Southern Colorado braces for widespread drought by summer

It is that time of year in Colorado when we begin to examine drought conditions and snowpack data to gauge what the wildfire season might be like in the summer.

Based on historical drought impacts, abnormally dry (yellow) to moderate drought conditions (tan) are sufficient to increase the likelihood of wildfires.

Currently, a significant portion of the high country and the extreme northern parts of the I-25 corridor are experiencing drought. This affects approximately 613,900 Colorado residents, a number that is expected to rise rapidly over the next month or two.

Drought conditions are anticipated to continue in areas currently affected and are expected to spread throughout the entire southern half of the state. On the map below, brown signifies that drought conditions will persist, while yellow indicates areas where drought conditions are projected to emerge.

Looking ahead, the Climate Prediction Center anticipates a hot and dry spring. The current outlook for April, May, and June suggests a below-average precipitation probability, ranging from 33% to 60%. Temperature probabilities indicate a 33% to 60% chance of above-average temperatures, with the likelihood increasing as you near the southwest corner of the state.

After analyzing all this data, I'd say the situation looks concerning across Southern Colorado and the high country, with spring expected to be bone-dry. Wildfire potential is something we'll need to monitor very closely.