Could a Math Error Boost Obama Plans For Clean Coal?

Could a math error boost Obama administration plans to build futuristic coal-fired power plants that capture and store their own carbon dioxide emissions?

A recent Congressional Budget Office analysis found that the DOE last year miscalculated the ultimate cost of the so-called FutureGen project, causing the agency to scrap it after sinking $174 million into the project.

FutureGen was deemed key to DOE's efforts to promote a more advanced form of clean coal technology that tackles CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, as well as emissions that contribute to acid rain and smog. The new thinking is that cost-effectively capturing and storing CO2 is needed to ensure that abundant, low-cost coal resources remain part of the U.S. energy mix.

The CBO study showed that the DOE erred in almost doubling the cost estimate for FutureGen to $1.8 billion. DOE incorrectly compared two cost estimates for the original FutureGen -- DOE's own inflation-adjusted $950 million estimate and a $1.8 billion nominal forecast by DOE's industry partners.

That might seem positive for the Obama team's plans for climate-friendly coal-fired power. Those plans include a campaign pledge to build five such plants.

But the reality is that such advanced coal-fired power plants will be expensive no matter how you do the math. New Energy Secretary Steven Chu says FutureGen now could cost as much as $2.3 billion. Even before FutureGen cost estimates started to soar, a 2007 DOE study found that such advanced power plants would produce electricity costing 65 percent more than conventional coal-fired power plants.

Given the pushback Obama is already getting over the costs of his ambitious energy agenda amid a crippled economy, this good news/bad news on clean coal won't make it any easier.