Republican Evolution

Political Players is a weekly conversation with the leaders, consultants, and activists who are shaping American politics. This week, as Michael Bloomberg announced his resignation from the Republican party, and as Fred Thompson continues to prepare a presidential bid, CBS News' Brian Goldsmith talks with veteran GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio about the state of Republican politics.

CBSNews.com: How formidable is Michael Bloomberg as a potential third party candidate?

Tony Fabrizio: I think that Michael Bloomberg is formidable in terms of his potential to sway the election one way or the other. I think you need to look at Mayor Bloomberg as like a cruise missile with unlimited fuel and a huge payload. But nobody knows quite where it could strike.

I can make an argument that Mayor Bloomberg could, depending on how he runs, hurt the Republican presidential nominee, hurt the Democratic presidential nominee, or be of neutral impact on the race altogether. It all depends on how he chooses to position himself in the race.

CBSNews.com: There is an argument that Bloomberg might hurt the Democrats more given the pool of voters that a socially liberal, urban candidate would draw from. What do you see as the more likely scenario? Or is it just totally unpredictable?

Tony Fabrizio: It is unpredictable because there are several factors that go into play. One is that I could see a scenario where you have a very fractious Democrat or Republican nomination fight that lasts longer than the other side.

And during that period of time when one nomination lasts longer than the other, you can see where it would be smart for the Republican or Democratic party to go in and try to define Bloomberg, to push him to the other side. If I were the Democrats, I'd try to make Bloomberg a Republican creation. If I were the Republicans, I'd try to push Bloomberg to the left, and basically say, "He's really not a Republican."

To start the definition process so that Bloomberg doesn't get a free chance to define himself. Now, you're never going to be able to out-shout the guy, but depending on how that occurs, it could be problematic if you have one side pinned down in a grueling nomination fight, and the other side with resources and time available to it.

CBSNews.com: The talk of Bloomberg supporters seems to be that his decision is dependent on who the two major parties nominate. If they each put up somebody he sees as polarizing, then he'd get in. If they nominate people who have some appeal among independents, then he might not. But can he afford to wait that long?

Tony Fabrizio: When you have the potential to spend a billion dollars, sure. I presume he would be a Reform Party candidate. I would assume that given that one of the largest Reform Party units is in the State of New York.

And I would assume that Bloomberg has some type of relationship with the Reform Party chairman in New York. If you're the Reform Party and Michael Bloomberg comes and says, "I want to carry your banner, and I'm going to spend a half billion dollars to do it" basically you'd be nuts if you're the Reformed Party and you said, "No."

CBSNews.com: But do you think there's enough time to set up the infrastructure to get the 700,000 signatures to get on the ballot in all 50 states if he waits until March of next year?

Tony Fabrizio: I think that they're on the ballot in a number of states. And I think that the ones that they're not on the ballot, I think when you have a half a billion dollars you can get a lot done when you need to get it done. And I wouldn't be surprised if they're out moving around ahead of that time.

And what is the litmus test? I mean, who on the Democrats' side are the Democrats going to nominate that is so far left? Or who on the Republican side are they going nominate that's so far Right?

CBSNews.com: If Bloomberg called you tomorrow and said, "Okay, how do we position ourselves for a purely centrist, up-the-middle campaign that's viable," where does he stand on Iraq? Where does he stand on stem cell research? A lot of people have speculated that his positions aren't very different from the Democratic mainstream.

Tony Fabrizio: If Michael Bloomberg picked up the phone and called me, and said, "Tony, I want to be president, how do I get to be president?" I would tell him, "Michael, the best way to become president is for you to have changed position from Republican to Democrat a year ago. Say it was because of the war, and jump into the Democratic primaries and spend a billion dollars."

Because, fundamentally, if you look at what is going on today, and you look at the intensity that Democrats are generating versus the intensity Republicans are generating, what is the reason for a Democrat to vote for Michael Bloomberg, not the Democratic nominee? If you are most motivated by the war or health care or things of that nature, is the Democratic nominee going to be that far out of step with you?

