Last Updated Oct 19, 2009 3:32 PM EDT
Even drugs that have made it to market have not done well. IMS Health, which tracks prescriptions, estimates combined sales of obesity drugs last year at only $173 million in the United States.That's the revenue history. So what are the predictions? Unsurprisingly, they're not so modest. Depending on what you read, they range from $1 billion to $10 billion. Here's a summary:
- Adam Cutler, analyst at Canaccord Adams, believes there should be room for all three because grabbing just 1% of the overall market will translate to more than $1 billion a year in sales for any one drug.
- Michael Murphy: Half the market would mean roughly $3 billion in sales for Arena in three years...Orexigen also would have a blockbuster in Contrave if they got 25% of the market, or $1.5 billion in sales in three years.
The situation with Vivus is no different. Qnexa should be the third blockbuster in the group, also bringing in $1.5 billion in three years.
- RTTNews: The market for anti-obesity drugs is virtually untapped and continues to hold a glittering allure. Till date there has been no 'silver bullet' remedy for obesity. Analysts estimate that the potential market for obesity drug ranges from $5 billion to $10 billion per year.