Starting Gate: Calm Before The Storm?
In 2000, revelations that then-Governor George W. Bush has been arrested for driving while under the influence helped rock the final weekend of that presidential campaign. In 2004, it was a last-minute video tape from Osama bin Laden that helped inject late drama into the race. In 2008, about all we had to chew on over the last weekend was Barack Obama’s lead in the polls and John McCain’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live.”
To say this campaign is winding down to an anticlimactic finish, however, is to ignore the history of presidential elections over the past two decades. With a large turnout election brewing, millions of votes already cast, and still a full day before the polls open, this is just the calm before the storm – regardless of what the final outcome may be.
Frantic last-minute campaigning has led to a mind-boggling itinerary for the candidates in the race and there is some evidence that the race is tightening oh-so-slightly, if not on the national level, then in the battlegrounds. It looks for all intents and purposes to be a field tilted heavily towards the Democrats. But it ain’t over yet.
Encouraging signs for McCain and Republicans remain viable. Obama, for all his advantages, hovers right around or below 50 percent in many of the polls in key states, even those which he leads. The McCain campaign hopes that their opponent has reached his high-water mark in that regard and that they will pick up the vast majority of undecided voters, leaving their path to 270 Electoral Votes alive.
They have some reason for the optimism. No Democrat has won the White House with 50 percent or more of the vote nationally since Jimmy Carter narrowly did so in 1976. Bill Clinton failed to win a majority of the vote in either of his elections and while John Kerry received more votes than any Democratic candidate ever, he fell short of the White House in Ohio.
Anyone paying attention to the last two presidential elections understands all-too well that the path to the presidency is through the Electoral College, not the popular vote. The battlegrounds of this race remain almost exclusively in Republican territory but it is, indeed, Republican territory and it won’t be given up easily. Early voting and polls indicate Democrats are poised to make some tremendous gains but it they won’t come easy.
Campaigns are full of surprises and unexpected results. No campaign understands that better than Obama’s. Their loss in New Hampshire during the primaries, despite a ten-point lead in the polls, should be more than enough to serve as a reminder of what can happen on Election Day. Get ready, because one way or the other, tomorrow is going to be one heck of a ride.
Around The Track
McCain will make stops in Florida, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona. Obama stumps in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. Sarah Palin will be in Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada while Joe Biden visits Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
McCain has a tradition of going to the movies on Election Day, but the New York Times reports that this time, he’ll continue campaigning in two critical Western states, New Mexico and Colorado.
Obama maintains a 13-point lead in the latest CBS News poll, leading McCain 54 percent to 41 percent.
Obama stumped in Ohio with Bruce Springsteen yesterday in the rain, reports CBS News’ Maria Gavrilovic. “I don’t’ know about you, but I want my country back, I want my dream back, I want my America back!,” Springsteen said. “Now is the time to stand with Barack Obama and Joe Biden, roll up our sleeves, and come.”
To say this campaign is winding down to an anticlimactic finish, however, is to ignore the history of presidential elections over the past two decades. With a large turnout election brewing, millions of votes already cast, and still a full day before the polls open, this is just the calm before the storm – regardless of what the final outcome may be.
Frantic last-minute campaigning has led to a mind-boggling itinerary for the candidates in the race and there is some evidence that the race is tightening oh-so-slightly, if not on the national level, then in the battlegrounds. It looks for all intents and purposes to be a field tilted heavily towards the Democrats. But it ain’t over yet.
Encouraging signs for McCain and Republicans remain viable. Obama, for all his advantages, hovers right around or below 50 percent in many of the polls in key states, even those which he leads. The McCain campaign hopes that their opponent has reached his high-water mark in that regard and that they will pick up the vast majority of undecided voters, leaving their path to 270 Electoral Votes alive.
They have some reason for the optimism. No Democrat has won the White House with 50 percent or more of the vote nationally since Jimmy Carter narrowly did so in 1976. Bill Clinton failed to win a majority of the vote in either of his elections and while John Kerry received more votes than any Democratic candidate ever, he fell short of the White House in Ohio.
Anyone paying attention to the last two presidential elections understands all-too well that the path to the presidency is through the Electoral College, not the popular vote. The battlegrounds of this race remain almost exclusively in Republican territory but it is, indeed, Republican territory and it won’t be given up easily. Early voting and polls indicate Democrats are poised to make some tremendous gains but it they won’t come easy.
