Who Were Those Clinton-McCain Crossover Voters?
CBS News’ Election and Survey Unit’s survey analyst extraordinaire Jennifer De Pinto goes inside the exit polls from last week’s election and finds some interesting nuggets about those Hillary Clinton supporters who voted for John McCain:
As voters left the polls on Election Day, many were asked how they would have voted if the election match-up were between Hillary Clinton and John McCain rather than Barack Obama and McCain. 52 percent said they would have backed the former Democratic candidate; 41 percent would have voted for McCain, wider than Obama’s 7-point margin over McCain.
Interestingly, 16 percent of McCain voters said they would have voted for Clinton, the Democrat, if she had been her party’s nominee.
So who were these potential cross-over voters?
They were older: 61% of them were age 45 and above.
53% were women; while 47% were men.
43% of these voters who supported McCain but would have backed Clinton if she were in the race described themselves as Independents. 31% were Republicans; while 26% were Democrats.
84% of them were white – higher than the electorate at large. 12% were Hispanic, compared to 9% of the total electorate.
21% of McCain voters who would have supported Clinton said race was factor in their vote. 19% of McCain voters overall said race was factor in their vote.
61% of these McCain voters who would have backed Clinton earned $50K or more annually. 39% earned less. 61% do not have a college degree.
These voters valued experience over change. 47% said experience was their top candidate quality and 32% said a candidate who shares their values. Just 10% picked change. But like voters overall, the economy was the top issue for these voters.
58% of McCain voters who would have supported Clinton if she were a candidate said their candidate’s personal and leadership qualities was more important in their vote; 36% said it was their candidate’s positions on the issues.
Among McCain backers overall, voters were divided with 48% choosing issues and 49% picking qualities. But among the electorate at large, 58% said their candidate’s position on the issues was more important.
While 85% of Obama voters said they would have voted for Clinton had she been the Democratic candidate, 13% would not have supported her including 6% who said they would have backed McCain and 7% who said they would not have voted.
60% of these voters were under age 45.
They were mostly men. 59% were men; while 41% were women.
41% of these voters who supported Obama but would not have backed Clinton if she were in the race described themselves as Democrats. 20% were Republicans; while 38% were Independents.
While most of these voters were white (74%); 17% were black – higher than the share of the total electorate. 5% were Hispanic.
53% of these Obama voters who would not have backed Clinton earned $50K or more annually. 47% earned less. 58% do not have a college degree.
These voters were clearly looking for change – 57% picked it as their top candidate quality. This was followed by values (20%) and cares (12%). Experience ranked last with 8%.
60% of these voters said issue positions were more important; 38% said it was leadership and personal qualities.
As voters left the polls on Election Day, many were asked how they would have voted if the election match-up were between Hillary Clinton and John McCain rather than Barack Obama and McCain. 52 percent said they would have backed the former Democratic candidate; 41 percent would have voted for McCain, wider than Obama’s 7-point margin over McCain.
Interestingly, 16 percent of McCain voters said they would have voted for Clinton, the Democrat, if she had been her party’s nominee.
So who were these potential cross-over voters?
While 85% of Obama voters said they would have voted for Clinton had she been the Democratic candidate, 13% would not have supported her including 6% who said they would have backed McCain and 7% who said they would not have voted.
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See all 150 CommentsWho knows how those opinions may have shifted had Hillary been engaged in six months more of campaigning, but to take this as some sort of untouchable truth that Hillary is a superior candidate is a very flawed conclusion. People like Lakrosse are assuming that the opinions of Hillary by voters at this point are exactly the same ones that they would have had if she had engaged in the general election campaign. What kind of gaffes may she have made? What missteps may she have made to turn some voters off? What new voters may she have pulled in that said they wouldn''t have supported her? It is far more complex that these simple exit polls seem to indicate.
Who knows how those opinions may have shifted had Hillary been engaged in six months more of campaigning, but to take this as some sort of untouchable truth that Hillary is a superior candidate is a very flawed conclusion. People like Lakrosse are assuming that the opinions of Hillary by voters at this point are exactly the same ones that they would have had if she had engaged in the general election campaign. What kind of gaffes may she have made? What missteps may she have made to turn some voters off? What new voters may she have pulled in that said they wouldn''t have supported her? It is far more complex that these simple exit polls seem to indicate.
Who knows how those opinions may have shifted had Hillary been engaged in six months more of campaigning, but to take this as some sort of untouchable truth that Hillary is a superior candidate is a very flawed conclusion. People like Lakrosse are assuming that the opinions of Hillary by voters at this point are exactly the same ones that they would have had if she had engaged in the general election campaign. What kind of gaffes may she have made? What missteps may she have made to turn some voters off? What new voters may she have pulled in that said they wouldn''t have supported her? It is far more complex that these simple exit polls seem to indicate.
I know I basically threw away my vote, but I could not vote against a military hero and for a socialist with ties to Ayers.
and I could not vote for a war monger and against a democrat.
Following your logic: If Clinton was running against Mickey Mouse and got 51% to the mouse''s 20% she would be winning by a larger margin, too. So what? Is this news? Obama got 53% of the vote! His larger majority is more important.
