For Nevada, Caucuses A Roll Of The Dice

This story was written by CBSNews.com political reporter Brian Montopoli.

And maybe, by now, caucusing is easy in Iowa. Residents there have grown used to the political circus that descends on their state every four years, have become versed in the ins and outs of a voting system in which an average citizen is expected to grasp such concepts as a "viability threshold."

It's a different story in Nevada. Four years ago, the Nevada caucuses were an afterthought: They came late in the voting calendar, by which time John Kerry had already locked up the Democratic nomination. Just 9,000 Democrats bothered to caucus in 2004, and that was a record.

But thanks in part to the efforts of the state's influential senator, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Nevada is now, for the Democrats, the third significant nominating contest in the nation. Voters can go to caucus meetings on Saturday with a newfound political relevance, an opportunity to have a significant say in who becomes the Democratic nominee for president.

Now, if they can just figure out what a caucus is.

"The general education as to what a caucus is isn't there in Nevada," says former Iowa Democratic Party Executive Director Jean Hessberg, who is overseeing Nevada's Democratic caucuses. "We have to educate voters as to that concept."

The state's Democratic party has held more than 300 mock caucuses, or "mockuses," where they offer advice on how to caucus - as well as pizza. They have sent out mailers, posted messages on billboards, and run ads encouraging Nevadans to participate. 20 percent of the state's population is Hispanic, and the party has gone to Hispanic festivals to register voters and educate them about how a caucus works.

"There's not even a word in Spanish for caucus," says Nevada Democratic Party spokeswoman Kirsten Searer.

In 2004, Nevada had just 17 caucus locations, according to Hessberg. This year they will have 1,754. The state Democratic party is hoping for about 10 percent participation - that's considered pretty good in caucuses, where turnout is lower than it is in primaries. That would mean about 40,000 Democrats will caucus, though some estimate that 60,000 or more could come out. Reid has suggested 100,000 Democrats might show up.

"This is unknown territory - we've never done something like this before," says Las Vegas-based journalist and pundit Jon Ralston. He says the parties have done a good job preparing for the caucuses, but the logistical challenge of attempting something of this magnitude for the first time means problems are likely.

"The question is whether or not problems will rise to the level of bringing results into question," says Ralston.

While higher-than-expected turnout could cause headaches, it's not the primary concern of the Nevada Democratic Party, according to UNLV Political Scientist Kenneth Fernandez.

"They're worried about low turnout, they're not worried about high turnout," says Fernandez. "If it's a bust and only 20,000 people show up, people will say, 'does Nevada deserve that spot as number three when they have so few people involved in the process?'"

Democratic Party consultant Jenny Backus, a former spokesperson for Reid, says that because of its diverse population, union presence, and environmental issues, "Nevada was most logical choice for the party to promote as the true voice of the West."

Backus argues that the decision to move the caucuses up in the primary calendar has had the desired effect, pointing to the Democratic candidates' visits to Nevada, the two nationally televised debates that took place in the state, and the fact that the national press is paying attention.

Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama are closely bunched atop polls of Nevada Democrats. Obama has the support of the 60,000 member Culinary Workers Union, an endorsement that could have a significant impact because the caucus system means union members must vote out in the open. A caucus is essentially a neighborhood meeting in which one of the activities is to state which candidate you prefer to be your party's nominee.

"There's already anecdotal evidence of immense pressure from within the union to caucus for Obama or else," says Ralston. "There's enormous pressure not to defy the union. These are working class people who are probably worried about their jobs."

After the Culinary Workers Union endorsed Obama, the 29,000 member Nevada teachers union unsuccessfully sued to have nine workplace caucus locations in the Las Vegas casino district closed down. While the teachers union has not endorsed a candidate, "they've informally endorsed" Clinton, according to Fernandez.

"The teachers union is not as big as the culinary union, but teachers' members aren't working that day," says Dan Hart, a Democratic lobbyist who is an advisor to the teachers union. "They vote at a higher percentage than the general population, they can understand the process, and they're used to being involved in things like this."

Most of the GOP candidates have ignored Nevada in favor of other key early states, including South Carolina, where Republicans also vote on Saturday. Unlike the Democrats, Nevada Republicans cannot register with their party on the day of the caucuses, and turnout is expected to be lower on the Republican side than it is for the Democrats.

Mitt Romney is the only major Republican candidate to have made Nevada a part of his campaign strategy, and the former Massachusetts governor campaigned in the state this week. A recent Reno Gazette-Journal poll showed Romney trailing John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Mike Huckabee in the state. Other polls show Romney leading, however, and he is expected to get a boost on caucus day from Nevada's Mormon population. Ron Paul, the only candidate to run television ads in Nevada, could also have a strong showing, thanks in part to the small number of Republicans expected to caucus and the dedication of his supporters.

The wildcard in the Nevada race could be Hispanic voters, many of whom are members of the culinary union. The campaigns and the state parties have been doing Hispanic outreach, but the group does not traditionally turn out in high numbers. "In the past they have not been as influential as their numbers suggest they could be," Fernandez says.
By Brian Montopoli