February 11, 2009 5:37 PM
Here Come The Polls
Dotty Lynch is CBSNews.com's Political Points columnist. E-mail your questions and comments to Political Points.
There is an old canard that polls at this point in a Presidential campaign are meaningless, that all they measure is name recognition. But in reality, polls about '08 Presidential choices which have come out in the last few weeks are filled with meaning.
The people who are leading today may not be the eventual nominees of their parties, although frontrunners like George W. Bush have been successful in driving others out of the race by parlaying frontrunner status into endorsements and cash.
Similarly, it would be a mistake to conclude that the candidates who have only an asterisk next to their names are fated for oblivion. Just ask Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton about that.
But for candidates planning their campaigns, and reporters who want to understand the political environment, the early polls do offer a fascinating view of where the electorate is at the beginning of a campaign season.
Journalists use polls to describe and analyze the voters; campaigns commission them to formulate strategy. To paraphrase Bobby Kennedy, campaigns don't use polls to ask why - they use polls to figure out why not.
Here are some tidbits from the recent polls that test the conventional wisdom (CW) about the candidates and provide their strategists with enough work to keep them off the street during the holiday season:
1. CW says: John McCain, the maverick, will appeal to Republican voters seeking change.
The recent (November 9-12) Cook Report/ RT Strategies poll shows that McCain still does better with Independents than with traditional Republicans but his support skews old. Among 18-34 year old Republican primary voters, he trails former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani by 34% to 15%.
Even when voters were asked to pick a first and second choice, only 31% of these younger GOP primary voters picked McCain while 52% chose Giuliani. McCain's age could be a factor — he is 70 and in 2008 would be the oldest first term President ever elected — although this may not be the complete explanation.
In a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll conducted December 5 and 6, 17% of young voters said they thought McCain's age would interfere with his ability to serve effectively as president, although 16% of voters over 65 believed that as well.
McCain's advisors say they are not particularly worried about the fact that his vote skews old because the Republican primary electorate skews old as well. But for a candidate who promises a new way of doing business, these polls are a wake-up call that he has work to do to convince the natural constituency for that pitch: young voters.
2. CW: Giuliani is popular with Republicans because they are looking for a moderate.
Giuliani's "voters" as he begins to look at the race tend to be traditional Republicans and conservatives who appear to be attracted to him because of his performance after 9/11 and possibly because of his crimefighter image.
In the Cook/RT Strategies poll he receives 28% of votes of Republicans to 24% for McCain while Independents who say they will vote in a Republican primary pick McCain 31% to 18% for Giuliani. Conservatives split evenly, 25% Giuliani and 24% for McCain although when first AND second choices are given, Giuliani beats McCain 47% to 37% among conservatives.
This may reflect McCain's ongoing struggle to convince the Republican base that he is really one of them following his 2000 campaign blast at the religious right.
Giuliani's opponents are counting on the fact that many conservatives may peel off when they discover the former mayor supports abortion, gay rights and gun control, although as of now, only 11% of Republicans believe Giuliani's positions on issues are too liberal.. McCain and Giuliani are tied with moderates, 24% McCain to 25% for Giuliani.
3. CW: Mitt Romney's Mormonism is going to be a huge problem for him with voters.
This one could be correct. Despite the fact that Romney was elected twice in the heavily Catholic state of Massachusetts, 52% of Republican insiders say his Mormonism will hurt him in the election. The Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll showed that 32% of voters say they are less likely to vote for a Mormon compared to 9% who say it would make their support more likely - a net deficit of 23 points.
There is a lack of familiarity with Mormonism, only 53% know that Mormons are Christians, and 25% believe Mormons hold "unconventional beliefs." The Romney campaign has its work cut out for it but the problem may not be insurmountable with the voters who will measure specific candidates not just their cultural ties.
4. CW: Hillary Clinton can't win.
Recent polls already show her virtually tied with McCain among general election voters. The Cook/RT Strategies poll has her at 42% and McCain at 46%. She tops McCain with women 47% to 40% though he trounces her among male voters 49% to 36%. And among those pesky voters, 18-34, Clinton runs slightly ahead of McCain 46% to 42%.
