Menendez Bullish On Senate Dems In 2010
Despite historical patterns, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) chairman Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) suggests Democrats will be able to build on their large Senate majority in 2010.
Without making specific predictions, Menendez speaking to reporters in Washington, D.C. Thursday, said Republicans are the ones who face long odds.
"Historically, it might be tempting to think 2010 will be tough year for Democrats," Menendez said in reference to the fact that the party of a president in his first term tends to lose seats in the midterm election. "But, the fear has got to be on the other side of the aisle."
Last month, National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) chairman Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) argued that because former President George W. Bush will not be in office and President Obama won't be on the ballot in 2010, there will be expanded opportunities for Republicans.
Menendez, however, said there are four primary reasons Republicans should be shaking in their boots.
"It's difficult to energize voters when your candidates are reluctant to run," the chairman said, noting that all four retirement announcements since the election have come from Republicans. Sens. Sam Brownback (R-KS), George Voinovich (R-Ohio), Kit Bond (R-MO) and Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) have all announced they will not run for re-election in 2010.
Secondly, Martinez argued, each of the 15 Democrats up for re-election are favored to win, and the five seats filled since the election (in Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, New Hampshire and New York) are also looking good for his party.
Third, five of the 17 Republican seats up in 2010 are open and Obama won three of those five states in 2008 (Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio). In a fourth state, traditionally Republican Kansas, Obama and McCain split the electoral votes with Obama picking up one.
Menendez also argues that ultimately the Republican message will not resonate with voters.
"Republicans haven't changed their brand...the Bush brand," Menendez said.
"The saddest thing and the most dangerous thing for them is that they are betting against President Obama and betting against the economic recovery we are trying to create. In essence, they are betting against the nation doing better... I think that is a wrong and dangerous propostion for the Republicans ... a recipe for failure," Menendez said.
Breaking it down state by state, Menendez pointed out:
In Colorado, Illinois and New York: NRSC Chairman Cornyn called these seats "opportunities" mainly because all three Democrats are untested statewide. Regarding Sen. Roland Burris, D-Ill., who took President Obama's vacant seat, Menendez says there is "no deadline for Burris to decide" whether he will run in 2010. Menendez is bullish about Sens. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) even though neither has won statewide office. Menendez said of all three that he is "very confident they'll be in a good position to run and win."
In North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Kentucky: There will be "strong Democratic challenges" in these states, where Menendez feels Republican incumbents are vulnerable. In the cases of North Carolina and Pennsylvania, two states that President Obama won in 2008, Menendez says that demographics and favorable to Democrats and notes that the two incumbent senators, Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), have both been involved in tight elections in the past. Sen. David Vitter, R-La., has his own problems, having been caught up in a prostitution scandal in 2007, and Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., is facing questions about his desire for the job and to date has raised very little money for re-election.
In Missouri and Florida: Menendez notes that big Republican names have said they will not run in 2010: former governor Jeb Bush in Florida and former Senator Jim Talent in Missouri. However, a new poll suggests the Democrats could have a hard time in the Sunshine State if popular Gov. Charlie Crist, R-Fla., decides to run for Senate.