Campaigns are full of surprises and unexpected results. No campaign understands that better than Obama’s. Their loss in New Hampshire during the primaries, despite a ten-point lead in the polls, should be more than enough to serve as a reminder of what can happen on Election Day. Get ready, because one way or the other, tomorrow is going to be one heck of a ride.
Around The Track
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See all 79 CommentsBush team rushes environment policy changes
Whether it''s getting wolves off the Endangered Species List, allowing power plants to operate near national parks, loosening regulations for factory farm waste or making it easier for mountaintop coal-mining operations, these proposed changes have found little favor with environmental groups.
Even some free-market organizations have joined conservation groups to urge a moratorium on last-minute rules proposed by the Interior Department and the Environmental Protection Agency, among others.
John Kostyack of the National Wildlife Federation, which joined Lehrer''s group to call for a ban on these last-minute rules, said citizens are cut out of the process, allowing changes in U.S. law that the public opposes, such as rolling back protections under the Endangered Species Act.
Industry is likely to benefit if Bush''s rules on the environment become effective, Madia said.
"Whether it''s the electricity industry or the mining industry or the agriculture industry, this is going to remove government restrictions on their activity and in turn they''re going to be allowed to pollute more and that ends up harming the public," Madia said in a telephone interview.
What is unusual is the speedy trip some of these environmental measures are taking through the process.
I remember how hard I''d worked to get by my first year in graduate school; never had I gotten so little sleep, read and wrote so much, discussed so many disparate topics. I sort of got used to that routine until I started on my actual doctoral research topic; all over again, I was sure I''d never be able to work that hard again.
What happened, of course, was that the doctorate''s was but a mere entry slip to the club of working under impossible hours and stress. I could use all of my training, would need it all, to keep moving forward.
Those who worked hard and long on this election will, I''m sure, feel the same way. The foundational work happens all along, all through the campaign. The real hard work is making something of the interim results of all that work: What do you do if you accomplish your objective of finishing your degree or winning the election? That''s a scary thought to ponder, but the answer is that to make it all have been worthwhile, it takes extra effort again to make sure you can bring those hard-won little victories to a purposeful, successful end.
Let''s all remember that we will need to work just as hard to keep everyone motivated and working in a future-defining direction after election day. We''re all prepared for it now, so let''s do it!
That is right, Palin has the only US state where economic expansion is expected for the next few years. It has been her policies and investment in infrastructure, resource management, and cost cutting that has given ALASKA the healthy economy. They have also invested in education, social programs, and more, all without raising taxes.
Obama will not do the same, but rather spend on more special interest groups, fund failing programs, raise taxes, and put more Americans on welfare than we have seen since the dirty thirties.
To see so many Americans, lulled into the belief that Obama is Kennedy is truly sad. Mr. Kennedy, was a war hero, a patriot, actually had policies and a plan. Obama is the puppet of liberal society.
McCain/Palin 08 if America matters.
But that''s what the Messiah is going to do, and as a result a lot of normally non-violent folks who "cling to guns or religion" are going to really be feeling "antipathy to people who aren''t like them," just not for the reasons Obama believes.
And therein lies the real tragedy, for November 4, 2008, could have been a shining moment in American history. After all, a black man is running for president, and might actually win. This should have united the country like never before, and come close to ending the racism that has been one of our nation''s banes since its inception.
However, because Obama used race to get himself to this point, while also pitting folks of differing incomes against each other for his own political benefit, it seems far more likely that tomorrow will divide our country like it hasn''t been in over a century ushering back in hatred that will make Martin Luther King Jr. roll over in his grave.
As a result, Tuesday has all the makings of a day that will live in infamy, for what "The One" has wrought will leave behind an America that resembles nothing like what we''ve asked in song for years be blessed.
Ironically, it seems the Messiah''s reverend will get his wish after all.
How about Obama''s aunt, the illegal immigrant living in poverty in public housing with a four-year deportation notice? I thought Obama said we should take care of our brothers and sisters--just not aunts? And yet she made illegal campaign contributions -- but the press seems to make little of the fact that Obama has chosen to take no safety precautions when it comes to collecting money nor has he released donor names.
Wake up voters!!!
the type of change we don''t need:
"Employees for Free Choice Act"
"Count Every Vote Act"
"Fairness Doctrine"
"The Freedom of Choice Act"
English NOT our official language?
Drivers Licenses & Health Benefits for illegal immigrants?
Do you really know the change our country is in for with an Obama administration?
