Starting Gate: How Confident Is He?
For a campaign which has insisted that its vice presidential selection process will be conducted out of sight of the prying eyes of the media, there sure is a lot of leaks about Barack Obama's search for a running mate. To be fair, most of the "revelations" about the process appear to have come from sources surrounding those being vetted and not the campaign itself, but it illustrates the messiness of the process nonetheless.
The primary focus of today's boomlet on the Obama VP front is Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, who, according to CBS News chief political consultant Marc Ambinder is definitely among those being vetted by the campaign. But both the Politico and the Washington Post take the Kaine angle a bit further, reporting that he is high on the list and that he has had conversations with the candidate about the possibility.
The other names being mentioned as serious contenders are Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius and Delaware Senator Joe Biden. All accounts point to more names under consideration and one has to wonder what it does to a potential pick to have all this information out there. But these four names do allow us to at least speculate on what is driving Obama's decision.
Does he go relatively safe and pick an experienced Washington hand like Bayh or Biden? Or, does he follow up with the suggestion he made this Sunday and select someone like Kaine or Sebelius who would represent a "shake-up" of the Washington political establishment?
If that choice is helping determine his pick of a running mate, where the candidate comes down might depend on how confident he is of victory this November. The first rule in picking your running mate is "do no harm" – after that there aren't any real rules. Very few potential candidates are going to make a real difference in a state or region and while they can help shore up a perceived weakness, they also help point out that weakness.
The real question for Obama may be whether he feels that he has won the argument of experience versus judgment. Certainly he won that battle (narrowly) in the Democratic primary and his recent photo-ops with world leaders and economic heavyweights don't hurt. But the polls indicate he hasn't closed the deal yet.
If change is indeed the driving force of the election, it makes sense to select someone for the ticket who reinforces that change. Kaine is a Washington outsider whose life story embodies much of Obama's world view. Sebelius has spearheaded dramatic political change in Kansas, once dominated by Republicans but now a very serious two-party state. If the campaign thinks Obama can win regardless of who the running mate is, these kinds of candidates would be very attractive.
But if there are questions about the ability to get over lingering doubts of the candidate himself, having a "grown-up" on the ticket might be the way to go. It's hard to believe eight years later but George W. Bush's selection of Dick Cheney in 2000 was widely hailed for that very reason.
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