What Will Be The Next Big Defense Contracts?

Now that Secretary Robert Gates has announced his plans for the next few years of defense spending it is worthwhile to review the changes to the services plans and the next possible big system contracts out there.

Air Force -- The Air Force lost the F-22 and the Airborne Laser (ABL) missile defense system. To make up for the end of the F-22 full rate production the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) will have its production accelerated. The Predator Unmanned Aeriel Vehicle (UAV) which conducts reconnaissance and precision strike missions will also see its numbers grow. The Predator is operated by the Air Force and the CIA. Since this is the Defense Department one assumes that these will go to the U.S.A.F. The Air Force likes its pilots in a cockpit not in front of a computer terminal back on the ground so that may not seem a positive for them. The B-1 follow on has been delayed as well. Congress may continue to add C-17 transports as they have done in the past year despite Gates' intention to end the production of those.

In future work the Air Force also has the KC-X tanker to award next year again. Boeing and EADS are the only competitors for that contract. There is still an opportunity for a split award but that is considered inefficient by many. The CSAR-X rescue helicopter was canceled, despite the second attempt at awarding that contract after successful protests.

Army -- The Army lost the vehicle portion of the Future Combat Systems (FCS). This means the UAV and the data links will continue. Congress may keep the N-LOS cannon which is almost ready to enter production. The Army will need to look at how the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) fleet that they have purchased along with the upcoming MRAP-ATV and JLTV contracts will fit into their new mix of heavy -- light vehicles. The Styrker Interim Combat Brigades will have to be reviewed and a decision made on whether to expand that program or invest in some sort of replacement program.

Navy -- The Navy will end the DDG-1000 program at three ships, but the DDG-51 line will be restarted to make up for the end of the new DDG. The next cruiser has been canceled. One of the new aircraft carriers, CVN-78 Gerald Ford, is under construction but Gates' didn't commit to any more and said that the operational fleet will be reduced to ten instead of the current twelve. The Navy also lost the VH-71 Presidential Transport helicopter program. This was having serious cost and schedule problems for a variety of reasons. Of course there will eventually have to be new ships designed and built as well as a replacement for the current fleet of Presidential helicopters. These will have to be started at sometime in the next several years.

Missile Defense Agency (MDA) -- This agency lost close to twenty percent of its budget with the ABL and decision not to invest in any more interceptors for the Mid-Course Ground Based System. MDA also lost a great deal of R&D funding. Some money will be channeled to the Army managed THAAD program as well as the Navy's AEGIS based one. These though while protecting a large area don't cover whole continents like the Mid-Course is supposed to do. There may be eventually further investment into this system.

There were also some programs out there that hadn't started yet -- like the Air Force's to replace its venerable UH-1 helicopter fleet. This may still go ahead or not. Until the full budget comes out next month things like that won't be known. Unless the Obama administration is planning on starving the Pentagon of new development and systems like in the Seventies and Nineties then even though several major programs were canceled there will be at some point a need for investment in the production of more advanced systems then currently used.