Starting Gate: Not As Close As You Think

After a flurry of polls this week, it’s tempting to sum up the presidential race this way: Barack Obama holds a small, but clear lead while John McCain, defying the odds, trends and landscape, remains within striking distance. The CBS/New York Times poll has Obama with a 6-point lead. It’s three points in the ABC News/Washington Post poll, three points from Newsweek and the Gallup tracking poll has it at 3 points also.

The seeming tightness of the race though has spurred question about why Obama isn’t further ahead in the current environment which appears to be tailor-made for his candidacy and his party in November. Before you go down that “what’s wrong with Obama” road though, there’s evidence out there that suggests Obama may be in much better shape than he looks to be in the national polls.

Presidents, of course, are elected by the Electoral College, not the popular vote, and a quick look at the state-by-state polls shows the kind of advantages Obama holds at the moment. Glancing at the averages compiled by Real Clear Politics, a picture emerges suggesting that Obama has a much better chance of enlarging his map than McCain.

In those blue states being talked about by Republicans as possible targets, Obama is doing more than holding his own. In Pennsylvania, the RCP average has Obama up by 7 points. In Michigan, it’s a 7.2 point lead, 11.2 points In Wisconsin and 12 points in Minnesota.

When it comes to those states Obama is looking to flip into the Democratic column, the race is much closer. McCain holds an average lead of just 0.7 points in Virginia and just 3.8 points in North Carolina. Obama meanwhile leads by 3.6 points in Colorado and holds a slight 0.5 lead in Indiana. And in Nevada, it’s a dead heat.

Meanwhile, some of the more traditional swing states look to be tilting slightly towards the Democrat. Obama holds the lead in poll averages in places Republicans have won in recent cycle. He’s up 4.5 points in Ohio and 2.5 in Missouri. Obama is holding strong in Iowa, with an average 7.4 point lead. McCain clings to a 2.2 point average lead in must-have Florida and New Hampshire is a toss-up.

In other words, Obama is looking much stronger in the states Democrats have relied on in the past two close elections while appearing to make real inroads in traditional Republican states and competing very well in big swing states like Ohio. It’s early. All polls are snapshots in time and the practice of “averaging” poll results from different polling organizations with different methodologies is not close to being scientific. But it’s instructive to look at both the broader and state-by state information to get a true sense of the race. And at this point, it’s hard to argue that Obama does not have a clear lead. (Caveat: The Real Clear Politics polling averages include data from many polls, including some note used or recognized by CBS News).


Around The Track

Obama’s campaign says it raised $52 million in June and has $72 million in the bank. The DNC has $20 million cash-on-hand, CBS News reports, which puts the total amount at $92 million. For all the success of Obama’s fundraising, that puts him just short of the nearly $95 million the McCain campaign and RNC reports having. Still, it’s as competitive as Democrats have been on the fundraising front in a long time.

Al Gore stayed mum during the Democratic primary but he bursts back onto the stage with a major speech in Washington today on climate change and the energy crisis. Gore will challenge the nation to produce all of its energy through wind, sun and other “Earth-friendly” means, according to the AP.

Former Bush adviser Karl Rove says both candidates may be missing an opportunity to lead on the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae front: “Elections are often reshaped by unexpected and fast-moving events, and when this happens a candidate who quickly takes the lead on the new issue can bolster his chances to win,” Rove writes in his Wall Street Journal column. “An opportunity awaits Messrs. McCain and Obama. Will either man seize it?”

Obama’s trip overseas will be covered intensely by some of the media heavyweights, reports the New York Times. That provides him an opportunity but also poses the risk that any missteps on the world stage could be amplified greatly.