CBSNews.com: Perhaps he is counting on a big pool of Independents and unaffiliated voters in the middle.

Tony Fabrizio: Ah, but here's the problem. If he ran his race, I am going to have to assume that he's going to be anti-war at the end of the day and he's soft on the social issues. So that means at the end of the day you could see a campaign by Michael Bloomberg where, in fact, he's running as a fiscal conservative, who's opposed to the war, and socially moderate. Now, who's that going to suck votes off of? More likely to pick up Republicans, disaffected Republicans and Independents who are uncomfortable voting for the Democrats.

CBSNews.com: Turning to the Republicans, Fred Thompson clearly appears to be getting into the race. There was a Rasmussen Poll this week that showed him leading nationally by one point. Can he really win this thing?

Tony Fabrizio: The truth is that I don't think he's leading yet. And the key operative word is yet. Short and simple about Fred Thompson -- if Fred Thompson gets in this race I will tell you right now, right here, that it's his race to lose.

CBSNews.com: Why is he so formidable?

Tony Fabrizio: He is so formidable because he is the guy that without even being in this race is filling the vacuum as the Consensus Conservative.

CBSNews.com: Mitt Romney is trying to fill that role and has made inroads in the early states, why not him?

Tony Fabrizio: Well, Romney is going to try to make a shot at filling it in the early states. But what's going to happen is that once Thompson gets in, one presumes that Thompson is going to be an equal challenge to him in those early states. Now, all of what I just said about Thompson is true, but can his team, whoever that is, turn all of this potential into reality?

CBSNews.com: Is it possible in this day and age, when people start running for president three and a half years before, to get in this late and win?

Tony Fabrizio: Sure, if you're a big enough celebrity. Does anybody doubt that if somebody like Jeb Bush jumped into the race late, that he would have a leg up?

It depends who you are. Certainly if you're a nobody, no. But if you're a somebody, and a somebody who has assets to bring to the table, sure. But I will tell you this, you can't get into the race a year after everybody else and not work hard. You can't get into the race a year after everybody else and raise a quarter of the money they raise.

But if this guy doesn't get the nomination, he should take everybody who works for him outside and shoot them. I mean, they're going to get into the race literally tied with the front-runner.

CBSNews.com: And what's the message that he needs to give that others aren't giving?

Tony Fabrizio: That he is the electable conservative you can trust. He hasn't changed his positions. He's with you on the issues, he shares your values, and you can trust him.

CBSNews.com: Would you agree that the guy he hurts the most is Romney because they're both trying to fill the same ideological/temperamental space in the Republican Primary?

Tony Fabrizio: In a percentage basis, yes.

CBSNews.com: So if you're Romney's chief strategist, how does he deal with Thompson?

Tony Fabrizio: First of all, I have to tell you I think Romney has run one of the most disciplined campaigns to date of any of the candidates. And I'm not, you know, working for Romney, I've said some very pointed things about Romney so I'm not a Romney supporter.

But I think they've run a very disciplined campaign not taking their eye off the ball. They want to become the consensus conservative. I think where they see their opportunity is, can Thompson in fact capitalize on his surge?

In other words, if they can't translate the potential into reality, Romney's there.

CBSNews.com: So it's a wait and see strategy?

Tony Fabrizio: Well, because right now, what do they do? Thompson's not in the race. What do they say about this?

If they go out and attack Thompson now, it's going to look hugely desperate. They're setting up a situation where they put themselves in the lead in the first couple of states, then Thompson has to come after them.

CBSNews.com: And then they counterattack?

Tony Fabrizio: Right. So I think they're playing their cards pretty smart.

CBSNews.com: And what does McCain do to reverse this downward spiral that seems to have started at the beginning of the year and isn't letting up?

Tony Fabrizio: I mean, I challenge you to go back in recent history and show me a front-runner that did not win the nomination.

I challenge you on the Republican side. I challenge you to go back and find one. I mean, you know, McCain has been running for president for eight years.

I know a lot of the guys that surround McCain, I have respect for them, but John McCain needs to execute some people. I mean, John McCain is on the precipice of becoming hereto an irrelevant candidate.

