(CBS News) -- Below is a transcript from the February 1, 2015 edition of Face the Nation. Guests included: Sen. Lindsey Graham, Sen. Dick Durbin, former Secretary of State James Baker, Holly Williams, Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh, James Brown, Peggy Noonan, Phil Musser, Stephanie Cutter, John Dickerson, Mark Leibovich and Joseph Califano.
NORAH O'DONNELL, HOST: I'm Norah O'Donnell.
And today on FACE THE NATION: The terror group ISIS strikes again, and a big development in campaign 2016 leaves Republicans dialing for dollars.
Japanese captive Kenji Goto appears to be the latest victim of ISIS. We will have a report from Northern Iraq.
And as Mitt Romney bows out of a third presidential run, South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham says he may be in. We will talk to him about that and the war on terror.
Then we will hear from the number two Democrat in the Senate, Richard Durbin and former Secretary of State James Baker.
We will also have preview of today's Super Bowl matchup between the Patriots and the Seahawks. Plus, as NFL commissioner Roger Goodell admits:
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROGER GOODELL, NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE COMMISSIONER: It has been a tough year.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'DONNELL: We will get analysis from James Brown, anchor of CBS Sports' "NFL TODAY."
And the head of the Centers for Disease Control, Dr. Tom Frieden, will be along for update on the now widespread outbreak of measles.
Bob Schieffer talks to former LBJ adviser Joe Califano about his book, "The Triumph and Tragedy of Lyndon Johnson."
Finally, we will have analysis from an all-star political panel, because this is FACE THE NATION.
Good morning. Bob Schieffer is off today.
We begin this morning with the grim news of another execution from the terror group ISIS.
CBS News correspondent Holly Williams is in Kirkuk, Iraq, this morning.
HOLLY WILLIAMS, CBS NEWS CORRESPONDENT: The video released by ISIS does appear to show the beheading of Kenji Goto, a Japanese journalist captured by the extremists late last year. That's the assessment of the Japanese government.
ISIS had offered to release Goto in return for a failed female suicide bomber, who is on death row in Jordan. Now, the Jordanian government said it would release the woman, Sajida al-Rishawi, but only in exchange for one of its own citizens, a pilot who crashed in ISIS territory during a bombing raid back in December.
In the end, however, there was no prisoner swap, Kenji Goto is dead, and the fate of the Jordanian pilot is unknown. In the Syrian city of Kobani, though, ISIS was finally forced to retreat last week after more than 700 U.S.-led airstrikes and four months of brutal street fighting against Kurdish forces.
The battle for Kobani was a very public test of whether airstrikes would be effective against the militants. But here in the oil-rich Iraqi city of Kirkuk on Friday, ISIS launched a surprise offensive, killing a local commander and four of his men. The extremists were later beaten back, but their confidence in attacking a well-defended place like Kirkuk suggest ISIS still a very long way from defeat.
O'DONNELL: Joining me now by telephone from outside Amman, Jordan, is the foreign minister, Nasser Judeh.
Mr. Foreign Minister, thank you for joining us.
NASSER JUDEH, JORDANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: Thank you, Norah. O'DONNELL: Let me ask you, do you know if your pilot that is being held by ISIS is still alive?
JUDEH: Well, actually we don't.
We have been asking publicly for proof of life and so far we have received none.
O'DONNELL: Are the Jordanians still willing to swap Sajida al- Rishawi -- this is the failed female suicide bomber -- even though ISIS has now executed this other Japanese journalist?
JUDEH: Well, there have been demands, certainly demands by our side as well, as you mentioned before and as I mentioned, for proof of life. We have said publicly that, if we do get proof of life -- and this is before the tragic murder, cold-blooded murder of the Japanese journalist, Kenji, we have said that if there is proof of life and if our pilot is released, we are willing to release this woman.
But, like I said, so far, we have seen no proof of life which we have been asking for.
O'DONNELL: The foreign minister also told us that King Abdullah of Jordan will be traveling to Washington to meet with President Obama.
For more now on ISIS and a look at the 2016 presidential politics, we're joined by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham from Clemson, South Carolina.
Senator, thank you for joining us. SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R), SOUTH CAROLINA: Thank you.
O'DONNELL: This is now the seventh public beheading of either a journalist or aide worker by ISIS. When is this going to stop?
GRAHAM: When they're degraded and destroyed.
And the president has the right goal to degrade and destroy ISIL, he but doesn't have the right strategy. An aerial campaign will not destroy them. You're going to need boots on the ground not only in Iraq, but Syria. And there's got to be some regional force formed with an American component, somewhere around 10,000, I think, American soldiers to align with the Arab armies in the region and go in to Syria and take back territory from ISIL. That is what will make it stop.
O'DONNELL: The Pentagon admitted just last week that ISIS still holds about 20,000 square miles in Syria and Iraq.
O'DONNELL: That's roughly twice the size of Massachusetts. There have been 2,000 airstrikes by American and coalition forces. There were just 34 this weekend. Are these airstrikes effective at all?
GRAHAM: They won't destroy ISIL. They do help in some regard.
How do you dislodge ISIL from Syria? Iraq, you hope you can get the Kurds and the Iraqi security forces and the Anbar Sunni tribes to work together to defeat them in Western Anbar take back Mosul.