I may not agree with Mr. Obama, but have resigned to accept that there is a very real possibility that he will win. If so, I hope that Americans will unite, and struggle through the rough seas we will be riding.
Obama had to be a "hero" in so many ways to reach where he is today. Do you have any idea of the travails he has faced, of the effort, study, and dedication it has taken?
Certainly, John F. Kennedy is well-remembered; like McCain, his "ship" too was hit by enemy fire, and still he survived. Kennedy was the heir to an American fortune, where the best schools, healthy food and surroundings were always provided as a matter of course.
Same for McCain, who''s father and grandfather were Naval Admirals, without which history and standing he would have been excused from the Naval Academy any number of times for his overindulgences.
Barack went through on scholarship, hard work, and family values that prized successes so gained. He is one of our most intelligent candidates ever, has the most diverse background, the broadest perspective. Even his modest "community organizer" background, much derided by Republicans from Palin on down, was put to extremely effective use in getting out the greatest number of new voters the nation has ever seen. ("What in the world does a ''community organizer'' do, anyway?" They ask. Now they know---they rally the people to get their thoughts and needs realized, they get out the vote!)
Here comes the critically important characteristic for those of us that go round and round with them on this site and wonder why they never get it (and never will.) They are people who are so self-righteous, so ill-informed, and so dogmatic that nothing you can say or do will change their minds.
Which proves my point, you can lead a far right wing nut to the truth but you can''''t make them think.
Many men and women have raised the masses in revolt, brilliant leaders. Yet history has shown that despite their intelligence, ability to stir the emotions of a people, they failed to lead their people to the glory of their rhetoric.
Mr. Obama may be a man of great intelligence, broad perspective, and one to enflame the hearts of an America, looking for change. He lacks the grit to make decisions, be they right or wrong. His voting record of "present" shows his inability to stand for something. McCain, right or wrong did vote, and when the course of his action was dangerous, he knows to retreat and find another route of attack.
Churchill, Kennedy, Thatcher, and others never feared voicing their plan of leadership, and were willing to admit defeat, but always fought onward. Obama will never admit error.
McCain admits things, admits being human, and Palin is honest and does have a plan, like it or not, and has shown her willingness to attack, and do what needs to be done to help her Alaskan citizens. Chicago and Illinois are in without a game plan. But do have a history of great rhetoric.
McCain for leadership and a plan.
Now you should know this I went to both web sites and read up on them in their own words (well their advisors own words). Then I tallied all the mud slinging that was done (I went to factcheck.org) and that along with the information is how to vote.
Be informed, when you listen to someone else you are just being a sheep.
No, and neither do you. In all likelihood, it will be more change than you''d prefer, and less than I''d prefer. He''ll have the most intractable set of problems to face right off, and he''ll no doubt be blamed for not being the messiah the republicans keep talking about. But he''s what we need right now. Real Americans Vote Obama!
Ego and Mouth
By Thomas Sowell
After the big gamble on subprime mortgages that led to the current financial crisis, is there going to be an even bigger gamble, by putting the fate of a nation in the hands of a man whose only qualifications are ego and mouth?
Barack Obama has the kind of cocksure confidence that can only be achieved by not achieving anything else.
Anyone who has actually had to take responsibility for consequences by running any kind of enterprise-- whether economic or academic, or even just managing a sports team-- is likely at some point to be chastened by either the setbacks brought on by his own mistakes or by seeing his successes followed by negative consequences that he never anticipated.
The kind of self-righteous self-confidence that has become Obama''s trademark is usually found in sophomores in Ivy League colleges-- very bright and articulate students, utterly untempered by experience in real wor
LISTEN TO OBAMA''''S OWN WORDS:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=Hdi4onAQBWQ
THE FOLLOWING STATES ARE IN CRITICAL DANGER OF AN ECONOMIC DISASTER FROM AN OBAMA PRESIDENCY:
WYOMING, WEST VIRGINIA, KENTUCKY, PENNSYLVANIA, MONTANA, TEXAS, COLORADO, INDIANA, NORTH DAKOTA, ILLINOIS, AND VIRGINIA.
PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN THESE COAL-PRODUCING STATES SHOULD SAVE THEMSELVES!
DON''''T VOTE FOR THE ONE WHO WILL BRING RUIN TO YOUR ECONOMY!
ALL AMERICANS WILL BE FACING FINANCIAL TURMOIL DUE TO AN MASSIVE INCREASE IN POWER RATES DUE TO OBAMA''''S CAP AND TRADE POLICIES.