CBSNews.com: And so what's the change in strategy that he needs to execute? First of all, what's gone wrong? And, secondly, what should he do to fix it?

Tony Fabrizio: What is my reason for voting for John McCain?

CBSNews.com: So there's a lack of a message?

Tony Fabrizio: What is it? I mean, John McCain missed an opportunity to use Rudy Giuliani as his spoil to reposition himself within the party.

Now he shoots at one side on Romney, the other side on Giuliani. Well, what are you doing? One day if you're Mr. Let's-attack-the-world, the next day you're Mr. Let-all-the-immigrants-come-in, you're constantly undercutting any move forward you make by giving conflicting messages.

You know, I'm not saying you need to be pure on everything, but you cannot be opposites. People get whiplash trying to figure out what John McCain is. And you can't have that.

The only way John McCain can resurrect himself is -- if he has a bad quarter fundraising -- is if the media will give him a second look if he has the Saturday night massacre. And whoever comes in comes up with a new strategy that they stick to and they move forward with.

CBSNews.com: So, the old question: is Giuliani electable in a Republican primary?

Tony Fabrizio: It depends how fast the field whittles itself down. There is a possibility that Thompson and Romney actually stall each other, and Giuliani is able to hold onto just enough.

Take the scenario that McCain's out and nobody else gets in, and Giuliani becomes the king of the moderates.

Now the question becomes, of the 65 or 70 percent that are conservative in the primary, how much can he get? Can Giuliani hold onto 20 percent of conservatives to make himself competitive in all these states?

So then what happens is you go and you look at February 5th when you have a slew of states that are winner-take-all by congressional district, and you can see how Giuliani can cobble together a lot of delegates. Particularly since New York and New Jersey are in the bag.

If Giuliani can't win New York and New Jersey, he might as well get out of the race. He could make inroads before that into Florida and then California. I mean, now you could wake up on February 5th with Giuliani being a significant delegate leader.

Then how fast does the field whittle down? Who emerges as the consensus conservative? Because then there'll be a rush to stop this guy.

CBSNews.com: But can he survive losing by a lot in Iowa and New Hampshire?

Tony Fabrizio: I think everybody will give him a pass that he doesn't need to finish first in those states, but he needs to be in the hunt. If he comes in third in those states, or he even fourth, I think he's got a real problem.

CBSNews.com: You've been a early critic of President Bush. What do you think has been his biggest mistake as far as the party's political positioning has been? Has it been Iraq? Or has it been this more general sense that he hasn't done enough to broaden the coalition?

Tony Fabrizio: I think that at the end of the day they spent a lot of time focused on tactics and not strategy, not the big picture. Look, most Republicans agree with the president on the war. Three quarters of them still agree on the war.

But the truth of the matter is, these guys' whole approach to politics was subtraction not addition. In other words, instead of trying to broaden the base of the party they focused on what existed and how can we intensify what existed.

So that is why Bush in his reelection got 51 percent. And wouldn't have gotten 51 percent if they didn't focus on turnout.

It's kind of like when they make a diamond, they take the carbon and they squeeze it together so densely? That's what they were trying to do. And so, consequently, all we are left as a legacy is going to be the war.

Reagan expanded and changed the Republican Party. Bush can't say any of that.

CBSNews.com: My last question is, how do you assess the Democratic primary race?

Tony Fabrizio: You know, I am so gun-shy about the Clintons, having worked against them in '96 on the Dole campaign. I think Obama is formidable. And I think he is formidable primarily because of the hidden strength of black voters in the South.

But I think that to underestimate the Clintons is to be foolish. I think the thing that most people don't understand is that there is no bridge too far for these people to win that nomination or the presidency.

They are not necessarily nailed to one place ideologically. I mean, their tethers are loose and extremely flexible. And so, you know, she will have money, she has a pulpit like nobody else has.

One of her best features, I think from a political standpoint is, what are people gonna say about Hillary Clinton that they haven't already heard? Whereas there's a lot of water that has yet to go under the bridge about Obama.

By Brian Goldsmith