But Syria is very complicated. You are going to need a regional force, Saudi, Turkey, the entire region, putting together an army with American people embedded, special forces, intel folks, forward air controllers to go in on the ground and not only dislodge them from Syria, but hold the territory. And you can't do that until you deal with Assad.
O'DONNELL: I think one of the most alarming things that I have read is that of these foreign fighters involved in Syria and Iraq, that some 4,000 of them have Western passports, which means they could travel to the United States without a visa.
O'DONNELL: Are we watching them?
GRAHAM: We are.
But we're being overwhelmed. Quite frankly, Syria and Iraq combined are the best platforms to launch an attack on United States I have seen since 9/11. So, every day that goes by, we have got more terrorist organizations with more capability to strike the homeland than any time since 9/11. You have got AQAP in Yemen. But ISIL's presence in Syria and Iraq, they're very rich. Foreign fighters flow with passports that can penetrate the United States and our Western allies. So, you will see a Paris on steroids here pretty soon if you don't disrupt this organization and take the fight to them on the ground.
And, again, you cannot successfully defeat ISIL on the ground in Syria with the Free Syrian Army and regional coalition of Arab nations until you deal with Assad, because he will kill anybody that comes in there that tries to defeat ISIL.
O'DONNELL: Let's turn now to politics, Senator Graham, because you announced this week that you are considering a run for president.
But as you point out yourself, you voted for both of President Obama's nominees for the Supreme Court. Your critics call you Lindsey Grahamnesty for your support of immigration reform.
O'DONNELL: You believe in climate change.
Can you get elected in a Republican primary? Do you even have a chance?
GRAHAM: Well, I won in South Carolina. It's a pretty red state.
I'm for immigration reform, starting with securing your border. All Republicans agree with that, more legal immigration. Paying illegal immigrants under the table is a real threat to the middle- class wage growth. That's one of the reasons we need to fix immigration.
But my view on immigration is shared by 70 percent of the American people. When it comes to Supreme Court justices, if I get to be president, I would nominate Trey Gowdy. And I would expect Democrats to vote for him because he's a qualified person. I thought Sotomayor and Kagan, while I would not have chosen them, were very qualified candidates to be picked by a Democratic president.
So, I'm very comfortable that I'm in the mainstream of conservatism. I have done very well in a red state. And when it comes to national security and understanding the threats our nation faces, I believe I'm the best qualified of anybody on our side of the aisle to offer an alternative to a failed foreign policy of Barack Obama.
My organization is called Security Through Strength. We will never have peace with radical Islam, but we can have security.
O'DONNELL: All right, Senator Lindsey Graham, we will be watching. Good luck with your run. Thank you so much for joining us.
GRAHAM: Thank you. O'DONNELL: Joining us now is James Baker. He was chief of staff to President Reagan and President George H.W. Bush. He also served as Bush's secretary of state.
Mr. Secretary, it's good to have you here.
JAMES BAKER, FORMER U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: Thank you, Norah. It's nice to be here.
O'DONNELL: Since we're on the subject of presidential politics, and you know plenty about that, because you helped both Bushes become president of the United States, will you help Jeb Bush, and what do you think of his running for president?
BAKER: Well, I will certainly help him if he wants me to, obviously.
And I think it's terrific that he's going to get out there and run. He's an extraordinarily qualified person to be president. He would make an extremely good president. So, I'm excited about the fact that it looks more and more like he's actually going to do it.
O'DONNELL: In your mind, is Jeb Bush the front-runner?
BAKER: I think he is now, yes, with Romney's pulling out of the race.
But I will tell you that, based on my experience, being the front-runner is not necessarily always the best thing in presidential primary contests, because if you don't win big enough, then the press will say, ooh-ooh, you didn't do well enough.
But Jeb's got solid credentials. He knows politics. He was elected governor of Florida at least two times. He will be a very good candidate and I expect him to get the Republican nomination.
O'DONNELL: You have been involved in a Bush vs. Clinton campaign before.
BAKER: That's right.
O'DONNELL: We may have another Bush vs. Clinton campaign.
BAKER: That's right.
O'DONNELL: There's plenty of time for that. Do you think that Jeb Bush could beat Hillary Clinton?
BAKER: Yes. Of course I do.
I think it's going to be a Republican year. It should be a Republican year. You know, there have only been two occasions in which one party has held the White House for 12 years, going all the way back, Martin Van Buren back in the 1800s and George H.W. Bush, Jeb's father, in 1988, I guess it was. It's hard to hold White House for 12 years in a row. People want -- they want to see change. There's been a lot of problems that have accrued during this administration. She was secretary of state for four years in the administration. You look at the foreign policy now around the world, and there's many, many problems.
And so I think we have got an excellent opportunity. I realize that she's way out in front on the Democratic side for that nomination, but she's vulnerable. She can be beaten.
O'DONNELL: I want to get your take on some foreign policy matters that are out that -- first ISIS, because now we have seen this seventh public beheading on television, these videos
O'DONNELL: You heard what I said to Senator Graham. We're doing these airstrikes and yet ISIS appears to grow in strength.
