WEATHER BLOG: Frigid Temps Ahead; Refreezing A Concern

As of early this morning, a cold front is passing through eastern New York, extending northward into New England and southward into the Mid-Atlantic. Any lingering precipitation will edge off the Atlantic coast early this morning. Drier air will quickly filter in behind it later this morning and clouds will break for some sunshine. Temperature forecasting will be a challenge today with a couple of factors at play: (1) a fresh snow pack (inhibiting warming), (2) cold air advection (inhibiting warmer), and (3) a downsloping flow (promoting warmer). Hi-res ECMWF products are by far the mildest…and given previous success, will hedge toward milder numbers, but not all the way considering other mitigating circumstances.

Thereafter, arctic air will quickly filter into the region, making for a cold start Monday as high pressure expands from the Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. High pressure will slide across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast on Tuesday. Variable early-day winds will shift to the south and southwest during the afternoon as another front approaches from the Great Lakes region.