Will "keep your plan" will be a 2014 election issue?

Will "keep your plan" will be a 2014 election issue? Democratic House members who just voted "yes" on the Republicans' "keep your plan" bill probably think so. Thirty-one of 39 are in our competitive/potentially competitive districts list.

The average CBS partisan index of their districts is a slender +3 points, meaning most fall within a range of "swing" that could go either way next year. In fact half of them are in districts with even closer partisan balances, many dead-even.

These are Democrats likely to be targeted by Republican efforts to oust them, and they're a critical group because if the Democrats are to have any chance of re-taking the House (which is not likely, in any event) they will surely need to hold on to almost all of these seats, at a minimum. These House Democrats will of course need to hang on to moderates and even some conservative independents next year.

Anthony Salvanto

Anthony Salvanto, Ph.D., is CBS News' director of elections and surveys. He oversees all polling across the nation, states and congressional races, and heads the CBS News Decision Desk that estimates outcomes on election nights. He is the author of "Where Did You Get This Number: A Pollster's Guide to Making Sense of the World" (Simon & Schuster) and appears regularly across all CBS News platforms. His scholarly research and writings cover topics on polling methodology, voting behavior and sampling techniques.

Twitter