Let me tell you, I agree with practically everything that Senator Graham said, in fact, I think probably everything he said.
O'DONNELL: But you don't think Americans boots?
BAKER: No American boots on the ground, in my view.
Now, that doesn't mean you can't have special ops forces and air controllers and that sort of thing to help with the air war. But we are going to have to find a way to put some boots on the ground. We might be able to find that in Iraq with the Iraqi army if we get them trained up. So far, it doesn't look very promising.
But, as the senator pointed out, Syria is an entirely different matter. You can't win this war just from the air. You can't eject ISIS, you can't destroy ISIS, eject them from territory just from the air.
My idea would be to go to the Turks, 60-year allies of the United States, members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. They have a good army. It's an army that will fight. They want to take down Assad. President Obama has said Assad must go. They want to destroy ISIS. We want to destroy ISIS.
There's a conversion of interests here. Why don't we get together and we say, look, we will supply the air, the logistics and the intelligence, you put the boots on the ground, and go in there and do the job? And, in addition, get some of our Arab allies in the region to put boots on the ground as well, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan and the others.
O'DONNELL: Want to get your take also on Israel, the news that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ambassador arranged for Netanyahu to address the U.S. Congress to Speaker Boehner and went around the White House. Is that a significant breach of protocol?
Yes, it is.
O'DONNELL: How significant is it?
BAKER: Well, I don't -- I can't remember an incident in which it's been done.
Now, let me say this. The speaker of the House has every right in the world to invite whoever he wants to speak to the House. It's a co-equal branch of government. But it's best done, our foreign policy is best conducted when there's at least cooperation between the legislative and the executive branches.
The executive -- I'm a creature of the executive branch. The executive branch of government really has the primary power and responsibility and authority to conduct the nation's foreign policy. It's not in the Congress. It's in the executive branch. So, our foreign policy benefits when there's cooperation, and so does our -- the problem -- the issue of U.S.-Israeli relations.
O'DONNELL: Should they cancel the speech? Do you think it will backfire on Netanyahu?
BAKER: I think it might very well.
And I would point you to what happened back there when we were in office 25 years ago, when Prime Minister Shamir was having trouble managing the U.S. relationship -- U.S.-Israel relationship.
Nothing is more important to the citizens of Israel than to know that their leadership is properly managing the relationship with their most important ally.
O'DONNELL: You think this may damage Netanyahu's chances of reelection?
BAKER: Well, I don't know whether it will or not. But I think it has the potential to backfire, just as it backfired on Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir back there in 1990 or 1991, when he was challenged by Yitzhak Rabin, and Rabin won, but primarily because Shamir was not seen to be able to manage the relationship with the United States properly.
O'DONNELL: There's so much to talk to you about and so little time. But I do want to get your take on Saudi Arabia, because you were part of this historic delegation that went to the kingdom to meet the new king, King Salman.
So many secretaries of state, former national security advisers there. We now have one-quarter of the planet is Muslim.
O'DONNELL: Sixty-two percent of them are under the age of 30.
O'DONNELL: What role must Saudi Arabia and this new king play?
BAKER: Well, Saudi Arabia -- the king of Saudi Arabia is the custodian of the two holy mosques. They occupy a special role in Islam.
Saudi Arabia today happens to be an island of stability. If you looked at that part of the world, countries on all sides of them are failed states now, Iraq, Syria, Yemen. Bahrain has got problems. Look at Libya. What we did in Libya was a terrible mistake. And it's now totally -- so, we're going to be -- we need the Saudis.
They have been historically a very fine ally of the United States. Are there things that they do that we disagree with? You bet your life. But they're a very good ally. And they're going to be critical in dealing with the problem you just pointed out.
O'DONNELL: Secretary Baker, always good to have you here.
BAKER: Thank you, Norah.
O'DONNELL: Thank you so much.
We want to go now to a top Democrat, Senator Richard Durbin, who joins us from Springfield, Illinois.
Senator, good to see you. Thank you so much for joining us.
SEN. RICHARD DURBIN (D), ILLINOIS: Thanks, Norah.
O'DONNELL: I want to ask you about that same issue about Israel. Should Netanyahu cancel his planned speech to Congress next month?
DURBIN: I don't think this political grandstanding by the speaker and Mr. Netanyahu are in the best interests of Israel.
We have a strong relationship, a strong alliance with Israel. For the speaker to decide to go it alone and to invite Prime Minister Netanyahu without consulting with the White House was a mistake.
O'DONNELL: As you know, President Obama will not meet with the prime minister while he's here. What about Democrats in Congress? Will they attend the speech?
DURBIN: Well, we're troubled by it.
I don't want to show any weakness in terms of our commitment to Israel. But some of my closest friends in the United States who support Israel have described this Boehner strategy as a disaster. I hope we can find a way to stabilize the situation quickly and take the politics out of it. O'DONNELL: Your take also on ISIS this morning and the policy there. Airstrikes, we have had 2,000 of them and, as you heard Secretary Baker say, you can't win a war with airstrikes alone.
What is the strategy? What is the strategy, other than to...
DURBIN: Two things I want to say.
First, the president is on the right track. Bring together an Arab and Muslim coalition that wants to bring stability to the Middle East, and the United States can support it. I disagree with my friend Lindsey Graham about an invasionary force of 10,000 Americans.
