Snow accumulations possible in Denver with post-Thanksgiving cold snap in Colorado
Confidence continues to increase that a winter storm will bring the first snow of the season to Denver and many areas across Colorado's Front Range soon.
There will be no impact on Coloradans' Thanksgiving plans, but the days afterwards could be a different story.
This will be the first storm of the season where we have plenty of cold air in place to support snow. So far, it has been just a few degrees too warm.
Pacific NW storm mixes with cold Arctic air
The big weekend change will get rolling with a one-two punch Friday night storm system will spin in quickly followed by a blast of polar air plunging into the nations mid-section.
By Sunday and Monday morning, wind chill temperatures will be subzero for portions of the Eastern Plains and Front Range.
High temperatures on Saturday, Sunday and Monday will stay below freezing, with overnight lows in the single digits and teens across Colorado.
This is a quick shot of cold air, with highs on Tuesday returning to the 40s.
Cold air + moisture = snow?
For the first time this season, we have a storm coinciding with cold air already in place.
So far this November, we have had two rainmakers in Denver and the Eastern Plains with temperatures hovering around 35 degrees, just too warm for widespread snow.
As of now, it is possible two waves of snow will push across Colorado. The first arrives Friday night into Saturday morning. This round looks to be quick-moving and relatively light. A stronger wave of energy could possibly bring widespread snow at some point Sunday afternoon/evening into Monday. This is where weather models are split, and this is when there's the potential for heavier snow accumulations.
At this range, we (meteorologists) use something called ensembles to get an idea of:
- How likely accumulating snow is, and
- The magnitude of the potential event.
Weather ensemble models run the same forecast many different ways to show a range of possible outcomes. Instead of one solution, they provide probabilities and confidence levels, helping clarify storm tracks, temperatures, and snowfall potential.
As of now, ensembles show a 70–80% chance of at least an inch of snow across the Front Range. There is a 30–50% chance of at least 3 inches. While things still have plenty of time to change, ensembles are currently favoring a 1–3"/2–5" type storm.
Denver nearing record for latest first snow
The latest first snow in Denver was December 10, 2021.
As of now, Denver still has not seen its first snow. If the storm on Saturday produces measurable snow, as expected, 2025 will officially finish as the second-latest first snow in Denver's history.