Revisiting The Bradley Effect
[Editor's note: This post was written by Arden Farhi and Jamie McGlinchy of the CBS News digital team. Also be sure to check out the video they put together below featuring CBS News' director of surveys, Kathy Frankovic.]
Twenty six years ago, then-mayor of Los Angeles Tom Bradley ran for governor of California. Bradley, one of the first black mayors of a major city, was leading his opponent George Deukmejian in the polls just days before the election. But on that first Tuesday in November, it was Deukmejian, a white man, making plans to move into the governor's mansion, not Bradley.
"And thus was born the Bradley Effect ... that white voters will tell a pollster one thing, and the do another," says Kathy Frankovic, Director of Surveys for CBS News.
Throughout the 1980s and up until the early 1990s, the Bradley Effect was evident in other races. David Dinkins narrowly won the New York City mayoral race in 1989 after holding a significant margin in the polls. Doug Wilder nearly lost the race for Governor in Virginia that same year even though polls had him ahead before election day.
"I personally don't see the evidence in the surveys that we've conducted that white voters are misrepresenting their point of view and their preference to pollsters," Frankovic said. "I think you have to recognize that times have changed. In the 1980s we had issues like crime and welfare that were very "racialized" issues. We were less than 20 years from the passage of the Voting Rights Act and the Civil Rights Act. We were closer to the urban riots."
Frankovic also points out that Obama was a child during that era and plenty of today's voters weren't even born yet.
Recent races in which a black candidate has opposed a white candidate seem unaltered by the Bradley Effect. A poll taken in early October 2006 before the Massachusetts governor's race showed Deval Patrick leading his white opponent by 25 points. A month later, he would go on to win the election by that same margin.
"Now are there voters that are using race as part of their decision making process? Absolutely. But are they lying to pollsters about it probably not," Frankovic said.
We're sure to find out on November 4th.
Twenty six years ago, then-mayor of Los Angeles Tom Bradley ran for governor of California. Bradley, one of the first black mayors of a major city, was leading his opponent George Deukmejian in the polls just days before the election. But on that first Tuesday in November, it was Deukmejian, a white man, making plans to move into the governor's mansion, not Bradley.
"And thus was born the Bradley Effect ... that white voters will tell a pollster one thing, and the do another," says Kathy Frankovic, Director of Surveys for CBS News.
Throughout the 1980s and up until the early 1990s, the Bradley Effect was evident in other races. David Dinkins narrowly won the New York City mayoral race in 1989 after holding a significant margin in the polls. Doug Wilder nearly lost the race for Governor in Virginia that same year even though polls had him ahead before election day.
"I personally don't see the evidence in the surveys that we've conducted that white voters are misrepresenting their point of view and their preference to pollsters," Frankovic said. "I think you have to recognize that times have changed. In the 1980s we had issues like crime and welfare that were very "racialized" issues. We were less than 20 years from the passage of the Voting Rights Act and the Civil Rights Act. We were closer to the urban riots."
Frankovic also points out that Obama was a child during that era and plenty of today's voters weren't even born yet.
Recent races in which a black candidate has opposed a white candidate seem unaltered by the Bradley Effect. A poll taken in early October 2006 before the Massachusetts governor's race showed Deval Patrick leading his white opponent by 25 points. A month later, he would go on to win the election by that same margin.
"Now are there voters that are using race as part of their decision making process? Absolutely. But are they lying to pollsters about it probably not," Frankovic said.
We're sure to find out on November 4th.
"This country does not deserve to be put in the hands of a glib and cocky know-it-all, who has accomplished nothing beyond the advancement of his own career with rhetoric, and who has for years allied himself with a succession of people who have openly expressed their hatred of America"
Obama casts all whites as bigots and racist, include that along with Rev. Wright and his "God Dame America", whites infected blacks with HIV to destroy the black race and of course Obama''s denial that he never heard sermons like that in 20 plus years.
The MSM media has been so biased in Obama''s favor that by the grace of God those things came out before MSM embraced Obama so as to keep the american votes uninformed..
I wish his grandmother well but it is suspect that 2 weeks before the election he goes to his grandmother''s side, the good grandson that threw her under the bus many months ago.
