Week ahead: Will Greece prevent Dow 13,000?
You didn't think that European leaders would allow us to enjoy our President's Day, did you? While U.S. markets are closed on Monday, Eurozone finance ministers will weigh the second Greek bailout package, worth $172 billion. Now that the Greek Parliament has passed austerity measures, there's still the pesky issue of oversight and the big question: How exactly can Greece reduce its debt burden from the current 160 percent, to 120 percent of economic output by 2020?
Investors have already cast their votes: Greece will get the money, so let's get back to the stock rally. Don't look now, but U.S. stocks are up 24 percent from October lows. The Dow stands at four-year highs and is within just 50 points of the next psychological threshold, 13,000. The S&P 500 has gained 8.2 percent this year and is within whispers of taking back all of those awful losses sustained since June 2008. The NASDAQ is nearing its highest level in a decade, helped in large part by Apple, which closed above $500 and is up 60 percent since last summer. According to Barclay's Capital, Apple has also improved fourth quarter earnings for the entire S&P 500. With Apple, earnings growth for S&P 500 companies is 6.7 percent, but without it, the results would drop to 2.9 percent.
-- DJIA: 12,949, up 1.1% on week, up 6% on year (highest close since May 19, 2008)
-- S&P 500: 1,361, up 1.4%, up 8.2% on year (highest close since April 29, 2011)
-- NASDAQ: 2,951, up 1.6%, up 13.3% on year
-- March Crude Oil: $103.24, up 4.6% on week
-- April Gold: $1,725.90 up .07% on the week
-- AAA National Average Price for Gallon of Regular Gas: $3.54
FACTOIDS OF THE WEEK: Add these 10 Euro/Greece dates to your calendar!
1. February 20-21: Eurozone finance ministers meet in Brussels to discuss Greek bailout
2. February 25: Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Mexico City
3. February 27: The lower house of the German parliament (the Bundestag) votes on Greek aid package
4. February 28: The European Central Bank will hold its second, three-year long-term refinancing operation (LTRO). In the first iteration of LTRO, the banks requested and received 489 billion euros ($643 billion) of funding at one percent.
5. March 1-2: EU leaders meet in Brussels
6. March 6: Greece means to complete the private sector bond swap by this date
7. March 8: ECB holds rate meeting
8. March 12: Euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels
9. March 20: Greece redeems 14.4 billion euros of bonds (they won't have the funds to pay off this debt without the second bailout)
10. March 30: Euro-area finance ministers meet in Copenhagen
THE WEEK AHEAD:
Mon 2/20: US MARKETS CLOSED FOR PRESIDENT'S DAY
Eurozone finance ministers weigh 2nd Greek bailout of $172 billion
Tues 2/21:
Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Kraft, Macy's, Saks
8:30: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Weds 2/22:
Hewlett-Packard
7:00 Weekly mortgage applications
10:00 Existing Home Sales
Thurs 2/23:
AIG, Gap, Target
8:30 Weekly Claims
10:00 FHFA House Price Index
Fri 2/24:
Sears
9:55 Consumer Sentiment
10:00 New Home Sales
Sat 2/25:
G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Mexico City