How much rain does Denver actually need to erase the drought?

Denver has picked up some much-needed rain and snow this spring, but the city is still running well behind for the water year and it's keeping us in a drought.

The water year starts Oct. 1. This is what meteorologists use to track precipitation from the start of the cold season through the following spring and summer.

At Denver International Airport, 3.13 inches of precipitation has fallen so far this water year. Normal through this point is 6.55 inches.

That leaves Denver 3.42 inches behind schedule.

3.42 inches is important because it shows how deep the deficit still is. Denver would need more than an average May of precipitation just to catch up to normal for this point in the water year. May is Denver's wettest month on average, with 2.16 inches of precipitation. July is second at 2.14 inches, followed by June at 1.94 inches.

With that said, Denver is heading into its wettest stretch of the year, but the city is not just looking for normal moisture from here on out. It needs extra moisture to make up for what was missed during the winter and early spring.

Rain in Denver helps. It improves soil moisture, lowers fire danger in the short term, and can reduce outdoor watering demand. But drought recovery depends on more than one rain gauge at Denver International Airport. Mountain snowpack, runoff, reservoir storage, soil moisture, and where the precipitation actually falls all matter.

The challenge is that Denver is playing catch-up. Normal rain from here on out would help, but it would not erase the deficit by itself. To truly close the gap, Denver needs the wettest part of the year to overperform.