In a recent Gallup poll where they asked voters to name things they like and dislike about candidates Clinton's negatives outran her positives by 50% to 37%. But her advantage is that the qualities voters like about her are leadership qualities: strength, intelligence and capability. Her negatives tend to be personality-related ("power-hungry," general dislike") and her association with Bill Clinton (too much baggage, riding on her husbands coattails, etc).
While three-quarters of Democratic insiders think another Democrat would be stronger than Clinton (though there is no consensus on who that would be), only 37% of Democratic voters say they worry that she will lose if nominated. As for being a woman, if the polls were taken at face value, that is a net plus of 9 points (21% more likely, 12% less likely to vote for a woman.)
5. CW: Barack Obama is too inexperienced.
Obama's only overt negative now is inexperience but for well-educated Democrats, in particular, that may not be a big problem. In trial heats among those voters - even before the current burst of Obama-mania – the senator from Illinois was almost tied with Hillary Clinton (28% to 27%).
Younger Democrats may also be ready to "turn the page." Clinton and Obama are about even among 18-34 year olds (Clinton 34% to Obama's 31%.) African Americans tilt a little Clinton's way right now, 34% for Clinton to 28% for Obama.
The new polls provide some insight as to why some Republicans have started referring to the Illinois Democrat as Barack Hussein Obama. Forty-five percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for a Muslim candidate. No, Obama isn't a Muslim (he is a member of the Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago), but his father, Barack Hussein Obama Sr., was a Muslim for a while.
Obama has joked about his hard luck having a name that sounded a lot like Osama and that he hoped that was offset by Chicago's Irish voters who perhaps thought his name was O'Bama. He deep-sixed his nickname Barry a while ago but his campaign has to deal with the rest of his name. (Note to spell check: Yes, it is Obama, not Osama). As for the impact of his being an African American, polls show a net plus of 10 points (17% more likely, 7% less likely.)
Ready or not, Campaign '08 and its accompanying Poll-O-Rama have begun. Lucky for Tom Cruise, he isn't running. The Fox Poll that measured attitudes toward Mormons and Muslims also found 53% said they'd be less likely to vote for a Scientologist.
There is an old canard that polls at this point in a Presidential campaign are meaningless, that all they measure is name recognition. But in reality, polls about '08 Presidential choices which have come out in the last few weeks are filled with meaning.
The people who are leading today may not be the eventual nominees of their parties, although frontrunners like George W. Bush have been successful in driving others out of the race by parlaying frontrunner status into endorsements and cash.
Similarly, it would be a mistake to conclude that the candidates who have only an asterisk next to their names are fated for oblivion. Just ask Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton about that.
But for candidates planning their campaigns, and reporters who want to understand the political environment, the early polls do offer a fascinating view of where the electorate is at the beginning of a campaign season.
Journalists use polls to describe and analyze the voters; campaigns commission them to formulate strategy. To paraphrase Bobby Kennedy, campaigns don't use polls to ask why - they use polls to figure out why not.
Here are some tidbits from the recent polls that test the conventional wisdom (CW) about the candidates and provide their strategists with enough work to keep them off the street during the holiday season:
1. CW says: John McCain, the maverick, will appeal to Republican voters seeking change.
The recent (November 9-12) Cook Report/ RT Strategies poll shows that McCain still does better with Independents than with traditional Republicans but his support skews old. Among 18-34 year old Republican primary voters, he trails former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani by 34% to 15%.
Even when voters were asked to pick a first and second choice, only 31% of these younger GOP primary voters picked McCain while 52% chose Giuliani. McCain's age could be a factor — he is 70 and in 2008 would be the oldest first term President ever elected — although this may not be the complete explanation.
In a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll conducted December 5 and 6, 17% of young voters said they thought McCain's age would interfere with his ability to serve effectively as president, although 16% of voters over 65 believed that as well.
McCain's advisors say they are not particularly worried about the fact that his vote skews old because the Republican primary electorate skews old as well. But for a candidate who promises a new way of doing business, these polls are a wake-up call that he has work to do to convince the natural constituency for that pitch: young voters.