To plunge them into the chaos and carnage of Syria at this point would be a serious mistake, in my view. Let's work to build and support this coalition of indigenous efforts in the region to bring stability. And, secondly, this program has been consumed by the issue of terrorism. Remember, the House Republicans have refused to properly fund the Department of Homeland Security, our lead agency in protecting America against terrorism.
This week, we will continue this debate in the Senate. I'm urging Senator McConnell to pass a clean appropriations bill. Let us properly and quickly fund the premier agency to keep America safe.
O'DONNELL: Finally, Senator, I want to ask you about your party's future. We have also been talking about presidential politics. There's a new poll out this morning from the state of Iowa that shows your former colleague in the Senate Hillary Clinton way, way out in front, 40 points ahead of the nearest challenger.
Do you think a coronation is good for your party?
DURBIN: Secretary Clinton is carefully constructing her campaign.
I am impressed by the people involved in it from top to bottom. She's going to avoid some mistakes of the past. And she's brought together the best and brightest in our party. I think we will be unified, if she announces her candidacy and does soon, behind that candidacy. But we have an uphill battle.
Secretary Baker is right. We can never take an election for granted. But if the economy continues to grow and stabilize, as it has under President Obama, we'll be in a strong position to elect Secretary Clinton.
O'DONNELL: Senator Durbin, good to see you. Thank you for joining us this morning.
DURBIN: Thank you, Norah.
O'DONNELL: And we will be back in just one minute.
O'DONNELL: For some, there's only one story today, and that's the Super Bowl.
This evening, the Seattle Seahawks take on the New England Patriots in Phoenix. And although security is heavy outside the stadium, inside, all eyes will be on the field and those footballs.
But has Deflategate distracted from the more serious issues plaguing the NFL?
Joining us now is the host of "NFL TODAY," James Brown.
So good to see you. You excited about the Super Bowl?
JAMES BROWN, CBS NEWS SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: The peripatetic Norah O'Donnell.
BROWN: Good to see you as well too.
I am, because it's an excellent match up of the two best teams in the league. They have earned their way there. I'm looking forward to it.
O'DONNELL: Look, one of the things I'm interested, too, not only these are great, great teams, but great, great quarterbacks. And this is what really interests me.
Tom Brady, right, who, by the way, was in the sixth round draft pick, right, 199th when he was picked by the Patriots, will be the first quarterback ever to star in the Super Bowl six times. And if the Patriots win, it will be Brady's fourth Super Bowl win. That puts him up there with Joe Montana, right, and with Terry Bradshaw. That's huge.
BROWN: He will go down as the greatest sixth round draft choice, a quarterback, in NFL history. The guy has been phenomenal.
And same -- look, for Russell Wilson, he would be the first quarterback to win two Super Bowls while only having played three seasons in the NFL. This is an incredible match up.
BROWN: Great matchup at the marquee spot.
And, Norah, you and I have talked about sports so often on "CBS THIS MORNING." Russell Wilson to me is the kind of quarterback, the kind of player that you like giving visibility too, a man of character and integrity, smart and defy the odds because they always talk about his diminutive stature. The kid is smart and gets it done.
O'DONNELL: With all the hype and excitement about a Super Bowl, too, even Roger Goodell this week announced, said, admitted it's been a really tough year, it's been a really tough year.
BROWN: No question, no question. O'DONNELL: The last couple of week have been sort of dominated by Deflategate. And don't you think though that, while an important issue, that this discussion about the PSI and the weight of a football is really a distraction from some really big issues facing the NFL, not only concussions, violence, a murder trial that is going on, and the issue of domestic violence?
BROWN: And, Norah, you and I started this season off "Thursday Night Football" dealing with that issue. You guys are so wonderful in blending the synergies of CBS News with CBS Sports as well.
And it's a shame that it's been dominated from start to finish with topics other than what's taking place on the football field. However, at least I'm encouraged that the league in general, while still questionable on a number of fronts, they haven't run away from these issues. They have embraced them.
And I'm hoping that what I see as a substantive reworking of attitudes and rules and policies in place will trickle down to society at large, because domestic violence, something that I'm very keen on, Norah, in terms of awareness and prevention, is not being taken as seriously in society, up until this year, as it should have been.
And I think the league has taken a lead role in that regard.
O'DONNELL: And we know that...
BROWN: Albeit knee-jerk reaction.
O'DONNELL: Yes. And we know tonight that the NFL is going to have a commercial dealing with this, this real issue of domestic violence.
Is there a problem within the NFL, or do you think this is part of what happens in a year? How tough has it been for Goodell?
BROWN: It's been a tough year for him. There's no question about it.
And the NFL is a microcosm, although on a major stage, and you hear them talk so often about the integrity of the shield, and it's a privilege to play the game, and not a responsibility, if you will, that everybody is granted.
Again, I'm at least pleased, from my humble perspective, to see that they have taken some very serious steps in terms of addressing these issues, Norah, no question about it.
O'DONNELL: Can you make a final pick?
BROWN: You know what, I have been trained by John Madden, the iconic coach and broadcaster. Until the defending champion is dethroned, they are the ones to knock off. And Seattle right now still is. But Bill Belichick always comes up with something you never expected.
