Cars Should Reach 45 MPG by 2020, says Consumer Group

Can carmakers absorb a fuel economy standard of 45 miles per gallon by 2020? The Consumer Federation of America (CFA) thinks they can handle it, and should start preparing for it now.

At a press conference Tuesday, CFA's research director, Mark Cooper, said that, given the lengthy ramp-up time for new models, the Environmental Protection Agency should be sending the auto industry signals that it plans to regulate tailpipes beyond the 35.5 mpg standard that will be in place by 2016.

"The industry needs to plan, in 2017 and after, for a more aggressive regime of increasing greenhouse gas/fuel economy rules," Cooper said, adding that the public supports stronger rules. "The 2002 to 2005 data shows that people had a willingness to pay for more fuel efficiency even when gas prices were low," he said. "Consumers have been steadfast in their support for higher standards."

Cooper says he's just being helpful. "Looking out ahead 10 to 20 years is actually very helpful to the industry, and gets them on a path to a long-term future," he said. Automakers, it's true, have said consistently that what they want is a single national standard with plenty of lead time. Having said that, they would probably add that 45 mpg is a pretty tough mark.

But Charles Territo, a spokesman for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, is being cautiously optimistic. "As soon as the regulations for 2016 are final, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration [NHTSA] and EPA will begin the process for setting standards for 2017 and beyond," he said. "After taking into account a number of factors including future product plans, technological feasibility, cost, etc., [they] will determine the appropriate standards. We encourage CFA and all stakeholders to be part of the process."

CFA is apparently worried that NHTSA (an arm of the industry-friendly Department of Transportation) is too inclined to consider factors such as future product plans, and calls on the EPA to take the lead on setting future standards.

"The EPA is mandated to protect public health," Cooper said, "and is not constrained in respect to the plans of the automakers. NHTSA has listened to what they automakers say they can do, which can be a self-fulfilling prophecy that results in inefficient cars. The EPA has the ability to be technology forcing--it can point industry in a better direction."

Territo says that the Obama administration spelled out NHTSA's participation when it laid out the rules last May. "DOT's expertise is invaluable to the standard-setting process," he said.

Jack Gillis, author of The Car Book and CFA's spokesman, claims that Asian manufacturers are beating their American competitors on fuel economy. "Our analysis of model offerings show Asian manufacturers offering nearly twice as many 2010 vehicles getting 30 mph and above than U.S. companies."

Together, says Territo, carmakers offer almost 200 cars and trucks that get 30 mpg or better, but that figure is for highway mileage alone--and includes foreign as well as domestic manufacturers.