Has Tide Turned For GOP Support Of War?

Republican support for the Iraq war is slipping by the day.

After four years of combat and more than 3,560 U.S. deaths, two Republican senators previously reluctant to challenge President Bush on the war announced they could no longer support the deployment of 157,000 troops and asked the president to begin bringing them home.

"We must not abandon our mission, but we must begin a transition where the Iraqi government and its neighbors play a larger role in stabilizing Iraq," Sen. George Voinovich, an Ohio Republican, wrote in a letter to Mr. Bush.

Voinovich, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, released his letter Tuesday — one day after Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana, the panel's top Republican, said in a floor speech that Mr. Bush's strategy was not working.

"The longer we delay the planning for a redeployment, the less likely it is to be successful," said Lugar, who plans to meet later this week with Stephen Hadley, Mr. Bush's national security adviser.

On Wednesday, Lugar told NBC News that much of Iraq was ungovernable and that he believes the troop buildup will not change the situation. In response, White House Press Secretary Tony Snow said, "It's important to let the surge work."

Lugar and Voinovich are not the first Republican members to call for U.S. troops to leave Iraq. Sens. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Olympia Snowe of Maine and Gordon Smith of Oregon made similar remarks earlier this year. But their public break is significant because it raises the possibility that Senate Democrats could muster the 60 votes needed to pass legislation that would call for Mr. Bush to bring troops home.

"In many ways it is the moderate Republicans who may provide the grist and the number of votes needed to create veto-proof legislation mandating a troop reduction," said Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Their remarks also are an early warning shot to a lame duck president that Republican support for the war is thinning. The administration is not expected until September to say whether a recent troop buildup in Iraq is working.

"Everyone should take note, especially the administration," said Snowe, noting Lugar's senior position within the Republican Party. "It certainly indicates the tide is turning."

CBS News chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer said "the end is near" for Republican support on Capitol Hill.

Schieffer said a GOP senator told him that even Republican senators who will support the president publicly are not enthusiastic about the surge strategy.

Lugar told reporters Tuesday that he does not expect the fall assessment to be conclusive and would only fuel sentiment among lawmakers that Congress should intervene with legislation to end the war.

"The president has an opportunity now to bring about a bipartisan foreign policy," Lugar said. "I don't think he'll have that option very long."

Republican support for the war has declined steadily since last year's elections, mirroring public poll numbers. In an AP-Ipsos poll earlier this month, 28 percent said they were satisfied with President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, down 5 percentage points in a month.

Earlier this year, Voinovich and Lugar said they doubted the troop buildup in Iraq would work. But they declined to back a resolution expressing opposition to the troop increase because they said it would have no practical effect. The two senators also refused Democratic proposals to set a timetable for troop withdrawals.

Other Republicans, including Sens. Norm Coleman of Minnesota and Susan Collins of Maine, expressed similar concerns about Iraq but recently have said they will wait until the September assessment before calling for a change in course, including possible troop withdrawals.

Voinovich and Lugar said they still would not support a timetable for troop withdrawals and are unlikely to switch their vote. But softer alternative proposals are in the works that could possibly attract their support.

After the Fourth of July recess, "you'll be hearing a number of statements from other (Republican) colleagues," predicted Sen. John Warner of Virginia, a longtime skeptic of the war strategy.

Warner spokesman John Ullyot said the senator is drafting a legislative proposal on the war, but declined to discuss the details. The measure would likely be offered as an amendment to the 2008 defense authorization bill on the floor next month.

In the meantime, Democrats say they will try again to set an end date on the war and cut off funding for combat.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada called Lugar's speech "brilliant" and "courageous" and said it would later be noted in the history books as a turning point in the war.

"But that will depend on whether more Republicans take the stand that Sen. Lugar took," Reid added.

Also on Tuesday, the Senate Armed Services Committee voted in favor of confirming Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute as Mr. Bush's personal adviser on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Pete Geren as Army secretary. A full Senate vote on the nominations has not been scheduled.