O'DONNELL: All right. J.B., great to have you here on Sunday morning. We will be watching with you tonight.
BROWN: Good to see you too, Norah. OK..
O'DONNELL: And we will be right back.
O'DONNELL: Stay with us for a lot more FACE THE NATION, including an update on the now widespread outbreak of measles.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) O'DONNELL: Some of our stations are leaving us now. Sorry. But for most of you, we will be right back with the head of the Centers for Disease Control, our political panel, and Bob Schieffer's interview with former LBJ aide Joe Califano.
O'DONNELL: Welcome back to FACE THE NATION. I'm Norah O'Donnell.
Another big story that's causing concern across the country is the measles outbreak. According to the Centers for Disease Control as of today there are at least 102 reported cases of measles in 14 states.
Dr. Tom Frieden is the head of the CDC; he joins us from Atlanta.
Doctor, good to see you.
Are the numbers of measles cases going up?
DR. THOMAS FRIEDEN, DIRECTOR, CDC: We are likely to see more cases, that are preventable. They're preventable by vaccine and for places that haven't vaccinated there's aggressive public health action to identify contacts, to isolate sick people, to quarantine people who have been exposed. But the best way to prevent measles is with vaccination.
O'DONNELL: We learned just this week that a New York college student boarded an Amtrak train in Penn Station on his way back to school, possibly exposing hundreds of people to measles.
What do we know about that case?
FRIEDEN: In terms of when and where that individual was sick our greatest concern is for the college itself, which may have many kids who haven't been vaccinated.
What we've seen is that as over last few years, a small but growing number of people have not been vaccinated, that number is building up among young adults and adults in society. And that makes us vulnerable. We have to make sure that measles doesn't get a foothold in the U.S. It's been actually eliminated from this country for 15 years; all of our cases result ultimately from individuals who have traveled and brought it back here. We have to stop it from getting a foothold here.
O'DONNELL: Well, that's right. The CDC had declared in the year 2000 that measles had been eliminated.
But you look at the graph you have more and more cases being reported, especially in the last several years, most of those cases are in individuals who have not been vaccinated.
What we see is growing trend of parents who are getting what's called personal belief exemption.
Do we need to reconsider those types of exemptions?
FRIEDEN: Well, the places around the country that really require that that personal belief be something that's deeply held and longstanding have much higher vaccination rate.
But overall we have a 92 percent vaccination rate in this country and even among those parents whose kids have not been vaccinated, most of them don't have that deeply held concern. They just may not recognize that measles is still with us, that it's serious and that not getting your kid vaccinated is not only a risk for you own kid but puts other vulnerable kids in your community at risk.
O'DONNELL: But, Doctor, I was fascinated to see some of the numbers. This is according to the CDC, your own organization.
California, which is now the epicenter of this growing measles outbreak because it started in Disneyland, there last year almost 8 percent of kindergartners, 41,000 children failed to get required immunizations against MILLIMETER -- measles, mumps and rubella. Look at the state of Oregon, that number is 6.8 percent; in Pennsylvania it's nearly 15 percent of kindergartners, 22,700 kindergartners do not have these vaccinations.
What is going on?
FRIEDEN: We are very concerned by the growing number of people who are susceptible to measles and to the possibility that we could have a large outbreak in this country as a result.
Parents are concerned; they want their kids to be safe and healthy. The science is clear. Study after study has shown that there are no serious long-term adverse consequences for measles.
Of course, it can hurt your arm; one in six kids can have a fever 10 days after, but the vaccine is safe and effective and for those parents who may think that measles is gone, it's still here. And it can be quite serious. O'DONNELL: But you look at states like Mississippi and West Virginia. Those two states have mandatory vaccination rules, they do not allow these exemptions and they have almost 100 percent vaccination rates.
Do we need to think about on other states making vaccinations absolutely mandatory?
FRIEDEN: We've worked community by community, and it's a decision for the school board, for the community; last year we had a large outbreak in an Amish community.
We worked closely with the community, we got vaccination done, we increased use of isolation and quarantine and the outbreak stopped. We can control it.
The future is within our control. We vaccinate well, we increase those vaccination rates, we can stop measles just as we stopped it before.
O'DONNELL: Dr. Tom Frieden, good to see you. Thank you for joining us.
FRIEDEN: Great to see you. Thank you.
O'DONNELL: And we'll be right back with our political panel.
O'DONNELL: We're back with our political panel: Peggy Noonan is a columnist for "The Wall Street Journal" and she's also a CBS news contributor. We're also joined by CBS political director, John Dickerson, and mark Leibovich of "The New York Times Magazine."
Plus we're joined by Democratic strategist and CNN contributor Stephanie Cutter and Republican strategist Phil Musser.
Great to have all of you here. Let's start with some of the news this morning out of Iowa. A poll, because it's never too early to poll how Republicans are doing all the candidates and what we find and what was arguably a small sample size that Wisconsin governor Scott Walker is at the top of the list of those in Iowa.
And look, the establishment candidate, Jeb Bush, is near the bottom of that list or at least fifth in that list.
John, what does this say what is happening in Iowa?
