Katie Couric's Notebook: Midterm Election Forecast

With all the talk of tsunamis, tidal waves and surges, it's hard to tell if I'm watching a political report or the weather channel these days.

Despite a gloomy forecast for Democrats, Senator Robert Menendez tried to spread a little sunshine...touting some early voting tabs in key states...including California, Wisconsin and Washington.

But when a steadily increasing number of Independents are leaning Republican, as Politico reports, a wave is coming. The question is, how big will it be?

Republicans only need 39 pick ups to win the House, and there are 77 Democratic seats at risk for turnover.

The key to holding ground in Congress will be getting out the vote among the president's core supporters...young people, African Americans, and women.

That's where President Obama's focus will be in these final antediluvian days...as he tries to keep a tide from reaching biblical proportions.

That's a page from my notebook.

I'm Katie Couric, CBS News.

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