Short Take: Sixteen candidates may seem like a lot, but history says otherwise

Sweet 16. No, not the final games March Madness - we're talking about the current number of GOP candidates in the race for the White House.

If it sounds like a lot - it is - at least in recent history. Sixteen is the largest number of candidates to throw their hats in the ring for either party since 1976, the year historians say marks the beginning of the modern primary system we see today. But 16 is not an outrageous number. In 1924, 41 candidates appeared on the ballot at the Democratic National Convention. But those were the days of back-door dealing at conventions, not like the modern day free-for-all we see on television, Facebook, and Twitter.

"With more than 5 or so candidates, it just turns into a personality contest or shouting match... It just gets too hard for voters to differentiate the finer points of individual views," said Jon Grinspan, Jefferson Fellow and curator at the Smithsonian's National Museum of American History. He also argues that a large number of candidates suggests cultural divides and disagreements within a party.

So why are so many big name Republicans in the race? Two words: President Obama. After 8 years of one President, the opposing party often struggles to find a unified identity to offer voters a real change. Obama has achieved many victories during his term: Obamacare, same-sex marriage decision, the landmark nuclear deal with Iran, and most recently, reestablished relations with Cuba - not to mention an economy that's rebounded from the low points of the recession. Meanwhile, Republicans are struggling to find consensus on issues like immigration--key to attracting Hispanic voters in 2016. This isn't the first time this has happened. In 1988 after two terms of Republican victories, President Reagan set the stage for his Republican successor and established candidate, Vice President George H.W. Bush. Like the GOP today, Democrats were looking for a leader. They had 13 candidates - Joe Biden, Jesse Jackson, and Al Gore, to name a few - vying for the nomination in the 1988 election. In the end, Democrats chose Michael Dukakis who only claimed 10 states in the general election.

"After two term presidents, who've won big elections as well as legislative and judicial battles, the opposing party has few victorious leaders to point to," said Grinspan. "Instead it's the loudest, most combative, figures who often vent the party's frustrations."

But the bad news for both parties in 2016: Grinspan warns, a long and messy campaign season with too many over-the-top personalities fighting for the spotlight could turn voters away from the polls come November. That is, if history repeats itself.