There are, of course, a million and one reasons I could be wrong. The most likely one, in my mind, would be wholesale defections by superdelegates who come to the purely selfish conclusion that they themselves would do better on a ticket headed by Obama. I'm sure you'll let me know about the other million possibilities in comments.
THE NOMINATION....Matt predicts that Hillary will win the Democratic nomination. That's still my guess too — though barely, of course. My reasoning is super simplistic: with Super Tuesday over and both candidates essentially tied, the rest of the primary season will be one long stretch of trench warfare. And there's no one better at trench warfare than the Clintons.