JOHN DICKERSON, CBS NEWS POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: I think it says a couple of things.
First of all, as you pointed out, we all need to recognize the caucus is a year away; you'll see people rise and fall. Scott Walker had a good performance in Iowa at the last weekend at the Steve King Cattle Call. He did well. That shows up in the polls. We saw this in 2012 when Michelle Bachmann had her moment; Herman Cain. It seemed every week, everybody had another moment.
What Scott Walker has that those other candidates didn't have is he has a little bit of staying power. He has a quick elevator pitch, he can talk about being elected three times in a purple state and also that he took on the unions and he survived.
That is what is -- you have slow burn candidates and fast burn candidates. You want to be a slow burn candidate, you want to be there at the end. What keeps him from being a fast burnout candidate is this record he's got. So that's good for him.
As far as the establishment candidates, they've got a long road in Iowa to convince people and to work on voters so they don't need to be nervous about being fifth in the polls right now. But it does mean they have work to do.
O'DONNELL: Phil, this is your world; you live in Republican politics.
Is it surprising to see Jeb in fifth, though, behind even Ben Carson?
PHILIP MUSSER, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, I don't know that he was in fifth or where he was, but I would say that the bunching between the top performer at about 15 percent and 9 percent is largely statistically irrelevant.
I think what it does tell us about the Republican Party is that next in line syndrome that we've had in our party for the last four or five cycles is dead and gone. This is going to be a wide open race.
I actually think the interesting consequence of this is to show you that, in large part, Iowa and New Hampshire may ultimately be less relevant to the determination of the ultimate nominee this go-around; the conventional wisdom is --
MUSSER: -- well, the conventional wisdom is you need to have a top three finish in Iowa and New Hampshire in order to win the Republican nomination. I think that is old conventional wisdom. I think if you look forward to 2016 the reality is that if you come in the top five you have a super PAC, the chance that you could be standing with three or four candidates post-Florida, all of whom are plausible for the nomination, is real.
O'DONNELL: And forgive me, because I looked at this briefly, but they bunched a lot of the other primaries together now. So there will be more --
MUSSER: They have. The party has shortened the process both with respect to debates and actually with respect to the contest. So you have a regional series of contests that are shaping up and what that means is you have to plan differently for your presidential campaign in 2016 than you might have before.
The slingshot strategy of Iowa I think is over.
O'DONNELL: It's dead?
O'DONNELL: That's interesting.
Peggy, I think we were all waiting on pins and needles on Friday to see what Mitt Romney was actually going to do. John Dickerson was sending us notes, "I'm hearing from one source he's staying in. I'm hearing from one source he's getting out." But --
DICKERSON: It was like a Hokey Pokey (INAUDIBLE) --
DICKERSON: -- texts going around --
O'DONNELL: There were a lot of texts going around about what Mitt Romney was going to do. He spoke to his supporters -- I just want to play a clip and let our viewers hear exactly what Romney told his supporters. Let's listen.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
MITT ROMNEY, FORMER GOVERNOR OF MASSACHUSETTS: I believe that one of our next generation of Republican leaders, one who may not be as well-known as I am today, one who has not yet taken their message across the country, one who is just getting started, may well emerge as being better able to defeat the Democrat nominee.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
O'DONNELL: Peggy, there was something (INAUDIBLE) looked at that and said, is that a dig at Jeb Bush, is he talking about someone, a fresh face, someone other than Bush?
NOONAN: It could be interpreted that way. I'll tell you one thing about that statement that I found odd, I don't know if the rest of you did, is that this was Mr. Romney speaking to friends and supporters and bundlers and fundraisers. They are people who know him. And yet he didn't just have a phone call in which he told them his decision, he read from a script. You could tell from the way it sounded. And a friend of mine tells me, who had the script in advance, he didn't deviate a word.
To me it sounded a little bit like a public address system in in an empty parking lot saying snow is coming. Snow is coming.
O'DONNELL: That reminds me, Peggy, of when Romney told a group of supporters or big billionaire funders that he might get in, you said first big mistake that he would go back and announce in front of bunch of millionaires and billionaires.
NOONAN: Yeah, telling your friends.
So there was -- so, the ending I think arguably was a little bit clunky.
I'll tell what you interests me about the Republicans this year, apart from what you say, Bill, a year ago we were all thinking you know there's going to be six or eight serious candidates among the Republicans. There could be 25 candidates among the Republicans. You're going to have a row at the debates of guys in ties. And everybody is going to get to say one sentence.
MUSSER: And potentially one woman or two.
O'DONNELL: So, what about that Stephanie? I mean, Politico reported this week that Hillary may now move back, move later essentially in the schedule her announcement. Why does she need to get in early while the Republicans -- there are plenty of Republicans jockeying back and forth?
CUTTER: Well, I think that story was retracted by Hillary's sources that she's not going to wait to get in. I think, you know, there are some fundamental things that you have to do if you are thinking about running for president. And the further you delay that, the harder it is to put those pieces together.
At this time in 2011 we hadn't exactly stood up the campaign, but we knew exactly how we were going to do it. We had the key personnel identified. We had a strategy. We were well on our way to setting up our state operations.
So, I don't think...
O'DONNELL: You think she does have to get in early?
