India Ponders Changing its Climate Rhetoric

There have only been a handful of blocks to a new international climate agreement. One is that the United States has been slow to pass climate legislation; another is that China and India, the two largest of the world's developing economies, argue that they should not have to limit their own emissions, an idea developed countries resist.

So what will happen if one of those primary actors, India, suddenly reverses its position?

Although there's nothing official yet from the government, the Times of India is reporting that environment minister Jairam Ramesh is privately advocating an about-face that would give up demands of new technology and assistance and offer firm emissions cuts. More from the Times:

Ramesh argues for a deviation from the Kyoto Protocol under which only the developed countries -- listed in Annexure 1 -- are required to take obligations for emission cuts, saying that it would also help in a better alignment with the US. "We must welcome initiatives to bring the US into the mainstream.."

In his letter, Ramesh emphasizes his concern about India being seen as a bugbear for the developed countries in the climate negotiations. "India must listen more and speak less in negotiations" as its stance is "disfavoured by the developed countries, small island states and vulnerable countries. It takes away from India's aspirations for permanent membership of the Security Council."

But the point of changing stances would not be motivated by altruism. Departing from its old arguments would put India in a new leadership position, and as the letter points out, bring a place in the United Nations Security Council within grasp.

Not incidentally, a shift in policy would also set India apart of and ahead of its occasional rival China, something that could likely be accomplished without agreeing to particularly stringent emissions controls.

Climate legislation is definitely a changing landscape; Ramesh's advice to his government recalls the sudden change of heart had by Republican Sen. Lindsay Graham, who recently decided to support climate legislation in the U.S.
As with Lindsay, a total reversal doesn't seem to be in the cards for India, but there's still room for significant modification of its rhetoric. The window in India could act begins soon, with an important G77 meeting beginning in a few days and the Copenhagen climate summit taking place in December.