Why are the Patriots a betting favorite to land Lamar Jackson?

BOSTON -- The situation with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore is not all that good.

The situation with Mac Jones in New England isn't that bad, especially with the QB still on his cheap rookie contract. But it admittedly may not be great, either.

It stands to reason, then, that in a simple scenario, the Patriots could and would be very much in play to go after Lamar Jackson if he (or his team) decides it's time to leave the Ravens.

That simple situation might explain why the Patriots are considered among the betting favorites -- or in at least one spot, the betting favorites -- to employ Lamar Jackson next season. From a football perspective ... sure, why not?

But NFL roster management is not so simple, and with the looming likelihood of a franchise tag, a massive payment in a trade, and a massive salary demanded by Jackson, the Patriots would seemingly be the least likely possibility for the 26-year-old quarterback.

Considering that Jackson has been playing hardball with the Ravens to the point of missing a playoff game, it's clear that the quarterback knows his market value and expects to earn that massive payday this coming spring. The Ravens have shown a clear hesitancy to give him the guarantees that he wants -- and his 10 missed games and 33-20 TD-to-INT ratio over the past two years show that they're likely being prudent with their caution -- so it's very possible that their relationship is fractured beyond repair.

But that doesn't mean the Ravens are just going to let him leave without getting anything in return.

And if the Ravens read the situation a certain way and place the non-exclusive franchise tag on Jackson, then any team that signs him would have to send two first-round picks to Baltimore to complete that deal.

That alone should eliminate the Patriots from the picture, as 20-plus years of Bill Belichick's operation should make it quite clear that the Patriots won't be forking over two first-round picks. That would be true almost all of the time, but it's especially true when the Patriots have some clear holes that need to be filled with their 14th overall pick in this year's draft. 

A less likely option for the Ravens would be the transition tag, which would give them the right to match any offer made to Jackson by another team. If that tag were applied, the Patriots -- and any other team making a run -- would run the risk of negotiating a deal with no guarantee of actually acquiring the player. The knowledge that the Ravens could and would be simply using that tag as a way of setting a specific market on Jackson would almost certainly prevent teams from making real runs at signing Jackson.

Outside of that, the Ravens could use the exclusive franchise tag on Jackson, negotiate a trade with a team, and then have Jackson agree to that trade and then sign the franchise tender. The cost for that trade is anyone's guess, but considering a 33-year-old Russell Wilson netted Seattle two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-round pick and three players last year ... the cost for Jackson in a trade would be high. Very high.

Really, it makes little to no sense that the Patriots -- a team that places an extremely high value on draft picks, and a team that has never wanted to dole out top money for a quarterback, even when the quarterback was Tom Brady -- would be considered in line to make a run at Jackson.

(There are performance and durability concerns that could surely enter the equation, too. But given all of the hurdles in the way of even evaluating those matters, it's not really worth going that far.)

Now, could the Patriots shed their decades of caution and decide to go all in on Jackson? One supposes it's possible. Belichick may have one last zag in him while the world expects him to zig.

But a favorite to land a player with that cost? It seems like an unwise bet.