2. CW: Giuliani is popular with Republicans because they are looking for a moderate.
Giuliani's "voters" as he begins to look at the race tend to be traditional Republicans and conservatives who appear to be attracted to him because of his performance after 9/11 and possibly because of his crimefighter image.
In the Cook/RT Strategies poll he receives 28% of votes of Republicans to 24% for McCain while Independents who say they will vote in a Republican primary pick McCain 31% to 18% for Giuliani. Conservatives split evenly, 25% Giuliani and 24% for McCain although when first AND second choices are given, Giuliani beats McCain 47% to 37% among conservatives.
This may reflect McCain's ongoing struggle to convince the Republican base that he is really one of them following his 2000 campaign blast at the religious right.
Giuliani's opponents are counting on the fact that many conservatives may peel off when they discover the former mayor supports abortion, gay rights and gun control, although as of now, only 11% of Republicans believe Giuliani's positions on issues are too liberal.. McCain and Giuliani are tied with moderates, 24% McCain to 25% for Giuliani.
3. CW: Mitt Romney's Mormonism is going to be a huge problem for him with voters.
This one could be correct. Despite the fact that Romney was elected twice in the heavily Catholic state of Massachusetts, 52% of Republican insiders say his Mormonism will hurt him in the election. The Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll showed that 32% of voters say they are less likely to vote for a Mormon compared to 9% who say it would make their support more likely - a net deficit of 23 points.
There is a lack of familiarity with Mormonism, only 53% know that Mormons are Christians, and 25% believe Mormons hold "unconventional beliefs." The Romney campaign has its work cut out for it but the problem may not be insurmountable with the voters who will measure specific candidates not just their cultural ties.
4. CW: Hillary Clinton can't win.
Recent polls already show her virtually tied with McCain among general election voters. The Cook/RT Strategies poll has her at 42% and McCain at 46%. She tops McCain with women 47% to 40% though he trounces her among male voters 49% to 36%. And among those pesky voters, 18-34, Clinton runs slightly ahead of McCain 46% to 42%.
In a recent Gallup poll where they asked voters to name things they like and dislike about candidates Clinton's negatives outran her positives by 50% to 37%. But her advantage is that the qualities voters like about her are leadership qualities: strength, intelligence and capability. Her negatives tend to be personality-related ("power-hungry," general dislike") and her association with Bill Clinton (too much baggage, riding on her husbands coattails, etc).
While three-quarters of Democratic insiders think another Democrat would be stronger than Clinton (though there is no consensus on who that would be), only 37% of Democratic voters say they worry that she will lose if nominated. As for being a woman, if the polls were taken at face value, that is a net plus of 9 points (21% more likely, 12% less likely to vote for a woman.)
5. CW: Barack Obama is too inexperienced.
Obama's only overt negative now is inexperience but for well-educated Democrats, in particular, that may not be a big problem. In trial heats among those voters - even before the current burst of Obama-mania – the senator from Illinois was almost tied with Hillary Clinton (28% to 27%).
Younger Democrats may also be ready to "turn the page." Clinton and Obama are about even among 18-34 year olds (Clinton 34% to Obama's 31%.) African Americans tilt a little Clinton's way right now, 34% for Clinton to 28% for Obama.
The new polls provide some insight as to why some Republicans have started referring to the Illinois Democrat as Barack Hussein Obama. Forty-five percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for a Muslim candidate. No, Obama isn't a Muslim (he is a member of the Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago), but his father, Barack Hussein Obama Sr., was a Muslim for a while.
Obama has joked about his hard luck having a name that sounded a lot like Osama and that he hoped that was offset by Chicago's Irish voters who perhaps thought his name was O'Bama. He deep-sixed his nickname Barry a while ago but his campaign has to deal with the rest of his name. (Note to spell check: Yes, it is Obama, not Osama). As for the impact of his being an African American, polls show a net plus of 10 points (17% more likely, 7% less likely.)
Ready or not, Campaign '08 and its accompanying Poll-O-Rama have begun. Lucky for Tom Cruise, he isn't running. The Fox Poll that measured attitudes toward Mormons and Muslims also found 53% said they'd be less likely to vote for a Scientologist.
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