Obama touts economic gains to boost Democrats' chances in November

SANTA MONICA, Calif. -- President Obama is sold his economic pitch will win on Election Day. The American public is not. Over the next 27 days, either the president or the public is going to get the message.

It's a risky midterm campaign strategy, but the White House is betting that Mr. Obama's ownership of the economic recovery and populist proposals for gender pay equity and a higher minimum wage will galvanize his core supporters and persuade those independents who are still on the fence to help Democrats retain narrow control of the Senate in November.

The latest CBS News Battleground tracker has Republicans favored to take control of the Senate with 51 seats, although Republicans who were favored to win in some states have had a tough time cementing their lead.

Addressing young entrepreneurs Thursday at a startup center in California, Mr. Obama highlighted his economic record for the third time in eight days.

"A lot of you entered into the workforce during the worst financial crisis and then the worst recession since the Great Depression," he told the gathering of mostly millennials, those born after 1980. "You are coming out of this recession with the best educated, most diverse, most digitally fluent generation in American history."

While noting that he's not on the ballot in this election, Mr. Obama has become fond of saying that his policies will be. The line can cause complications for the many Democrats fighting tough re-election battles in red states who are trying to fend off a link between themselves and the unpopular president.

For Democrats, the problem is not Mr. Obama's message; it's the pitchman. "The messenger is not the most popular guy on the planet right now," said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman.

Public opinion polls show substantial support for Mr. Obama's proposals to raise the minimum wage, seek pay equity for women and close corporate tax loopholes. But on the economic issues he's most associated with - the fitful recovery from the Great Recession and his health care law - the American public is not with him.

A CBS News poll from September put the president's approval rating at just 40 percent, similar to what former President George W. Bush had before the 2006 midterm elections that saw Democrats take back the House and Senate.

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A September AP-GfK poll found 40 percent approve and 58 percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, and that 41 percent approve and 58 percent disapprove of his handling of health care.

That said, Mr. Obama can point to several signs of economic recovery to back up his message. Unemployment has dropped from a high of 10 percent in 2009 to 5.9 percent last month. The economy grew last quarter at a better clip than many expected. The stock market has rallied to record highs. He inherited a federal deficit of more than a trillion dollars; the deficit has been cut by more than half to $486 billion.

But, to the frustration of the White House, that message hasn't gained much traction against a headwind of nearly stagnant wage growth.

"An awful lot of Americans, they read in the paper that the economy is growing, but they haven't seen their own paychecks advance, they haven't seen their old opportunities grow and they haven't seen their own children get good job offers," GOP pollster White Ayres said.

Ayres recently conducted a joint poll with Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg for NPR and discovered that in states with closely contested Senate races, both Republicans and Democratic voters were equally energized

"It's all about the independents in those states," he said. "The independents are going to be moved more than anything else by the reality of the economy they feel in their daily lives. At least at this point, far too few have felt a significant recovery."

That point is not lost on the White House.

"Even though the economy is growing, productivity is growing, wages and income have been flat," Mr. Obama said Thursday. "And so the gains in the economy, not just over the last six years but really over the last 20, have more and more been going to the top of the economic pyramid."

As a result, Obama and many Democrats are focusing on proposals to raise the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour, ensure that women receive equal pay, to overhaul the immigration laws and provide universal pre-school for children as an effort to create contrasts with Republicans who have opposed those efforts.

"The president does believe there is a clear choice for voters across the country between candidates who are supportive of policies that will benefit the middle class, and candidates who are supportive of policies that will benefit those at the top in the hopes that the benefits will trickle down to the middle class," White House spokesman Josh Earnest said.

On Thursday, Mr. Obama was aiming his pitch to young people born after 1980, an age group that helped him win the White House in 2008 and 2012 but has always dropped off in midterm election participation.

The president held a town hall at Cross Campus, a Santa Monica, California, hub for startup companies and entrepreneurs, where he highlighted policies that he says have benefitted the younger generation, like more affordable and accessible health care.

Thursday's speech is one of several White House efforts to draw the attention of demographic groups that are crucial components of the Democratic voting coalition, including women, African-Americans and Latinos. The president has been slow to hit the campaign trail for candidates in places he might drag them down, but is recording radio ads, robo-calls and digital advertising to aimed at turning out minorities and young voters.

But as he promotes the economy and his policies, Obama faces yet another disadvantage: Of the 10 closest Senate contests, seven are in states he lost in 2012.

As a result, he has been forced to make his case from a distance, as he did Thursday in California.

On Thursday evening, Mr. Obama will attend a reception to benefit the Democratic Party in Los Angeles. On Friday he attends a second reception to help the party in San Francisco.