CBS News Poll: Veep Picks May Matter More This Year
A new CBS News poll on the presidential election will be released this evening but we have a few nuggets to share this morning. While most voters (67 percent) say their vote will be based mostly on the candidate at the top of the ticket, 30 percent said that the choices of their vice presidential running mates will have a great deal of influence on their decision. That’s twice the number who said the VP picks would matter in 2000, when George W. Bush and Al Gore were preparing their campaigns.
According to the poll, voters who are still undecided are more apt than those currently favoring Barack Obama or John McCain to say the candidates’ choices for vice president will be important to their vote. Forty-eight percent of those voters say the choices will influence their vote while 47 percent say they won’t. And Independents are more likely than Democrats or Republicans to say the choice of vice presidential nominee will matter.
Historically, more voters are likely to say the vice presidential selections are important after the choices are announced. In 2000, the number doubled from 15 percent before the announcements to 30 percent afterwards.
But in the last two presidential elections, the VP announcements have had little immediate impact on the horse race results. In a CBS News poll conducted after John Kerry selected John Edwards as his running mate, the Democrat led by 5 points. He led by one point before the announcement.
On the issues front, the poll shows that few voters are very confident that either candidate will make the right decisions on the economy. Just 12 percent said they were very confident that Obama would and 9 percent said the same about McCain. Forty percent said they were somewhat confident that Obama would make the right decisions and 41 percent said that about McCain. Forty-five percent said they were not confident about Obama and the economy compared to 47 percent who said that about McCain. Forty-three percent describe the state of the economy as very bad, up from 35 percent a month ago.
Americans’ assessments of the economy remain grim. Now 83% of Americans think the condition of the economy is at least somewhat bad. And the number who describes the economy as very bad has increased to 43% from 35% last month.
And more voters are very confident about McCain’s ability to make the right decisions when it comes to Iraq. Twenty-five percent said so about McCain, compared to 14 percent for Obama. Thirty-eight percent said they were somewhat confident in Obama’s ability to make the right decisions about Iraq, 29 percent said the same about McCain. And 46 percent said they were not confident about Obama on the issue, compared to 43 percent for McCain. There has been no improvement in perceptions of Obama on this measure, despite his recent trip to Iraq. Tune into the CBS Evening News tonight for more on the poll and check back at CBSNews.com for the full results at 6:30pm EST.
According to the poll, voters who are still undecided are more apt than those currently favoring Barack Obama or John McCain to say the candidates’ choices for vice president will be important to their vote. Forty-eight percent of those voters say the choices will influence their vote while 47 percent say they won’t. And Independents are more likely than Democrats or Republicans to say the choice of vice presidential nominee will matter.
Historically, more voters are likely to say the vice presidential selections are important after the choices are announced. In 2000, the number doubled from 15 percent before the announcements to 30 percent afterwards.
But in the last two presidential elections, the VP announcements have had little immediate impact on the horse race results. In a CBS News poll conducted after John Kerry selected John Edwards as his running mate, the Democrat led by 5 points. He led by one point before the announcement.
On the issues front, the poll shows that few voters are very confident that either candidate will make the right decisions on the economy. Just 12 percent said they were very confident that Obama would and 9 percent said the same about McCain. Forty percent said they were somewhat confident that Obama would make the right decisions and 41 percent said that about McCain. Forty-five percent said they were not confident about Obama and the economy compared to 47 percent who said that about McCain. Forty-three percent describe the state of the economy as very bad, up from 35 percent a month ago.
Americans’ assessments of the economy remain grim. Now 83% of Americans think the condition of the economy is at least somewhat bad. And the number who describes the economy as very bad has increased to 43% from 35% last month.
And more voters are very confident about McCain’s ability to make the right decisions when it comes to Iraq. Twenty-five percent said so about McCain, compared to 14 percent for Obama. Thirty-eight percent said they were somewhat confident in Obama’s ability to make the right decisions about Iraq, 29 percent said the same about McCain. And 46 percent said they were not confident about Obama on the issue, compared to 43 percent for McCain. There has been no improvement in perceptions of Obama on this measure, despite his recent trip to Iraq. Tune into the CBS Evening News tonight for more on the poll and check back at CBSNews.com for the full results at 6:30pm EST.
Then there is Obama that thought he had this thing all tied up and even took time to have a little victory smoke in germany. Video at http://www.theobamaplan.com I wanted Huckabee or Hillary. I didnt want either of these two. If paul runs on the LP ticket ill vote for him http://www.BarrPaul08.com as of right now I am without a candidate.
The problem with your theory is that McCain is proposing more spending than Obama and less new tax cuts. McCain wants to postpone withdrawal from Iraq which buy itself will trump all new spending proposed by Obama. Obama wants a middle class tax cut and energy rebates for the middle and working classes. He wants the wealthy and the oil companies to pay for it. That''s not a tax increase, it''s a redistribution of what Bush redistributed from the middle class to the rich.
