General's Desk: Debunking Doomsday
CBS News Analyst Gen. Perry Smith examines the worst-case scenarios for the war against Iraq, and tells why they may be based more on fear than fact - especially as the allied advance pushes closer and closer to Baghdad.
Many pundits and "experts" have predicted a number of scenarios that would make the war against Iraq especially difficult.
Most of these predictions have not come true in the first few days of the campaign and, in my judgment, are not likely to come true as the war continues to its end.
Let me outline these predictions and provide my best judgment on why these Iraqi actions have not occurred and, more importantly, are unlikely to take place in the future.
It is quite difficult to analyze why Saddam has not taken the actions outlined above.
However, some knowledgeable analysts feel that Saddam chose not to take these actions prior to the beginning of hostilities or during the early days of the war because he thought he would win the war by inflicting heavy casualties on the Americans and causing the U. S. to give up the cause.
I agree with these analysts. After observing the Americans leaving Vietnam in the 1975, Lebanon in the 1984 and Somalia in 1994, Saddam made the judgment that American governments have a very low tolerance for U.S. casualties and will cut and run quite quickly when combat deaths mount.
Hence, thinking he was going to win the present war, there was no reason to take these actions.
When the end is near, his options will become fewer and fewer and it will be less and less likely that his commanders will follow his orders in any case.
When I asked an expert on these matters, CBS News Analyst Steve Black, when Saddam will realize that he will lose this war, Black answered, "Thirty seconds before we kick down the door in his hiding place."
Major General Perry M Smith, USAF (ret.) is a consultant to CBS News. He is the author of six books including Rules and Tools for Leaders, Assignment Pentagon, A Hero Among Heroes and The Air Force Plans for Peace. His email address is genpsmith@aol.com.
By Perry M. Smith