Is John McCain Doomed To Lose To Barack Obama?

Of course, it's not over 'til it's over, but is this a sign it might be nearly over? Check this Associated Press filing from today:

"Obama hammered McCain's economic record during a rally in Michigan, a state struggling with the country's highest unemployment rate. The Illinois senator's speech came several hours before knowledgeable Republican officials said McCain's campaign has given up trying to win Michigan and is shifting resources from there to other states."

Then there's electoral-vote.com's calculation that shows Obama at 338 in the Electoral College and McCain at 185. I've seen Obama slightly above 300 on electoral-vote.com before. But just a week or two ago, McCain was ahead in Electoral College votes, and I've not seen the tally this far skewed in Obama's favor before.

What could be McCain's game-changer during the next four weeks? It's not likely to be tonight's vice presidential debate, given the contestants. A sudden turnaround in the economy? Also dubious, given that Goldman Sachs is forecasting no growth this quarter or in the first quarter of '09. A slam-dunk victory in one of the next two presidential debates? Again, less likely than the boost he might have gotten had he bested Obama in the first debate. Palin dropping off the ticket? Boy, would he anger the conservative base if he took that turn in the road. An October surprise? By my calculations, it would take nothing short of Russia invading yet another former satellite nation or an unimaginable terrorist strike. Neither of those things is anything anyone should hope for.

By Bonnie Erbe