Poll: Huckabee Soars Into GOP's Top Tier

Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee's meteoric rise in the polls is not, it turns out, an Iowa-only phenomenon. According to a new CBS News/New York Times poll, the former Arkansas governor is running neck-and-neck with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the race for the support of GOP primary voters nationwide, and all the momentum is on Huckabee's side.

Huckabee was supported by 21 percent in the poll, up from a mere 4 percent in October, thanks largely to a swell in support from Christian conservatives. He trails Giuliani by only 1 percentage point - a statistically insignificant margin. While Huckabee's support has more than quintupled in the past two months, Giuliani has seen his fall by 7 percent.

While Huckabee's rise in Iowa - he now leads the field there, according to some polls - corresponds to increased support nationally, the same cannot be said of the Democratic race. Polls in the Hawkeye State have shown Barack Obama catching up to, and in some cases overtaking, party front-runner Hillary Clinton.

But the CBS News/New York Times poll of Democratic primary voters nationally found the race only somewhat closer than before, with Clinton leading Obama, 44 percent to 27 percent. That margin represents a slight narrowing since October, when Clinton held a 28-percent edge over Obama, but it also nearly mirrors the advantage she held in September.

The shifts in the presidential race come as Americans are increasingly pessimistic about the economy and the country's overall direction - not since the beginnings of the early-90s recession have so few Americans thought the economy was on an upward track. They also continue to strongly disapprove of both President Bush and the Democrat-led Congress, though, in a good sign for Democrats running in 2008, give the party an edge over the GOP on questions concerning Iraq and the economy.

One bit of good news for Republicans: Americans are somewhat more optimistic about the war in Iraq, with nearly 40 percent now saying the war is going well - only 22 percent said so in June.

The Republicans

While Giuliani and Huckabee led among GOP primary voters, Mitt Romney - seen as Huckabee's top rival for the support of Christian conservative voters - also saw his support increase slightly, from 12 percent in October to 16 percent now. Both John McCain and Fred Thompson have seen their support crumble. Thompson has seen the most dramatic drop, falling from 21 percent in October - good enough for second place - to 7 percent now, tying him with McCain for fourth place.

However, Republican primary voters, as a group, remain fluid, suggesting there is still room for movement in the GOP field. Only 23 percent said they had made up their mind in the race, while 76 percent said it was too early to settle on one candidate.

The rise in Huckabee's support, not surprisingly, comes from the strong gains he has made among the Republican Party's influential contingent of Christian conservatives. The ordained Baptist minister commands the support of 34 percent of white evangelicals, eclipsing his nearest rival, Giuliani, by 19 percent. He has also made impressive gains among those who identify as conservative or as weekly church-goers.

His gains come even as Republicans remain skeptical about his ability to win in the general election, indicating that "electability" is not a priority in the race for the nomination. Only 13 percent thought Huckabee was the most electable, compared to 43 percent who said so about Giuliani and 18 percent who said Romney would be the party's best candidate in November 2008.

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Read The Complete CBS News/NY Times Poll On The Republican Race
The Democratic Race
The Nation: The Economy, Government Weakens While Iraq Improves
From Horserace: Behind The Numbers

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While Romney's support showed only modest gains in the poll compared to October, it appears he has been successful in persuading voters they could support a Mormon candidate for president - 52 percent of GOP primary voters said most people they knew would vote for a Mormon, up from 36 percent in June.

Interestingly, large numbers of GOP voters (45 percent) and all voters (55 percent) still don't know Romney is Mormon. This comes despite Romney's delivery of a well-publicized speech on faith and politics on Dec. 6, toward the beginning of the polling period.

The Democrats

The dramatic shifts seen in the Republican race were not reflected among Democrats. Clinton led the field with 44 percent support, trailed by Obama at 27 percent. John Edwards, who is also competitive in Iowa, was a distant third place nationally at 11 percent. All other candidates' support was in the single digits.

While these numbers show a slight decrease in Clinton's support and a modest uptick in Obama's, they indicate the race has only returned to where it was in the late summer.

