Congressional Races Off And Running

It's said that all politics is local, but many experts say it's the war in Iraq that will have the biggest impact on the congressional elections in November, reports CBS News correspondent Sharyl Attkisson.

Labor Day marks the traditional start of the fall campaign season, with the elections exactly nine weeks away. Democrats are hoping for big gains, while Republicans are counting on voters to trust them the most when it comes to handling foreign affairs.

Incumbent Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., was the first high-profile casualty of growing dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq. He lost the Democratic primary to anti-war opponent Ned Lamont.

Lieberman is now running as an independent, but Democrats are hoping it will be Republicans who are hurting on Election Day.

Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania is considered one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the Senate.

Right now, Republicans call most of the shots in Congress because they hold the majority of seats in the Senate and House.

Democrats need a net gain of six seats to seize control of the Senate. They see opportunities in at least seven states.

In the House, they think their chances are even better. There, the balance is 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats with one independent and two vacancies. Democrats need to net 15 extra seats to take control.

If they do, it will be the biggest win of all for California Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic House leader. She would become the first woman speaker of the House and promises big changes in Washington.

"I hope that if the election turns out the way I like, that we would be able to start the new year in that way for the American people, a new direction for the American people," says Pelosi.

A Quinnipiac University national poll released today shows, however, that Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, who will become Majority Leader if the Democrats take control in November, "are neither well thought of, nor widely known, to most Americans."

Republicans say that new direction would be a hard left turn — left as in liberal, which would make things more difficult for the president who could count on little to no cooperation from the House on his agenda.

"Right now it's clear the election has already been pretty well nationalized," says Amy Walter, senior editor of the Cook Political Report on CBS News' The Early Show. "The war in Iraq is a very big issue with voters and it sits like a fog over this election and permeates the electorate.

"Voters are saying they are not happy with the president, the direction in Iraq and the direction on the economy, so it's ripe right now for Democrats. If the election were held today, certainly Democrats could be able to win the majority in the House. Obviously, it's not today. So we have to wait is and see what the next two months bring."

The midterm elections are not the only thing on the minds of Democrats and Republicans. Many are already looking ahead to the big race in 2008 for the White House.

The presidential election is more than two years away, but CBS News senior White House correspondent Bill Plante reports that in the states where the nominations are likely to be decided, they're already crawling with candidates.

Never before have so many candidates for president started campaigning so early in states with early primaries or caucuses.

This will be the first presidential election in 56 years where there hasn't been an incumbent running, so it's wide open. Ten Republican hopefuls keep turning up in Iowa and New Hampshire.

There are governors like Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, George Pataki of New York and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani hold no office.

Then there are the senators — George Allen, Sam Brownback, Bill Frist and Chuck Hagel, and frontrunner John McCain, who made sure to show up at the Iowa State Fair after skipping it last time around.

"I am told that it is a ritual that must be repeated by all persons who are considering candidacy for president of the United States," McCain said.

And there are just as many Democrats out there – Sens. Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Russ Feingold and John Kerry, and former Sens. Tom Daschle and John Edwards.

New Hampshire will be hugely important, as will be Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada, the places where there are early primaries. If you live in any of those states, says Plante, watch out because there is a politician coming with his or her hand out who wants to get to know you.

Amy Walter says McCain and Hillary Rodham Clinton are the early frontrunners.

Walter says McCain's "biggest hurdle right now actually is among members of his own party. Remember, these primaries do start very early, of course, which he has an advantage because he is well-known, but they are also populated by folks who are more conservative."

As for Clinton, Walter says that "among members of her own party, they like her very much. She is certainly well-funded, well-known, no doubt. At the same time, the question for Clinton is can she convince enough democratic primary voters she can win the general election? Right now that is her biggest hurdle."