CUTTER: I think she does have to get in early. And I expect that she will get in early.
O'DONNELL: And Mark, we showed the poll earlier to Senator Durbin about out of Iowa that Senator Clinton is 40 points ahead of Senator Warren. But is that a good thing for the party, is it a good thing for Hillary Clinton to remain virtually unchallenged?
LEIBOVICH: I don't think so.
I mean, I think clearly -- I don't those numbers really mean all that much right now. But I think you know, clearly there's not much -- there's no competition now.
And I think if Elizabeth Warren were to get in there would be some real oxygen that sort of gathered around her.
But otherwise, no, I mean, think she's in a very safe position. But clearly I think people want to see her out there. They want to see her in a dynamic environment. And if she waits that's just going to hold off.
DICKERSON: And I think also if you're being criticized for being a part of a coronation it's not good to have your announcement date treated like a royal birth. I mean, we get story after story, when is Prince George of Cambridge going to arrive?
So, her goal is to get out and talk about herself, not all this process stuff that's why waiting I think Stephanie's point makes great sense.
And also if it looks like a coronation, the people I've talked to in Iowa last week were saying that's all the more reason she has to get out there, show she's going to fight and grit and grind it out even though she's got no competition.
And there are plenty of people also say she needs the practice.
MUSSER: Yeah, and John makes a good point, the energy in this -- the political energy in this country is really I think on the libertarian kind of isolationist on the right. There's an interesting pocket there. But also on progressive left, there's this enormous vessel of pent-up energy that is currently manifested in the Elizabeth Warren kind of show that seems the never end.
So, just giving advice if I could to some Democrats thinking about running for president, now would be terrific time to jump in because you can both build your name, you could build your credential, and if you had the right message you can grow a candidacy that credibly could make a lot of news and build yourself up. Whether you could beat Hillary Clinton, I have no idea.
LEIBOVICH: I do think, though, the dynamic between establishment and anti-establishment in both parties are really, really strong right now. And I think it would be really unfortunate if the Democrats didn't have that argument which I think the Republicans clearly are in position to have right now.
O'DONNELL: You know, we spend so much of these panels talking about horse race and we spend little time until actually the debate begins about issues.
But one of the things that I watch very closely, and I think what drives that force in both of these parties, is the issue of the income gap and wealth inequality. And it's presenting itself in different ways in both parties.
And it's interesting to see some of the Republican candidates talking about it, whether it's Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush or others, that very issue.
CUTTER: It is the strain in this election on both sides how you help people enter the middle class and keep them there.
I think where you are going to see a big difference once these debates start and people have to start answering questions, is how you do it. And that's really when the parties are going to separate and the president coming out with his budget this week. And it's a pretty clear road map of how he would do it.
Middle class economics is what he calls it. You're going to see a number of republicans, including those running for president, come out and pan it. And the question is, where are the American people? From everything that we see the American people want some fairness in our economy. They want Washington to address that it. And that means education, and infrastructure and rebalancing our tax code.
DICKERSON: People basically on the left and right feel like the system is rigged and that the wealthy have the upper hand. And the way we run our presidential campaigns puts presidential candidates in the totally -- who do they spend their time with? Very, very wealthy people asking them for their money. And then when they do their campaign events, yes somebody may talk about poverty -- we know what it looks like when somebody is going to campaign on an issue, they to go places where people are actually poor and they engage at protracted level.
So let's see, there's a lot of rhetoric on both sides, but let's see how much the candidates actually spend in places doing these kinds of things.
CUTTER: And which side -- on both sides of the partisan divide -- some of these solutions are also going to create controversy within the Democratic Party or within Republican Party. And that is going to be interesting in and of itself.
NOONAN: But I think candidates -- it's interesting that they're talking about this. And I think it has to do with the fact that people in America understand that the poor now are stuck in a way they haven't been in the past and have various reasons that they can't rise, and somebody's got to look at that, because it's kind of unAmerican that you can't rise, you know. So, it's an essential issue.
O'DONNELL: It is the Superbowl today. I know we usually talk about the Superbowl of politics. But of course it is the Superbowl today.
And Mark, you cover lots of interesting people. You have great profile in the New York Times magazine on Tom Brady. In fact, it's the cover. We'll show the cover. And you spend a lot of time with him, everything to what he eats, and his life coach, and his daily trainer.
What did you -- your a long time Patriots fan, but what did you find most interesting about Tom Brady? LEIBOVICH: I think -- well, first of all, just having the experience of writing this, normally being a political reporter it's actually shocking to write something that people really care about. I mean politics, I mean, come on.
No, it's been stunning to actually be around someone whose -- I don't think I've ever been around someone who is as workaholic and as dedicated to what he does as Tom Brady and football. I mean, the degree to which he micromanages his diet, his time, just sort of his mental energy was really amazing to me.
And for the life of me I don't know why he let me in, but I was privileged and it was really fun to be around him for a few months.
O'DONNELL: All right.
Well, who are we rooting for, anyone a Seahawks fan here? Bunch of New England Patriots.
MUSSER: I'll go with the pent-up frustration of Deflategate powers the Patriots. And then Seahawks come back and kick a last second field goal. I'll go Seahawks.