One piece of encouraging news for Clinton is the depth of her support - 58 percent of those who said they were backing Clinton "strongly favor" the former first lady, compared to only 48 percent of Obama supporters. This suggests that a narrow loss in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses may not cause mass-defections from the Clinton camp. She is also widely seen as having the best chance of prevailing in the general election: More than 6-in-10 Democratic voters said she had the best chance of winning the presidency, compared to only 14 percent for Obama and 10 percent for Edwards.

Clinton and Obama have spent the campaign sparring over what is the most compelling feature in a candidate: experience versus new ideas. Democratic voters are split nearly evenly on what they prefer in a presidential candidate, but Clinton has succeeded in persuading one-third of those who want new ideas to vote for her. Meanwhile, Obama has the backing of only 11 percent of Democrats who are focused on experience.

Yet the strongest source of Clinton's support may not be the candidate herself. When her supporters were asked why they were backing the New York senator, topping the list was her husband, former President Bill Clinton, at 26 percent. Those supporting Hillary Clinton because of her relationship with Mr. Clinton barely outnumbered those siding with her because of her experience, who comprised 23 percent of her supporters.

Mr. Clinton's campaigning on his wife's behalf appears to benefit her: 44 percent said having the former president on the trail made them more likely to support Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, only 1 percent said the same concerning Obama's most famous backer, talk-show host and entertainment mogul Oprah Winfrey - 80 percent said her support made no difference in their decision.

The poll also contains data that rebuts claims made by Clinton's detractors in both parties that she is a polarizing presence. By a more than 2-to-1 margin, Democrats believe Clinton will bring Americans together rather than divide them. She was also seen as being prepared to be president by 83 percent of respondents, compared to only 41 percent who said so about Obama, and 36 percent for Edwards.

Clinton is also extremely well-liked by Democratic voters - 68 percent had a favorable opinion of her, compared to 54 percent for Obama and 36 percent for Edwards. However, all three had a low disapproval rating of 14 percent, a reflection of the fact that, despite constant media coverage of the race, nearly one-third of Democrats didn't have an opinion of Obama and 50 percent said the same of Edwards, the party's 2004 vice presidential nominee.

That contrasts with data showing that three-fourths of registered voters are paying at least some attention to the campaign - higher at this point than in any campaign since CBS News began asking this question in late 1987.

The National Mood

The poll indicates that, despite congressional Democrats inability to enact much of their platform, they are entering 2008 in a favorable political environment, thanks to growing anxiety over the economy and persistent pessimism regarding the country's direction - both of which are generally bad news for the party in control of the White House.

While the public was split nearly evenly on the state of the economy in October, the escalating housing crisis and other signs of a potential economic slowdown appear to have tipped the scales: now 57 percent say the economy is in bad condition, with 53 percent saying it is getting worse.

The dour economic outlook is coupled with numbers showing a large majority of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction: 71 percent said America is on the wrong track, compared to only 21 percent who said it was headed in the right direction. These numbers have been relatively stable since 2006.

Given these results, it is unsurprising that President Bush's job approval rating remains near his record low, with 28 percent approving of his performance, down from 30 percent in October. That is only 1 percent higher than his worst rating, recorded in June. As expected, Democrats and independents are the chief drivers of Bush's low ratings. Two-thirds of Republicans still approve of his performance.

But majorities in all three groups give a thumbs-down to the Democratic Congress, which has failed to force a timetable for troop withdrawal from Iraq or enact an expansion of children's health insurance, among other legislative priorities. Only 21 percent of Americans approve of Congress, compared to 64 percent who disapprove. These numbers represent Congress' worst ratings since Democrats took over the House and Senate in January.

While the public still holds a negative view of the war in Iraq, there are signs that reported declines in violence and U.S. and civilian casualties have made Americans somewhat more hopeful. While only 22 percent believed the war was going well in June, now 37 percent do. The public is also split on whether an escalation in troop levels has made things better or had no impact, but only 12 percent believe the so-called surge has made the situation worse.

However, 75 percent of Americans would still like to see a large-scale withdrawal from Iraq within two years, and 60 percent still view the conflict as a stalemate - a number largely unchanged from a year ago.