Oscars: Possible Shockers
They're not all locks.
Although common wisdom says Oscar will be going home with Forest Whitaker, Helen Mirren, Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson, it's not a good idea to count your chickens before they're hatched, even when the chickens are wearing tuxes and designer gowns.
Entertainment contributor Jess Cagle, who is also assistant managing editor at People magazine, appeared on The Saturday Early Show on Oscar eve to talk about a few possible surprising scenarios.
It is a low-budget film, an unassuming movie that Cagle says "is beloved by the Academy. People just love this movie, so it could sneak in and win."
"But," Cagle continues, "Alan Arkin is a sentimental favorite. He was part of 'Little Miss Sunshine,' which people loved, and people loved him in the movie. He was a popular actor. Some say he was better-liked than Eddie Murphy is. There's a chance he could sneak it out. But I am excited about seeing Eddie Murphy win an Oscar."Photos: Alan Arkin
"I think she'll win," he predicts, but adds that there are also strong performances from Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, both of "Babel," and, he reminds fans, "Cate Blanchett is in that category — no slouch, either."
In three other major categories, Cagle does not expect any surprises.
Best Actor: If Peter O'Toole wins, that would be a huge upset. O'Toole has been nominated seven times and he has never won an Oscar. "It could happen," says Cagle. "If there is a shocker, it would be that O'Toole takes it."
But Cagle points out that O'Toole has formidable competition in Forest Whitaker, and so his chances of winning are not great.
Best Actress: Helen Mirren is the queen in more ways than one. Cagle says he doesn't think there is any chance of a shocker in this category, adding, "I think Mirren is as sure a bet as you can have."
Best Director: It's Martin Scorsese's year. After five nominations, it's time for him to win. "I do not expect an upset in that category," Cagle says flatly. "I think, finally, Marty will get it, and people are very excited out here to give it to him."
The fact that five African-American performers are nominated in the major acting categories is an Oscar record. (They are Will Smith, Forest Whitaker, Djimon Hounsou, Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson.) Is this a significant change in Hollywood?
"It does signal a change in that … there are better roles every year for African-American actors," says Cagle. "One of the reasons for that is, younger audiences are color blind. The conventional wisdom in Hollywood used to be that 'white audiences' would not go to a 'black movie.'
"That's no longer true," Cagle continues. "You cannot say white audiences will not listen to black music."
He concludes, "Younger audiences are color blind. Look at 'Dreamgirls.' The movie made $100 million."