Poll: Kerry Would Top Bush Today

If last year's presidential election were being held today, the results might well be different than the results of a year ago. 41% of registered voters say that if the 2004 election were being held today, they would cast their ballot for Democratic candidate John Kerry, while 36% say they would vote for President George W. Bush. 13% say they would vote for someone else, and 6% wouldn't vote at all.

IF 2004 ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY…
(Registered Voters)

John Kerry
41%
George W. Bush
36%
Someone else
13%
Not vote
6%

In this poll, 12% of registered voters said they didn't vote in 2004. Among those who did vote, 45% said they voted for Kerry last year, and 46% said they voted for President Bush. 2% reported voting for Nader, and 7% won't say for whom they voted.

If the election were held this year, both candidates would retain more than eight in ten of the voters who supported them last year, according to this poll. But President Bush would lose about 3% of those who said they voted for him last year to his Democratic opponent. And although none of those who supported Kerry last year would now vote for Bush, 13% say they would support another candidate. But among voters who either didn't vote in 2004 or voted for another candidate, or refused to say for whom they voted, Kerry leads Bush by 34% to 11%.

IF 2004 ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY…
(Registered Voters)

In 2004, voted for: Kerry
John Kerry
81%
George W. Bush
-
Someone else
13%
Not vote
4%

In 2004, voted for: Bush
John Kerry
3%
George W. Bush
84%
Someone else
7%
Not vote
3%

In 2004, voted for: Other/didn't vote
John Kerry
34%
George W. Bush
11%
Someone else
23%
Not vote
16%

This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 936 adults, including 828 registered voters, interviewed by telephone October 30-November 1, 2005. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points.