McCain, on the other hand, proposes maintaining tax breaks for the wealthy but notthing for the middle and working classes. He wants us to keep paying for the war that the rich don''t fell strongly enough about to put their money where their mouthes are(let alone putting their butts in the line of fire).
The right kind of experience can be helpful, but experience at making the wrong decisions is not what we need more of.
Vice Presidential choice matters in McCain''s case. His age and his health make it unlikely that he will survive a single term in office.
Several individuals have had to be placed as the commander and chief of this country due to a death .
Since Ronald Reagan, the party of big business has crippled the labor movement, eviscerated banking regulations, and paved the way for profligate spending. This all while lowering taxes for the rich and while aiding Wall Street greed.
Meanwhile our infrastructure is crumbling, our schools are in a shambles, and the environment teeters on the brink of destruction.
Go ahead, America. Show precisely how ignorant and lazy you are. Keep electing these GOP clowns.
Later, when you want to whine about it, see Phil Gramm.
Inflate your tires. Obama says. From a man with an inflated ego.
Posted by cbs4me3
cbs4me3 --
You must have been the kind of child that threw yourself onto the floor kicking & screaming when you didn''t get your way. Grow up!!
Hillary opposes McSame on almost all of the issues, so you obviously didn''t share her vision for America''s future like I did. Just go sulk in the corner.
And hopefully we will be spared from your choice of Willard for VP. If that were my first name I might use a nickname too!!
the decision is clear, no more republicans ever.
We Americans want to hire the most qualified people as prez and veep.
Which leaves Obama completely out of consideration.
McCain / Romney for "honest and smart" change.
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Posted by ccfsdca at 11:32 AM : Aug 06, 2008
Condi Rice would be a disasterous choice for McCain. First, she is closely tied to a very unpopular administration. Secon, her record is litter with rampaging imncompetance (backed the invation of Iraq, mismanaged the aftermath, stunning failures in middle-east policy). Third, a *gay*, Muslim, abortion doctor would get more Republican votes than any black woman in many red states.
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Posted by perceptions5 at 11:46 AM : Aug 06, 2008
Mitt is another disasterous choice. Selecting Mitt would anger the evangelical christians because he is a Mormon. McCain desperately needs the evangelicals to preach Republican dogma and use their chruch buses to get out the red neck Republican vote. Choose Mitt and lose.
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Posted by ccfsdca at 12:10 PM : Aug 06, 2008
I grant you that Condi Rice has up sides and down sides as VP. It is an academic argument as to whether her ups out weigh her downs, but McCain is in second place. He needs someone as VP who is all up side or minimum down and big up.
Sadly, our politics is about emotion and marketing strategies, not the real issues.
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Posted by ccfsdca at 11:27 AM : Aug 06, 2008
Ii is odd that some people claim to love America, but they hate democracy. When things don''t go their way, they threaten to take up arms (which is treason).
That sounds like King George. But treason never can but lose cos if it wins then it ain''t treason.
I think he ought to pick Roberta McCain, his 96 year old mother. She is a much better pick than Romney.
Or maybe Obama should pick McCain as VP!
Bloomberg may be installed as VP to put forth agenda of privatizing government programs, infrastructure and jobs for big $$$ on behalf of his bosses, international bankers and financiers.
These bosses'' wealth is apparently jeopardized with collapsing economies worldwide today and are desperate to maintain wealth.
It is said that Al Gore is another employee too of these international bankers and financiers and he may be installed as Prez as Obama self destructs in public from this point on to the convention.
Do you think there is any truth to this?
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Posted by dasfarg at 02:20 PM : Aug 06, 2008
How about this: Bloomburg rus as BOTH the Republican and Democrat VP. That way, whoever gets elected, he is VP! This plan makes as much sense as either picking Bloomburg as VP.
Posted by pr_boxer
I pray he doesn''t pick Hillary because it could tip the scales in his favor.
Of course it matters who is selected; one never knows when the VP will suddenly become the Pres. I think in the case of both McCain and Obama, either one could be indisposed immediately as the Pres.
Posted by andylance1
Romney is an excellent business man. He turned around the Olympics in SLC, and he turned around the economy in Mass. I think McCain and Romney would make an excellent pair.
Do you think there is any truth to this?
Posted by dasfarg
In this event I would certainly pray for Hillary. The thoughts of A. Gore makes my skin crawl.
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by standlee5
August 7, 2008 9:34 PM PDT
- The VP spot totally matters for Obama since he has no experience but McCain''s been around forever, knows everyone and is a strong capable leader on his own so it won''t matter much who he chooses.
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