What is a "January thaw?" And what does it mean for Minnesota's winter weather?
Right on time, the January thaw has made it to Minnesota as high temperatures the last several days have climbed above freezing.
"We're more likely to have a January thaw than a white Christmas. 82% of the time we'll have a January thaw," said Pete Boulay, a climatologist with Minnesota's DNR.
By definition, a January thaw is when high temperatures climb above 32 degrees for at least two consecutive days. And Boulay said that has happened in the Twin Cities every single January for the last 15 in a row.
"Last year, we had six days in a row with that 52 degrees. A year before that, we had a stretch of 24 days that went through mid-February. So in recent years, we've had some monster January thaws," he said.
That 24-day stretch in 2024 is currently the record longest January thaw in the Twin Cities. Boulay said there is some science behind the phenomenon.
"The jet stream is very active, and we have lots of fast moving weather systems. Having that kind of high variability and the weather systems moving through, you're going to get some warm pushes too with that," he said.
Add climate change into the mix and Boulay said January is the fastest warming month in Minnesota — an impact that can easily snowball into even warmer winters.
"If you don't have snow cover, that changes everything. The deeper the snow, the colder you are. If we lose our snow pack, kind of feeds upon itself, we get warmer," he explained.
But snow lovers, don't fear. As we all know, there is plenty more winter left to go.
"We've always had a January thaw in our climate, so it's nice to have a little break once in a while. You know? It gives you a chance to clear that driveway, the sidewalks, and get ready for the next snowstorm."