I have yet to understand how a man could not find the time to go see his dying mother after she was found to be terminally ill?? I walked away from my job to be with my sister..
No regrets: God, Family, Work, priorities that have guided my life as well as most people I know..
Obama says his grandmother is the last relative he has yet he has a half-sister that has been staying with his grandmother and an uncle in Chicago??? Did Michelle and the children go as well - after all his grandmother is the children''s great-grandmother and Obama made it sound as if the end is near??
It''s still difficult to believe that so many millions of americans have bought into Obama - it''s scary as h---.
What a joke
Ooo Baaaam aaaaa
Obama, Obama
Ooo Baaaam aaaaa
Obama OBaam aaa
Thank God for Barack Obama!
Posted by OneAmerican7 at
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Boy if you folks are still buying that BS about Obama and a phony birth certificate, you must think the Republicans are one useless groups of a$$whipes. I mean after 2 years of campaigning against him they weren''t capable of getting him off the ballot?
Why would you be supporting total incompetents like that?
It would be preferable to support somebody even if they weren''t born in the US than good for nothing incompetents who consistantly vote against the American people.
What a joke
Posted by Palin0808 at 12:05 AM : Oct 24, 2008"
Palin is only on the ticket with McCain because she is a woman.
http://joeschmoepolitico.wordpress.com/2008/10/24/i-call-***/
I''m ready to elect a President based on vision, values and credentials, not the "fear factor" (of race-bait/gender-bait politics, terrorism politics, another 9/11 or fear of voter fraud).
Read this "what if..." and put the shoe on the other foot. Let''s hope the "Bradley effect" becomes a "relic of the past" and not part of "America''s future."
"WHAT IF"....
- the Obamas paraded 5 children across the stage, including a 3-month old infant and an unwed, pregnant teenage daughter?
- Obama finished 5th from the bottom of his graduating class and McCain was President of the Harvard Law Review?
- Obama was a member of the Keating 5? (5 US Senators who ignited a political scandal as part of the 1980s Savings & Loan crisis)
- Obama met his 2nd wife in a bar and had a long affair while still married, and left his 1st wife after a severe disfiguring car accident?
- Michelle Obama was the wife who became addicted to pain killers she acquired illegally through her charitable organization?
Subtle or overt, racism can cover up, rationalize and minimize positive qualities in one candidate and emphasize negative qualities in another.
Barack Obama: B.A. in Poli Sci from Columbia U & J.D. from Harvard U - Magna *** Laude, while John McCain graduated 894 of 899 at the US Naval Academy.
This is your America, your future.
Choose the next President on the basis of merit, not just race or gender.
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by icareamerica
October 25, 2008 1:51 AM PDT
- The world, and America, is ready for change. www.iftheworldcouldvote.com.
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Reply to this comment
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See all 15 CommentsWe''re ready to elect a President based on vision, values and credentials, not the "fear factor" (race-bait/gender-bait politics, terrorism politics, a repeat 9/11 or FL/OH voter suppression).
I hope the "Bradley effect" is a "relic of the past" and not "America''s future."
Read the following to see how racism affects how people misperceive things.
"WHAT IF"....
- the Obamas paraded 5 children across the stage, including a 3-month old infant and an unwed, pregnant teenage daughter?
- Obama finished 5th from the bottom of his graduating class and McCain was President of the Harvard Law Review?
- Obama was a member of the Keating 5? (5 US Senators awho ignited a political scandal as part of the Savings and Loan crisis of the late 1980s)
- Obama met his 2nd wife in a bar and had a affair while still married, and left his 1st wife after a severe disfiguring car accident?
- Michelle was the wife who was addicted to pain killers that she acquired illegally from her charitable organization?
Subtle or overt, racism can cover up, rationalize and minimize positive qualities in one candidate and emphasize negative qualities in another.
Barack Obama got his B.A. in Poli Sci from Columbia & his J.D. from Harvard U - Magna *** Laude.
John McCain graduated 894th out of 899 from the US Naval Academy.
This is your America, your future. Choose the next President on the basis of merit, not just race or gender.