O'DONNNELL: Great to have all of you here. Thank you so much.
We'll be right back.
O'DONNELL: Bob Schieffer sat down recently with former LBJ adviser Joe Califano to discuss his book "The Triumph and Tragedy of Lyndon Johnson."
SCHIEFFER: I think what many people, young people especially think of Lyndon Johnson they have hard time getting past Vietnam. But as you point out in the new forward of the book that you wrote about him that has now been reissued, his legislative accomplishments were monumental to the point that we still live in Lyndon Johnson's America. Talk a little bit about that.
CALIFANO: Well, we do. First of all, if a president today passes one or two laws over a four-year term we think it's achievement. Johnson passed hundreds of laws over the three Congresses.
Look at education, health care, Medicare, Medicaid; thousands of community health centers around the country, the school lunch and school breakfast programs and then people think of that and, of course, civil rights.
SCHIEFFER: You were his closest aide on domestic affairs; you were there from morning until late at night for three and a half years.
How did he do it?
CALIFANO: He was focused. We knew what he wanted. He said, "you go out" -- to me, "you go out and get the best ideas from the brightest people."
We never asked anyone what party they were from.
And he said, "I'll worry about the politics."
He knew every senator, he knew congressmen but he also had a tremendous sense of always finding out what the opposition was going to do.
SCHIEFFER: You tell about the time that Senator Frank Church from Idaho was giving him this big lecture and kept quoting Walter Lippman, the columnist of the day, with all these criticisms.
CALIFANO: Church kept going on and Johnson said, "Well, Frank, the next time you want a dam on the Snake River in Idaho call up Walter Lippman. He could also be very tough.
He wanted to -- the Hirshhorn Museum in Washington, Joseph Hirshhorn hon, a Latvian Jew, wants to give all the sculpture; Lady Bird loves it. Johnson's going to have the Hirshhorn Museum but he wants it named after himself.
Claiborne Pell, one of the great families going back to the Mayflower, is the chair of the subcommittee that's controlling this. And he won't report it out because he wants it named just the Smithsonian Museum.
And Johnson calls Pell over and he said, Claiborne, I want the American people to see this sculpture. Now the only way they're going to see this sculpture is if we name it after this guy.
He said, I don't care what they call this museum. I don't care if they call it the horse (INAUDIBLE) museum.
CALIFANO: I want to give the American people a chance to see the sculpture. And Pell was so embarrassed he went back, changed his mind, reported the bill out.
SCHIEFFER: Some people in the Obama administration that you talk to when you say, you know, you're having trouble and all of that. But LBJ had worse problems than you do and they would say to you, yes, but it was a totally different time. The way Johnson operated wouldn't work today.
Would it work today?
CALIFANO: I think lot of it would work today. You have to sit down with a Boehner, to use an example, and say, what do you need, John? Let's figure out who do you need and what do you need so we can get this through. And then, all right, make the deals. Do the deals. Give it to them.
SCHIEFFER: You were one of the first people to criticize the movie, "Selma;" you said it was simply historically inaccurate because -- and as I looked at the trailers, it seemed that they were trying to make LBJ the heavy, one of the obstacles to passing the voting rights bill.
CALIFANO: He said that's the most important bill I ever proposed and the most important act of my administration. He was a partner with Martin Luther King.
The tragedy of the way that movie describes all the animosity between King and Johnson is that, well, one, it's not true. But number two, that's a fantastic story, a white Southern president and this great civil rights leader getting together, Johnson saying to King, you can help me with what I want to do in Congress up here if you can find the worse place in the South in Alabama or South Carolina or Mississippi or Louisiana, and get down there and get your leaders down there and get it on the radio, get it on television.
And King found Selma. That had a tremendous impact. Those two guys together did something that otherwise would never have happened. And to lose that story, I think it's a tragedy. The real story is dramatic. And it was all available.
SCHIEFFER: What do you think turned him around on civil rights because he grew up in the segregated South, he took the usual views, he generally voted the way other people in the segregationist South voted. And then he began to change.
When did that happen and why do you think that was?
CALIFANO: By the time I got to him he had changed. But I think he used to talk about his driver and his cook, who both were black, and would have to drive from Washington down to Texas. And there was no place they could stay on the road. They would have to go to the toilet by the side of the road; they -- only some places where they could get gas or eat or what have you. He thought that was awful. I think that was one.
I think teaching the Mexican kids in 1928-29 school year in Cotulla, Texas, poor Mexican kids, because he used to say, and he even said it publicly more than once, you can't look in the eyes of a poor kid that knows he's hated but doesn't know why the color of his skin would make him be hated.
And he was incidentally quite -- when people would say, how do you, why did you change your mind, what happened. He said, not everybody in life gets a chance to change when they've made a mistake. And I got that chance and I'm going to use it. And if you get that chance, you use it.
SCHIEFFER: Thank you very much. It's a very good book.
CALIFANO: Thank you, Bob. Thank you.
O'DONNELL: We also want to note that Mr. Califano currently serves on the board of directors for the CBS Corporation. We'll be back in a moment.
O'DONNELL: Well, that's all we have, all the time we have for today. Bob will be back next week.
I'll see you tomorrow on "CBS THIS MORNING." Thanks for watching. Take care.