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Posted by CBSisPravda at 10:00 AM : Nov 03, 2008
Fear and Panic, typical Republican response.
McCain / Palin have worked for their success, and want America to work. To invest in America''s independance on the outside for resources, stop job losses, create new jobs.
Obama and the Unicorn Utopians will have no plan, but will cater to all who supported financially.
and then meddled until the economy collapsed completely. The people demanded
change.
Along came a glib, smooth talking newcomer. He had no governing experience to
speak of, but promised the change his people sought. He also promised free health
care, strict controls on guns and a massive redistribution of wealth from the few
rich to the many poor. The people praised him, the press extolled him and vilified
his opponent.
Children sang songs about him and university students chanted his name.
He was elected, and all the changes came to pass, but not as most had expected.
Because it was Germany, in 1938.
If that scares you, it *** well should.
The polls, the people, and the media are wrong.
Moreover, he and his running-mate, Joe Biden, represent a Democratic Party overly obligated to special interests like trial lawyers and rapacious public-employee unions.
Even as the economy is being rocked, Obama advocates a fundamental rewriting of the tax code that - far from cutting taxes for "95 percent" of Americans, as he promises - would dramatically raise tax rates, coupled with $650 billion in tax-credit-driven hikes in entitlement and other spending.
And that is likely just the starting point - with the Nancy Pelosi-Harry Reid Congress pushing hard to enhance the handouts while raising taxes further and slashing defense spending.
It is, in fact, on defense and national security that the differences between McCain and Obama are especially clear.
Simply put, McCain gets it - and Obama doesn''t.
McCain, for example, knew that a pacified Iraq was critical to victory in the War on Terror. Obama, despite campaign-driven rhetoric, seems barely to believe that the war needs to be fought.
But these times demand genuine, tested and principled leadership and experience - of the sort that John McCain has demonstrated in a lifetime of public service.
As Obama''s opponents during the primaries - including Joe Biden - repeatedly warned, the presidency is no place for on-the-job training.
Hallo
I am not american. Therefore I can%u2019t vote. But I hope the american people
will be wise enough to vote and elect McCain.
ALL PEOPLE SHOULD VOTE FOR MCCAIN.
Obama hasn%u2019t do anything as senator and he is not an american in
hearth. He is also not to trust. He has only luck !
Regards
Reuben the Engineer
If that scares you, it *** well should.
The polls, the people, and the media are wrong.
Posted by Olivia4441 at 10:22
Not even a close resemblance---
This coming from Olivia who stiffed a waiter (probably working his way through college) for wearing an Obama tie or button--she essentially "took away" his freedom of expression because she "thinks" spreading the wealth means giving to people who don''t work.
Obamas tax plan is those who WORK and earn under $200,000, will pay less taxes---peple who don''t work or on welfare will be UNAFFECTED!
Olivia is one of the republicans who like to control the rest of us by taking away as much of our freedoms as they can--thus her disdain for the waiter for Obama.
Go ahead Olivia vote for McCain, Those of us who are sick of spending 10 billion a month for a manufactured war, over 4000 troops killed, over 600,000 Iraqu civilians killed, owing China over %500 billion and McCain likes the "status quo"?
GO OBAMA!!
Posted by Olivia4441
That is total C RAP!!!!!
There is NOTHING to win in Iraq---you can''t win anything in an occupation!
Iraq had NOTHING to do with 911 and here we are spending 10 billion a month there----Obama and millions of Americans know the real reason we went there and it''s time to get out---and seeing as we never got Bin Laden when he was in Afganistan--lets get out of there too---Bush NEVER intended on getting Bin Laden--his "blood brother"!
Posted by suz158
Well, now that you mention it, not perhaps analyze people who rebel---but absolutely lock away the ones in Washington responsible for the condition of this country! White jackets, padded cells, no forks or knives, just let them watch scenes from the killing in Iraq over and over and over, then waterboard them.
Posted by olivia4441 at 10:47
You WIll be proven wrong----thou generalizes too much--racist bigot!
As one who voted for McCain over Bush in 2000, I will be pleased to have a small part in making history tomorrow when I cast my vote for Barack Obama.
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Posted by olivia4441 at 10:54 AM : Nov 03, 2008
The Bin Ladens and the Bushs have been "in bed" together for decades!!!!
Bin Laden and lil pres Bush are "blood brothers" !
