Bush team is feeling good. The Washington press corps and the American people are giving them a honeymoon. And the Gallup poll out this week shows President Bush's job approval rating at 57 percent, just about the same as President Clinton’s at the same point in 1993 and a tad higher than Mr. Bush's father's rating in 1989.

After the tortures of the election that wouldn't end, Mr. Bush has had surprisingly smooth sailing so far. With the exception of scuttled Labor nominee Linda Chavez, his original Cabinet choices are all in place, and he's kept his conservative base happy with the appointment of John Ashcroft as attorney general. One Bush advisor said that the Ashcroft nomination has given them the leeway to reach out to Democrats without getting the right all stirred up.

Mr. Bush's campaign policy priorities — education, tax cuts and aid to faith-based institutions — have been successfully launched. And his overtures to Democrats have been widely appreciated by a Washington establishment pining for bipartisanship — though not by some members of the Congressional Black Caucus.

The Bush brain trust — mainly consisting of chief of staff Andy Card, communications czar Karen Hughes and political whiz Karl Rove — has designed and implemented a "theme of the week" strategy starting with education in week one, followed by compassion and values last week, and now tax cuts.

The theme weeks have been filled with made-for-TV moments and lots of "real people," especially kids. These symbols are designed to demonstrate that Mr. Bush truly has an agenda and plans to make good on his campaign promises. On tax cuts, a Bush aide said it was important to convince people that the plan is what he wanted, even if the bill itself gets bogged down.

But the major thrust of the Bush strategy is to show America that the president is, in their words, "in command." The CBS News poll taken just before the inauguration showed that only 38 percent of Americans expected that Mr. Bush would really be in control of what went on in his presidency, while 53 percent felt "other people would really be running the government." Mr. Bush spent much of the campaign climbing out of his father’s shadow and then, during the transition, he was secluded at his Texas ranch while Dick Cheney ran the show.

It is especially important to the Bush advisors that he's seen as being in command of foreign policy. Americans divided 45 percent to 45 percent on whether they trust his ability to handle a foreign crisis. In the next few weeks Mr. Bush will make his first foreign trip (to Mexico), and then the former Texas National Guardsman will visit several domestic military bases.

The trip to Mexico is desiged largely for domestic consumption. While the White House is focused on short-term successes, they also have a longer-term agenda in mind.

Mr. Bush’s political gurus have identified Hispanic voters as their number-one target for 2004. In the 2000 election, Hispanics made up 7 percent of the vote, and they are a growing constituency in crucial states like Florida, New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado. The Bush team believes if he can raise his vote from 35 percent to 40 percent or higher with Hispanics he will have a big advantage on his way toward reelection in 2004. As Texas governor, Mr. Bush doubled his support among Hispanics between 1994 and 1998, receiving almost half of their votes in his second run.

So far, so good for the first 20 percent of the first hundred days. But the Bush team is all too aware that poll ratings in the early part of the term don't necessarily lead to success. Former President Bush (called "41" by the current President Bush, a.k.a. "43") was up to a 91 percent approval rating a year before he was defeated by Bill Clinton ("42"). But despite that they are trying to take advantage of the first few months to set a course, correct some image problems and get set for the rough times that always come with the territory.


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