On the other hand, the Republican party''s transparent attempt to curry the female vote with Palin as VP was an embarrassment. Had it been Clinton/? vs McCain/Palin, I would have had a very difficult decision indeed!
That was the whole reason why Hillary should never have been the nominee. She is too polarizing. I''m a Democrat but many people on our side are delusional about the "popularity" of the Clintons.
Believe me, if Hillary was on the ticket, many Republican voters who didn''t show up for McCain on Nov 4th vs Obama would have been there, just to vote against her. The same way we Democrats voted against Bush more than we voted FOR Kerry in 2004.
I mean, Obama went through a really tough general election. Daily attacks by McCain and the Wasilla Hillbilly.
Hillary? She was pretty much out of the spotlight.
So here is a November poll showing Hillary would have won an even bigger landslide than Obama.
And this means what, exactly?
Posted by FromTexwLove
you never fail to come up with the most dumbests things. If the race was closer maybe people would consider listening to the reasons you believe Obama win. He won deal with it. I don''t care if you want to get over it, you can let it consume you if you want, just deal with it.
Clinton did not suffer the last months of heavy negative advertising and personal attacks that Obama did. NATURALLY her positives would be higher and negatives lower by election day.
So OF COURSE Clinton did better against McCain. If the situation between Clinton had won the nomination then Obama would have polled better than Clinton after the election.
This is a meaningless and embarrassingly stupid poll.
Obama did play by the rules and he won except for the DNC stealing the Fl and Mi primaries,
Posted by dburfears
Couldn''t agree more.
It wasn''t the DNC who "stole" your Florida primary from you - It was your republican leadership.
This article provides no real new data, it does twist the knife in Hillary a little more (as if she was close to being over it all yet) but the idea that this kind of inane what if has any value is just plain stupid. African American votes may have changed substantially and you would likely not have seen the Sarah Palin phenomenon which frightened anyone with an IQ over 85 away from the Republican ticket.
o...k....
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Posted by mikeant50 at 11:04 AM
I''m beginning to agree. CBS has really gone down in quality.
Obama won. Hillary didn''t even make it to the nomination. GET OVER IT!!!
o...k....
Posted by MegamanX1 at 11:04 AM : Nov 13, 2008
What, were you expecting politics to be RATIONAL???
Check back in two years. See how rational you think it was to give the Democrats ABSOLUTE POWER.
We saw what absolute power did to the GOP. What do you think the "naughty boys" will do when THEY GET IT???
PUMA
Hmmm. Looks to me like there are more Pumas than anyone estimated and that they have yet to be defanged.
Well, looking forward, I hope we DO get the opportunity to elect Hillary president! :)
Data shows that while new voters skyrocketed this cycle, the turnout was roughly the same. With Obama winning a decisive (though not major) victory, we can extrapolate that the new voters turned out to vote for him, and that (in order for the overall turnout to remain the same as ''04) many Republican voters stayed home.
Who is willing to make the case that Hillary would have brought in just as many new voters and that conservatives would have been just as ambivalent about voting AGAINST her?
Nazi Fascist (Delusional-Crying) Hillary all Too Well
The Real ... JUDAS =
Nazi Fascist (Delusional-Crying) Hillary and Nazi (racist) Bill
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Standing again Next to : NAZI Fascist BUSH
Again ENDORSING NAZI Fascist Bush
Again ENDORSING : The Republican NAZI Fascist Party
Saying Again and Again and Again :
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MORE and BETTER Paying Jobs to America"
Nazi Fascist (Delusional-Crying) Hillary and Nazi (racist) Bill :
JOB DESTROYER
WAGE PACKAGE DESTROYER
WORKING MIDDLE CLASS AMERICA DESTROYER
FAMILY UNIT DESTROYER
DEMOCRACY DESTROYER
HOME OWNERSHIP DESTROYER
CREDIT DESTROYER
AMERICAN ECONOMY DESTROYER
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DEMOCRATIC PARTY DESTROYER
SLAVE LABOR and CHILD FORCED SLAVE LABOR
The MEAL TICKET for :
Nazi Fascist (Delusional-Crying) Hillary and Nazi (racist) Bill
The Republican NAZI Fascist Party
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Posted by lastdance126
So that''s is why Obama has so many former Clinton administration staffers on his transition team. That''s why he called Bill and his economic advisors on how to deal with economic crisis. Makes sense. Get ready for that Clinton administration again.
Data shows that while new voters skyrocketed this cycle, the turnout was roughly the same. With Obama winning a decisive (though not major) victory, we can extrapolate that the new voters turned out to vote for him, and that (in order for the overall turnout to remain the same as ''04) many Republican voters stayed home.
Who is willing to make the case that Hillary would have brought in just as many new voters and that conservatives would have been just as ambivalent about voting AGAINST her?
Data shows that while new voters skyrocketed this cycle, the turnout was roughly the same. With Obama winning a decisive (though not major) victory, we can extrapolate that the new voters turned out to vote for him, and that (in order for the overall turnout to remain the same as ''04) many Republican voters stayed home.
Who is willing to make the case that Hillary would have brought in just as many new voters and that conservatives would have been just as ambivalent about voting AGAINST her?
What an idiot, biggot, dumba$$ you are!!!!
It might come as a surprise to you but we, Americans, have spoken.
Go have another Budwhipper, looser.
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