Daddy Bush was in a breakfast meeting in NY with Bin Ladens brother the morning of 911!! Coincidence?----I think now!!!
Obama will do his best to right this country--you really need to take some meds to get you off the
Hannity/Lintball propaganda channel, or you''ll be living in self induced fear.
BTW--Obama got my vote over a week ago---
I can''t wait to prove that all of you idiots were wrong all along. Countdown to your demise.
In fact, law enforcement agencies across the country have been gearing up for weeks to deal with the unrest they fear if Obama loses. A battalion of soldiers specially trained suppressing urban opposition has been returned from Iraq to the U.S. to squash any post-election resistance to phony returns.
Honest elections are a thing of the past in this nation, just like rescuing cities when they are destroyed by natural disasters.
IT SEEMS TO ME THAT TODAY IT WILL BE SPOKEN ABOUT SARAH PALIN.
YOU ALL GUYS ARE PAID FROM OBAMA TO SPEAK ABOUT HER UND DISCREDIT
HER !!!
THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE MANIPULATED FROM OBAMA FOR THIS REASON THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAS TO VOTE AND ELECT MCCAIN FOR PRESIDENT.
OBAMA HAS ONLY LUCK ! AS SENATOR HAD NO RECORDS !
REUBEN
Posted by Olivia4441 at 11:07
The majority of the country is wrong and Olivia is right--hmmmm why aren''t you running?
IT SEEMS TO ME THAT TODAY IT WILL BE SPOKEN ABOUT SARAH PALIN.
YOU ALL GUYS ARE PAID FROM OBAMA TO SPEAK ABOUT HER UND DISCREDIT
HER !!! THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE MANIPULATED FROM OBAMA
FOR THIS REASON THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAS TO VOTE AND ELECT
MCCAIN FOR PRESIDENT.
OBAMA HAS ONLY LUCK ! AS SENATOR HAD NO RECORDS !
REUBEN
Posted by gsm1565
**********
He has a record of sexual deviance. The Christian Right would never vote him in. Don''t waste your vote. You might as well vote for Ron Paul or Ralph Nader (yes, he IS running again).
Oh yes, I will revele in the afterglow of this election, but nothing more then watching a Turn Coat , Man without a country, Joe Lieberman. He is one person who does not know what the hell he wants.
With evangelical zeal Obama will convince his followers to replace reason with hope and belief %u2026 to blindly follow him %u2026 never challenge him %u2026 and embrace his words as gospel.
In the real, and unforgiving world of economics however, when you immediately gratify everyone by feasting on the goose that lays the golden eggs, the economy looses it%u2019s ability to continue generating growth and wealth.
Obama is promising everyone a piece of the pie, whether they helped bake it, or not %u2026 but, only in a socialistic, or communist state do the non-contributors demand to share equally in the property that belongs to others.
Immediate gratification, and getting something for nothing, is like a drug to the malcontents, but in the big picture, every farmer knows that even if you get hungry, you never eat your seed crop %u2026 unless you want it to be your last meal.
If Obama gets elected, America will turn into a third world country, with massive government welfare programs, unable to generate jobs for it%u2019s citizens, and unable to compete in the global markets. Keep America safe, free and strong %u2026 elect McCain/Palin on November 4th.
"There you go again"
On November 5th, we will either celebrate V for victory or V for vendetta. So be ready.
Remember, remember the 5th of November, the gunpowder treason and plot. I see no reason why the gunpowder treason should ever be forgot - V
http://msunderestimated.com/SNLBailoutSkit.wmv
Do you really believe the BULL**** you posted. You might be happy with the way the world has been for all these years. I want someone as our President who is not supporting all the things that George Bush stands for because he has not done a *** thing for America.Take off your blinders because McCain is what''s going to mess this Country up if he get''s in office. All I can say is that THAT BARACK OBAMA HAS MY VOTE ALL THE WAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! CHANGE IS WHAT AMERICA NEEDS AND THAT''S BARACK OBAMA.
Exactly what kind of change are you talking about? Other than some *** about 95% of Americans getting a tax cut. That is not going to happen. Take a look at the numbers the spending far out weighs the the top 10% of Americans earning over 250K.
Mmmmm...McCain and Palin...
more "Republican philosophy", meaning:
more presidential signing statements...
more "unitary executive" thinking...
more "executive privilege" escapes from justice...
more of the "voodoo economics" that''s served us so well for the last eight years...
mmmmmmmmmm........
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